فهرست مطالب

مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران - پیاپی 24 (زمستان 1396)

فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 24 (زمستان 1396)

  • 274 صفحه، بهای روی جلد: 100,000ريال
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1396/10/10
  • تعداد عناوین: 10
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  • محمدعلی احسانی*، صالح طاهری بازخانه صفحات 1-22
    بررسی رابطه ی بین پس انداز و سرمایه گذاری یکی از موضوعات اساسی در اقتصاد کلان است. این مهم پس از مطالعه ی فلدشتاین و هوریوکا (1980) توجه بیش تری را به خود جلب کرده است. براساس معمای فلدشتاین – هوریوکا، در کشورهایی با تحرک بین المللی اندک سرمایه، بین نرخ سرمایه گذاری و نرخ پس انداز داخلی ارتباطی مثبت و ضعیف برقرار است. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر به بررسی اثر غیرخطی پس انداز بر سرمایه گذاری در ایران می پردازد. برای این منظور، از رهیافت چرخشی مارکوف در سه بازه ی زمانی قبل و بعد از پیروزی انقلاب اسلامی و هم چنین طی 1391:4 – 1347:2 استفاده شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در بازه ی زمانی اول، ضریب پس انداز - فارغ از وضعیت سرمایه گذاری- مقدار کمی داشته و معمای فلدشتاین – هوریوکا صادق است. در بازه های زمانی دوم و سوم، اثرگذاری پس انداز از ثبات برخوردار نبوده و شدیدا به وضعیت سرمایه گذاری بستگی دارد؛ ضریب پس انداز هنگامی که سرمایه گذاری در فاز رکود باشد کم تر از 5/0 برآورد شده است، با بهبود وضعیت سرمایه گذاری و خروج از رکود، ضریب مذکور بیشتر از 5/0 خواهد شد. در مجموع، با در نظر گرفتن نقد لوکاس مبنی بر تغییر انتظارات عاملان اقتصادی، نمی توان معمای فلدشتاین – هوریوکا را برای اقتصاد ایران مورد تایید قرار داد.
    کلیدواژگان: پس انداز، سرمایه گذاری، معمای فلدشتاین - هوریوکا، الگوی چرخشی مارکوف
  • محسن مهرآرا *، سمانه سیجانی، عباس رضازاده کارسالاری صفحات 23-47
    امروزه صادرات را به عنوان محور رشد و توسعه اقتصادی معرفی می کنند. کشورهایی مانند کره جنوبی، مالزی و ترکیه و هند از استراتژی توسعه صادرات برای بالا بردن رشد اقتصادی خود بهره برده و به نتایج رضایت بخشی دست یافته اند. با توجه به اهمیت نقش صادرات در افزایش رشد اقتصادی، شناسایی عوامل موثر بر صادرات ضروری است. بر این اساس در مقاله حاضر نقش عوامل تاثیرگذار بر صادرات با تکنولوژی بالا را مورد مطالعه قرار داده ایم. به این منظور، پس از شناسایی متغیرهای موثر بر صادرات با استفاده از روش «میانگین گیری مدل بیزین» و «متوسط گیری والس» به بررسی جهت و شدت تاثیر این متغیرها بر صادرات پرداخته ایم. نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل نشان می دهد که کیفیت نهادی، سرمایه انسانی و واردات با احتمال قطعی مهم ترین عوامل تاثیرگذار بر صادرات با تکنولوژی بالا در کشورهای درحال توسعه هستند؛ اما متغیر قیمتی نرخ ارز حقیقی موثر برخلاف آنچه الگوهای استاندارد پیش بینی می کنند کمترین اهمیت را در پیش بینی تحولات صادرات با تکنولوژی بالا داشته است.
    کلیدواژگان: صادرات با تکنولوژی بالا، میانگین گیری مدل بیزین، متوسط گیری والس، کشورهای درحال توسعه
  • کامران محمودپور *، محمدنبی شهیکی تاش، محمدحسن فطرس صفحات 49-73
    پژوهش جاری به دنبال مطالعه ساختار بازار متشکل پولی ایران براساس رویکرد تابع چند محصولی و الگوی اثرات مختلط/چند سطحی است، بخش نخست این مقاله با برآورد تابع هزینه چندمحصولی ترانسلوگ صرفه های ناشی از تنوع محصولات بانکی در بازار متشکل پولی ایران برآورد شده است. در بخش دوم مقاله، هدف اصلی پژوهش یعنی بررسی تاثیر صرفه های ناشی از تنوع اقتصادی بر ساختار بازار متشکل پولی کشور، شامل 18 بانک فعال در بازه ی زمانی 93-1387 مورد بررسی قرارگرفته است. برای ارزیابی رقابت در صنعت بانکداری ابتدا آماره پنراز و راس (یکی از معیارهای ارزیابی رقابت) برای دو حالت برآورد شده، حالت اول آماره پنراز و راس معمولی برآورد شده و سپس در حالت دوم با استفاده از نتایج الگوی اثرات مختلط/چند سطحی در راستای بررسی چگونگی افزایش قدرت بازاری هنگامی که ماهیت ارائه چند محصولی باشد آماره پنراز و راس تعمیم یافته برآورد شده است. تغییرات در آمارهH پنراز و راس به دلیل وجود صرفه های ناشی از تنوع در صنعت بانکداری میزان تغییرات در قدرت انحصاری، بازار متشکل پولی کشور را نشان می دهد. یافته های تحقیق نشان می دهد که با افزایش میزان تنوع محصول ارائه شده توسط بازار متشکل پولی کشور، میزان آماره H پنراز و راس کمتر شده و به طبع میزان قدرت انحصاری افزایش یافته است؛ بنابراین اندازه و مقیاس اقتصادی در صنعت بانکداری، افزایش قدرت بازاری را به همراه داشته است.
    کلیدواژگان: بازار متشکل پولی ایران، صرفه های ناشی از تنوع، الگوی اثرات مختلط -چند سطح، ساختار بازار، مدل پنراز و راس تعمیم یافت
  • علیرضا عرفانی*، ازاده طالب بیدختی صفحات 75-94
    در این مطالعه علاوه بر بررسی نقش سیاست پولی بر دستیابی به اهداف متداول سیاستی ثبات تورم و ثبات تولید، به بررسی نقش آن و نیز نقش اهرم مالی بر بهبود ثبات مالی از طریق کنترل نرخ رشد اعتبارات اعطایی بانکی می پردازیم. برای این منظور ابتدا با استفاده از مدل چرخشی مارکف به برآورد قاعده سیاستی پرداخته شد که در آن نرخ رشد پایه پولی در واکنش به شکاف تورم و شکاف تولید تعدیل می شود. نتایج نشان داد که بانک مرکزی بیشتر به دنبال دستیابی به هدف ثبات اقتصادی از طریق اعمال سیاست پولی انبساطی بوده است؛ به طوری که دستیابی به این هدف از پایداری و دوام بالاتری نسبت به هدف ثبات تورم در طی دوره زمانی مورد مطالعه در اقتصاد ایران برخوردار می باشد. در ادامه، یک قاعده سیاستی برآورد می شود که در آن نرخ رشد اعتبارات اعطایی به بخش خصوصی (به عنوان معیار ثبات مالی)، در واکنش به شوک سیاست پولی و اهرم مالی (نسبت بدهی بخش خصوصی به تولید) تعدیل می شود. نتایج نشان داد که در طی سال های تحت مطالعه، از شاخص اهرم مالی به عنوان شاخص احتیاطی برای مقابله با ریسک سیستماتیک و دستیابی به ثبات مالی استفاده نشده است؛ به طوری که علی رغم بدتر شدن وضعیت ترازنامه کارآفرینان از طریق افزایش بدهی بخش خصوصی، رشد اعتبارات اعطایی به بخش های اقتصاد نیز افزایش یافته است. با این وجود نتایج بیانگر عملکرد مناسب سیاست گذار پولی در بهبود ثبات مالی از طریق کنترل نرخ رشد اعتبارات اعطایی می باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: سیاست پولی، اهرم مالی، ثبات مالی، اقتصاد ایران
  • جعفر عبادی، ناصر الهی، محمدعلی امیرزرگر، جلال مولابیگی* صفحات 95-123
    ضرورت طراحی مکانیسم‏ تبادل از این جهت است که برخی از بازارها به دلیل پراکنده بودن عرضه کنندگان و تقاضاکنندگان شکل نمی گیرند. به عبارت دیگر، بازار در این حالت از یک ویژگی نحیف بودن و یا لاغری رنج می برد که برای برطرف کردن این ضعف در این نوع بازارها باید مکانیسم هایی ابداع شود که بر مشکل اشاره شده فائق آید. بازار کلیه یا به عبارت دیگر سازوکار تبادل کلیه یک نمونه واقعی از این نوع بازارها است. به همین منظور پیشنهاد می شود برای ایجاد بازار و یا مکانیسم تبادل، اطلاعات اهداکنندگان کلیه و بیماران در اتاق تسویه ای ثبت شوند و بعد از پردازش این اطلاعات و مشخص کردن ترجیحات بیماران، از طریق الگوریتم بهم رسانی، زوج های سازگار را به هم تطبیق داد و مبادله کلیه را تسهیل نمود. این پژوهش در سال 1395 برای استان همدان با بهره گیری از تئوری تطبیق که خود زیرشاخه ای از طراحی بازار و طراحی سازوکار است با استفاده از اطلاعات 40 نفر که 20 نفر آن ها بیمار دیالیزی و 20 نفر دیگر اهداکنندگان کلیه بودند، انجام گرفت. اطلاعات اولیه بیماران در اتاق تسویه ای ثبت شد و بعد از انجام آزمایش‏های خونی و بافتی و مشخص کردن ترجیحات بیماران، مشخص شد که از طریق الگوریتم بهم رسانی به تعداد 17 زوج از 20 زوج انتخابی، می توانند پیوند کلیه دریافت کنند. نتایج حاصله نشان می دهد نه تنها با به کارگیری مکانیسم تطبیق تعداد پیوند ها نسبت به حالت قبل نزدیک به دو برابر افزایش داشته بلکه با به کارگیری این مکانیسم، حداقل به اندازه 163817796 ریال برای هر بیمار، صرفه جویی اقتصادی برای کشور در پی خواهد داشت.
    کلیدواژگان: طراحی سازوکار، طراحی بازار، تئوری تطبیق، مدل مبادله کلیه، الگوریتم بهم رسانی
  • ابوالفضل شاه آبادی*، راضیه داوری کیش صفحات 125-151
    بهبود عملکرد بخش بانکی زمینه را برای تجهیز منابع مالی، تقویت حس سپرده گذاری در بخش بانکی و هدایت وجوه اندک سپرده گذاران به سمت فعالیت های تولیدی فراهم می نماید؛ بنابراین، شناسایی عوامل موثر بر بهبود عملکرد بخش بانکی برای پیشبرد اهداف کلان اقتصادی ضرورت دارد. بدین منظور، پژوهش حاضر به بررسی تاثیر شاخص آزادی اقتصادی، تولید ناخالص داخلی، حجم نقدینگی و عوامل تعیین کننده آن ها و نرخ سود واقعی بر عملکرد بانکی ایران، با استفاده از معادلات همزمان به روش 3SLS، طی دوره 1393-1363 می پردازد. در این پژوهش نسبت سپرده های دیداری و سپرده های غیردیداری نزد بانک ها و موسسات اعتباری غیربانکی به تولید ناخالص داخلی و نسبت بدهی های بخش غیردولتی به مجموع بدهی های بخش دولتی و غیردولتی که از مهم ترین شاخص های ارزیابی عملکرد بانک ها و مرتبط با ساختار مالکیت بانک ها هستند و به عنوان شاخصی برای ارزیابی تسویه بدهی های دولتی و غیردولتی و کارایی سیستم بانکی در به کارگیری منابع بخش خصوصی در بخش تولید در نظر گرفته می شوند. نتایج مطالعه بیانگر، متغیرهای آزادی اقتصادی، تولید ناخالص داخلی و حجم نقدینگی رابطه مثبت و معناداری با عملکرد بانکی دارند و تاثیر متغیر نرخ سود واقعی نیز بی معنا است. همچنین متغیرهای نسبت صادرات نفت و گاز به تولید ناخالص داخلی، نرخ تورم و آزادی مدنی تاثیر منفی و معنادار و سرمایه انسانی نیز تاثیر معناداری بر آزادی اقتصادی ندارد. متغیرهای سرمایه فیزیکی، انباشت مخارج تحقیق و توسعه و اشتغال تاثیر مثبت و معنادار و سرمایه انسانی نیز تاثیر معناداری بر تولید ناخالص داخلی ندارد. همچنین حجم نقدینگی نیز با افزایش دارایی های و بدهی های بانک مرکزی به ترتیب افزایش و کاهش می یابد.
    کلیدواژگان: عملکرد بانکی، حجم نقدینگی، معادلات همزمان، ایران
  • پرویز محمدزاده، حسن عبدی*، داود بهبودی، محمدباقر بهشتی صفحات 153-175
    تنها راهکار اقتصادی درمان رکود و تورم در کشور افزایش عرضه و تولید است که از مسیر دانش، خلاقیت، نوآوری و کارآفرینی می گذرد و برای دستیابی به توسعه و تداوم آن باید روی این مسیر سرمایه گذاری کرد. هدف اصلی این مطالعه شناسایی عوامل تعیین کننده موفقیت کارآفرینان در شهرک صنعتی شهید سلیمی تبریز است که با در نظر گرفتن عوامل جمعیتی و عوامل محیطی در تلاش است تا موفقیت کارآفرینان را توضیح دهد. اطلاعات موردنظر از 121 فعال اقتصادی شهرک صنعتی به روش نمونه گیری تصادفی به دست آمد و سپس با استفاده از الگوهای گسسته لاجیت و پروبیت، مدل اقتصادسنجی تصریح و تخمین زده شد. نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل نشان می دهد که سطح تجربه، سرمایه فیزیکی، حمایت های مالی و غیرمالی دولت، نگرش به کارآفرینی، ارزش های ذهنی و باور به خودکارآمدی تاثیر مثبت و معنی داری بر موفقیت کارآفرینان داشته است. همچنین متغیر سطح تحصیلات نیز دارای تاثیر منفی و معنی دار بر سطح موفقیت کارآفرینان بوده است؛ بنابراین با توجه به اهمیت کارآفرینی در کشور توصیه می شود که زمینه های تقویت متغیرهای اثرگذار بر کارآفرینی فراهم گردد و در زمینه کیفیت تحصیلات در کشور یک بازنگری اساسی صورت گیرد.
    کلیدواژگان: موفقیت کارآفرینان، سطح تحصیلات، سطح تجربه، سرمایه فیزیکی، حمایت های مالی و غیرمالی دولت، مدل لاجیت و پروبیت
  • باقر درویشی*، مهین احمدی خواه صفحات 177-198
    هدف اصلی این مقاله اندازه گیری رشد فقرزدا در مشاغل مزد و حقوق بگیر (عمومی، تعاونی و خصوصی) و مشاغل آزاد (کشاورزی و غیرکشاورزی) با استفاده از مدل کاکوانی و همکاران (2004) و داده های هزینه و درآمد خانوار های کشور، در طی پنج برنامه توسعه است. نتایج نشان می دهد که در دو برنامه اول توسعه رشد به نفع مزد و حقوق بگیران و خصوصا در بخش عمومی عمل کرده و برای مشاغل آزاد فقرزا بوده؛ اما در برنامه سوم رشد در مشاغل آزاد و مزد و حقوق بگیر (به استثنای بخش عمومی) فقرزدا است. رکود تورمی برنامه های چهارم و پنجم توسعه نیز در همه گروه های شغلی (به جز مزد و حقوق بگیران بخش تعاونی مناطق روستایی در برنامه چهارم) به فقرا آسیب رسانده است در نتیجه اگرچه ممکن است رشد اقتصادی برای همه گروه های شغلی فقرزدا نباشد؛ اما رکود تورمی به طور قطع برای اکثر آنها فقرزا خواهد بود. براساس نتایج این مقاله افزایش فقر در کشور گاهی ناشی از رشد و گاهی ناشی از نابرابری بوده لذا برای تعدیل فقر توصیه می شود که در برنامه های توسعه، رشد و سیاست های بازتوزیعی به صورت توام مورد توجه قرار گیرند؛ زیرا توجه صرف به سیاست های باز توزیع محور (مانند برنامه چهارم و پنجم) و یا سیاست های رشد محور (مانند برنامه های اول و دوم) فقر را در اکثر گروه های شغلی تشدید خواهد کرد.
    کلیدواژگان: رشد اقتصادی، نابرابری، فقر، رشد فقرزدا، برنامه های توسعه
  • علی خواجه محمدلو*، حسن خداویسی صفحات 199-221
    متغیر نرخ بهره از مهم ترین ابزارهای کارآمد در امر سیاست گذاری اقتصادی، ایجاد ثبات و رشد اقتصادی می باشد. عدم بهره گیری از تغییرات این نرخ، نه تنها پویایی سیستم بانکی بلکه به تبع آن کل سیستم اقتصاد را زیر سوال می برد. از آن جا که عوامل زیادی در تغییرات نرخ بهره نقش دارند، برخلاف سایر مطالعات انجام گرفته در ایران، در این پژوهش علاوه بر استفاده از روش های نوین اقتصادسنجی، تنها روابط میان نرخ ارز، نرخ تورم و نرخ بهره به عنوان هدف اصلی مقاله حاضر در چارچوب تئوری های اقتصادی بدون وارد کردن متغیرهای سرمایه گذاری، رشد اقتصادی و سایر متغیرها به الگو با استفاده از روش خود رگرسیون برداری (VAR) طی دوره زمانی 93-1360 بررسی شده است. نتایج حاصل از آزمون یوهانسن و برآورد الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری (VECM) نشان داد که در بلندمدت نرخ تورم تاثیر منفی معنی دار و نرخ ارز بدون تاثیر بر نرخ بهره می باشند. همچنین بررسی روابط کوتاه مدت نشان داد که در کوتاه مدت نرخ ارز تاثیر مثبت معنی دار و نرخ تورم بدون تاثیر بر نرخ بهره می باشند. به عبارت دیگر تئوری اثر و بین المللی فیشر در اقتصاد ایران، رد می شوند.
    کلیدواژگان: تئوری فیشر، نرخ ارز، نرخ تورم، الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری (VECM)، آزمون همجمعی
  • منیره رفعت * صفحات 223-247
    در چند دهه اخیر، جهانی شدن بر اکثر شاخص های اقتصاد اثر گذاشته است. در این راستا یکی از مهم ترین سوال های پیش روی اقتصاددانان این است که جهانی شدن سبب چه تغییراتی در اندازه دولت می شود؟
    هدف مقاله حاضر آزمون فرضیه ی کارایی و جبرانی در بررسی اثر جهانی شدن بر مخارج کارا و غیرکارای دولت ایران در بازه ی زمانی 94-1368 است. در این مقاله مخارج دولت ابتدا به مخارج سرمایه ای و مصرفی و سپس به اجزا کارا و غیرکارا تقسیم بندی شده و رابطه میان شاخص های مختلف جهانی شدن بر آنها در قالب یک الگوی اقتصادسنجی، با استفاده از به کارگیری متغیرهای ابزاری و روش حداقل مربعات دومرحله ای (2SLS) مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرارمی گیرد.
    نتایج به دست آمده حاکی از این است که شاخص KOF و زیر شاخص های اقتصادی و اجتماعی آن و باز بودن تجاری (با ضریب 27/6) تاثیر مثبت و معنی داری بر مخارج مصرفی دولت دارند. همچنین باز بودن مالی (با ضریب 34/4-) اثر کاهشی و باز بودن تجاری (با ضریب 23/2) اثر مثبت بر مخارج سرمایه ای دولت دارد. به این ترتیب مطابق با فرضیه ی کارایی، جهانی شدن منجر به کاهش مخارج سرمایه ای دولت شده است.
    همچنین بررسی تاثیر شاخص های جهانی شدن به ویژه دو شاخص باز بودن تجاری و مالی بر اجزا کارا و غیرکارای مخارج دولت تا حدود زیادی موید فرضیه ی کارایی می باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: باز بودن تجاری، باز بودن مالی، مخارج کارا و غیرکارای دولت، شاخص جهانی شدن KOF
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  • Mohammad Ali Ehsani *, Saleh Taheri Pages 1-22
    Goal: Investigating the relationship between saving and investment is one of the major issues in macroeconomics. This issue has drawn increasing attention after Feldstein–Horioka’s study (1980). Based on their hypotheses, saving coefficient indicates the degree of international capital mobility. In a way that the fewer obstacles there are for the entry and the exit of capital, the more the aforementioned coefficient decreases. Feldstein–Horioka tested this hypothesis for OECD countries. But unexpectedly the saving coefficient was big. This contradiction which is known as Feldstein–Horioka puzzle, is one of the important puzzles in economics and has the reputation for being the mother of puzzles. After almost four decades, Feldstein--Horioka Puzzle has tested several times and has been open to challenging criticisms. One of the criticisms is ignoring Lucas's critique (1976) which centers around the instability of Pattern Coefficients encountering the policy changes. The present study is to examine Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle by applying Markov switching approach in Iran during the three periods before and after the victory of the Islamic Revolution (1356: 4 - 1339: 4 and 1391: 4 - 1357: 1) and also during 1391-4: 1347: 2. The issue is of noticeable importance for a couple of reasons: Firstly, Feldstein--Horioka Puzzle investigates the dynamics of the current account as an important issue in open macroeconomics and illustrates the relationship between saving and investment. Secondly, it can be used for the evaluation of the degree of international capital mobility.
    Methodology
    To accomplish this, Markov switching approach has been used. Markov switching approach is one of the most famous non-linear patterns and uses several equations to explain the behavior of the variables in various regimes. By changing the equations in different regimes, the approach makes it possible for the model to explain complicated dynamic patterns. The core feature of the mechanism of regime change in this model depends on a situation variable which follows the characteristics of First order Markov chain. That’s why, the aforementioned approach is used to explain the data that illustrates various behavioral patterns at different times.
    Results
    Based on Feldstein—Horioka hypothesis (1980) Rate of saving rate in Iran’s economy- as a country with little international capital mobility- is high. The conclusions obtained from Markov switching approach indicated that when the investment in regime is zero (recession), saving coefficient is 0.196 and when the coefficient is 1 (boom), the coefficient is 0.744. When the investment lies in the boom phase, there will be a relatively high coefficient between the saving and investment which implies that Feldstein--Horioka Puzzle does not hold true. As long as the investment has a stagnant state and deteriorates the situation of macroeconomics, the saving coefficient will be high and Feldstein--Horioka Puzzle holds true.
    Conclusion
    Based on the above results, two important conclusions can be drawn: firstly, Feldstein--Horioka coefficient does not provides a proper description in Iran’s economy. Secondly, with regard to Locus critique, the saving coefficient being low is attributed to the change in the behavior of economic agents as a result of the lack of suitable prospect for investment. Therefore, the policy implications of this research are as follows:First, it is advisable to pay more attention to adopting policies that lead to an increase in domestic savings; Secondly, Enhance the economic and political status to increase foreign direct investment. In this regard, encouraging foreign investors, identifying and introducing investment situations and providing the appropriate framework for attracting foreign capital seems essential. Based on the results of the third period, the boom of investment is fluctuating. Hence, it is necessary to pay more attention to the stability of investment.
    Keywords: Savings, Investment, Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle, Markov Switching Approach
  • Mohsen Mehrara *, Samaneh Sijani, Abbas Rezazadeh Karsalari Pages 23-47
    Aim: The aim of the study is to examine the determinants of high-tech exports in developing countries during the period 1996 to 2013. One of the most important challenges of the empirical modeling is the selection of the potential variables that can be included in the econometric model, especially when there is a very wide range of explanatory variables. There is no acceptable way to solve this problem in the conventional econometric models. This article tries to fill this gap using Bayesian Model averaging and WALS econometrics approaches.
    Method
    In this article we studied the determinants of export for 24 developing countries during the period 1996 to 2013 based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Weighted-Average Least Square (WALS) technique.
    Findings: The institutional quality (with an average coefficient of 2.12), human capital (0.85), the ratio of imports to GDP (0.04) and logarithm of GDP (1.87) have definite effects on the exports with inclusion probability of 100%. The sign of these coefficients are as expected. The human capital implies the creation of the endogenous knowledge. The knowledge-based capital is one of the key inputs for productive activities according to the endogenous growth theories so that more human capital improves the quality and productivity and ultimately leads to greater exports. A country which has a greater GDP, can supply more various products. Therefore, the trade greatly depends on the size of the country in terms of GDP. In fact, economies with higher income are more interested in specialization and sophistication of the products and have more trades. Import as an important channel of international knowledge spillover has a positive effect on the high-tech export. Import also affects the host country's export through various channels. In the long term, the countries can accelerate export sophistication through the dissemination of the foreign knowledge. Imports of intermediate and capital goods causes the transfer of the new technology into the country and reduce their production costs leading to high-tech exports. Some developing countries import large quantities of intermediate and tech-intensive goods and export them after simple assembling and processing the complex final products. The existence or establishment of appropriate institutions can empower the endogenous growth and productivity and therefore provide competitiveness and sustainable growth in a country's exports. Especially, improving the institutional quality and the rule of law increases the security of property rights and contracts enforcements and therefore creates a safe environment for the development of new markets, strengthening human capital, domestic research and development and information and communication technology. It also increases the rate of return of the capitals and the incentives for domestic and foreign investments through reducing the risk, and ultimately fortifies the competitiveness and exports. The ratio of capital to labor as well as research and development expenditure to GDP with the probability of 99% have negative effects on the high-tech exports. The weighted average of these two variable's coefficients are respectively -0.68 and -0.89. The increase of the ratio of capital to labor and research and development expenditure in the developing countries (under study) with poor production structures do not have expected positive effect on increasing the high-tech exports. If the necessary institutional infrastructures are not provided, the development of the physical capital and even the research and development expenditures encloses the country's natural resource-based and traditional industries. Other explanatory variables including the land area per capita, the real effective exchange rate, the population, the ratio of FDI to GDP and inflation due to the low inclusion probability do not affect the exports.
    Conclusion
    The traditional trade theories lack essential potentials to explain the tech-intensive exports in the developing countries. However, the institutions, the efficient human capital, higher GDP, the openness and the easier access to the foreign knowledge and investment can explain the behavior of the tech-intensive exports in the developing countries, confirming the main hypothesis of this article. Of course good governance maybe not perfect proxy of Institutional quality that should be addressed in future researches.
    Keywords: high technology export, Bayesian model averaging, WALS averaging, Developing countries
  • Kamran Mahmoudpour *, Mohammadnabi Shahikitash, Mohamadhasan Fotros Pages 49-73
    The current paper seeks to examine the structure of Iranian`s organized monetary market based on multi-function product and multi-level effects pattern which in this regard, the economies of scope has been assessed by estimating multi-product translog cost function of Iranian`s organized monetary market. In this paper 18 active banks during 2008–15 were studied which they all formed the money market situation in Iran. To assess competition in banking industry, at first, by using the results of multi-level mixed effects model to assess the model of Iranian`s organized monetary market, Penrose andRoss model calculated. For assessing the reason of marketing power when there are multi-product offers. Changes in H statistics of Penrose and Ross due to existence of economies of scope in multi-products banking, estimated and the change in statistic H suggests the exclusive power in organized monetary market of country. The findings show that with increasing of diversity of offered products by organized monetary market, the value of Penrose and Ross statistic H is lessened increasing of exclusive power as a result. Therefore, economic measure and scale in banking industry will result in marketing power and also banks with diversity in offering of products have a more exclusive power. To this regard, high degree of concentration in banking industry has highlighted two questions recently: first, regarding bank’s large scales, are whether those scale increase or not? If so is this advantage or obstacle for potential new banks to enter the industry? And second, whether those model banking scope has lead to increase banking power? Theory suggests that banking competition can be inferred directly from the markup of prices over marginal cost (Lerner, 1934). In prsctice, this measure is often hard or even impossible to implement due to a lock of detailed information on the costs and prices of bank products. The literature has proposed various indirect measurement techniques to assess the competitive climate in the banking sector.
    The current paper derives a theoretical model that explicitly analyzes the behavior and conduct of a representative multi-product bank that enjoys economies of scope in supplying classic and other banking products. Frist step begin by extending Panzar and Rosse’s (1987) original model to the case of a multi-product bank with economies of scope, computing the multi-product Panzar-Rosse H-Statistic. Next, the current study shows how economies of scope in multi-product banks affect H-Statistics in the market for classical banking products. More specifically, we show that the greater the economies of scope for a multi-product bank, the lower the Panzar-Rosse H-Statistic.
    In addition, our estimates show that banks with any of the product profiles studied have greater market power than banks that offer only classic products. These results indicate that both financial and nonfinancial banking products can increase a bank’s market power. Future research could extend this project by investigating the causal effects of the positive relationship between market power and a bank’s decision to supply classic and other banking products. To summarize, our empirical models show that empirical studies that do not consider the economies of scope underestimate multi-product firms’competation in the banking markets. Moreover, an individual banking-level measure of economies of scope is created and included in Panzar and Rosse’s (1987) test. The initial view of product diversity is supported by banks and their customers, So banks by gaining customer satisfaction, they also gain market power through a variety of products though move to the exclusive atmosphere can have the consequences of reducing social welfare.
    Keywords: Iranian's organized monetary market, economies of diversity, multi-level mixed effects model, market structure, Penrose, ross generalized model
  • Alireza Erfani *, Azadeh Talebbeydokhti Pages 75-94
    Policy rate and macroprudential tool are two of the main policy tools that affect the financial situation of the economy. While the policy rate is well-known monetary policy tool among most central bankers to achieve price stability and output stability in the economy, macroprudential measures have resurged recently and are becoming an increasingly active instrument. The main advantage of having two sets of policy tools is that they can target different policy objectives. In empirical studies, the effectiveness of a macroprudential measure is measured through its effect on procyclicality of financial risks (the correlation between GDP growth and financial risk variables such as credit growth and financial leverage), or through the level of financial risk (for example, the level of Credit growth and financial leverage). In this study, following Bailliu and et.al (2015), we define macroprudential policy as a policy that uses primarily prudential tools to limit systemic financial risk. For this purpose, credit growth is used as a substitute for financial instability. Also, we focus on the leverage index as a precautionary tool to deal with excessive credit growth. Although there seems to be a broad consensus on the central role of macroprudential policy measures in containing financial instability build-ups (IMF, 2014a), there are different views on the role of monetary policy in this matter. Smets, (2014) distinguishes between the three main views. The first view is that monetary policy should only focus on traditional objectives, such as inflation and real economic activity. In the second view, financial stability is at least as important as traditional objectives, and that decisions regarding the setting of policy interest rates should equally consider financial stability concerns. The third view, which is increasingly gaining consensus in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, acknowledges that in some circumstances, monetary policy may deviate from its traditional objective in order to support financial stability, if costs from doing so are smaller than benefits (IMF, 2015b). Hence, in this study, in addition to examining the role of monetary policy in achieving the common goals of the policy of stability of inflation and the stability of output in the economy, we examined its role as well as the role of financial leverage in improving the financial stability of Iran through controlling the growth rate of bank credits. For this purpose, first, using the Markov switching model, we estimated the policy rule in which the rate of base money growth is adjusted in response to the inflation gap and the output gap. The results showed that the central bank has been more seeking to achieve the goal of economic stability through the application of expansionary monetary policy; so that achieving this goal has a higher stability and durability than the goal of inflation stability during the studied period in the Iranian economy. Then, the policy rule is estimated in which the growth rate of credit to private sector (as a measure of financial stability) is adjusted in response to monetary policy shocks and financial leverage (the ratio of private sector debt to output). The results showed that the financial leverage index has not been used as a precautionary measure for tackling systematic risk and achieving financial stability during the years under study; In spite of worsening the status of entrepreneur's balance sheets by increasing private sector debt, credits growth to various sectors of the economy have also increased. Nevertheless, the results are indicated the proper performance of monetary policy in improving financial stability by controlling the growth rate of credits. So that, the monetary policymaker, through controlling excessive credit expansion, reduces the risk and probability of a default on loans by entrepreneurs and thus has led to improved financial stability of the economy.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy, Leverage, Financial Stability, Iran Economy
  • Jafar Ebadi, Naser Elahi, Mohammad Ali Amirzargar, Jalal Molabeigi * Pages 95-123
    One of the most critical market duties is to ensure coordination between the supplier and demander. When the market fails to fulfill this duty efficiently, it either does not form or fail and disintegrate. This is because the number of market participants is either too large or too small, and/or the market experiences conditions where the participants scarcely give voice to their priorities with ease and confidence. Economists contend that the fundamental challenge in market design is that we sufficiently understand complex markets and develop our abilities to the point where we can reconstruct or redesign them upon their failure and/or use market-like mechanisms. When the process of price adjustment is slowly at work, economic factors tend to select what they want in the price they observe. Still, many markets are by far beyond this simple economic rule. In such markets, we may not readily obtain what we need even when we can afford it. In other words, while to want to and to be able to (to want a product and to be able to pay for it) generate demand in common markets, these two factors do not necessarily present us as customers in the complex markets since commodities are offered with variable qualities so that it is impossible to form a market for them. Some markets are so complex that people cannot select what they need despite their willingness and ability to pay for it. That is, price mechanism and automatic adjustment do not provide the market with balance although this does not imply the impossibility of market formation. . Market design theory and matching theory seek to provide a stage where suppliers and demanders can meet without using the traditional market mechanism (price mechanism). In this theory, price mechanism does not offer solution to the problem of resource allocation. Rather, allocation is based on suppliers and demanders’ conditions. Based on the proposed algorithm, ranked preferences replace and act as price system. One of the most important applications of market design in the past decade has been to the kidney and body parts market. for the purposes of market design, one should employ an algorithm that can overcome the causes of market failure such as returns to scale, externalities, uncertainty, thinness, congestion and insecurity to demonstrate preferences.These factors affect both market failure and lack of market formation.
    The present study aimed to address the problem of kidney market and provide a solution to the problem. Dispersed market participants, limited number of suppliers and demanders, and poor supplier-demander relationshipmay lead to market (kidney exchange mechanism) failure or impede market formation.
    In order to resolve this deficiencies we should design a mechanism for overcoming the market failures in order to reach to an efficient and stable allocation. Kidney market is a true example of this type of markets. Therefore, it is suggested to create a clearing room in which the information of kidney donors and patients be recorded and after processing this information and determine patient preferences, the matching algorithm could match the compatible couples(donors and patients)þ and kidney exchange can be facilitated. The present study was carried out in Hamedan Province in 2016 using matching theory which is a subset of market design and mechanism design. To this end, the information for fortyþ people , twenty of them patients and twenty others Kidney donator were recorded in the clearing room. Then, after blood and tissues tests and determining patient preferences and forming matching algorithms, seventeen of twenty patients could receive kidney transplant. However, without using this mechanisms only nine patient could have received transplan, Also using this mechanism will result at least 163817796 Rials per patient.
    Keywords: mechanism design, market desin, matching theory, kidney exchange, Assignment? Algorithm
  • Abolfazl Shahabadi *, Raziyeh Davarikish Pages 125-151
    One of the important factors in achieving sustainable and sustainable economic growth and development is owning a robust and efficient banking system. banking system with attracting deposits and mobilization of financial resources to investing in productive affairs provides a framework for increasing of economic growth and development. Mobilization and allocating of financial resources to economic activities does through the financial market and notice of the financial market of Iran is bank-based. Therefore, the role of the Iran's banking system in investment, employment, growth and economic development because of and mobilization of resources and finance for the implementation of projects, financing of working capital of manufacturing units, providing mortgages and meeting the basic needs of the society and also avoids deepening the decline in economic activity is so important that requires expansion of the bank's performance.
    Introducing variables and presenting the model The present study with using of econometric techniques, 3SLS system methods and simultaneous equations examines the effect of effective factors on the performance of the banking sector in Iran during the period of 1393-1363, which with following of the studies conducted by Sufian and Zulkhibri (2013), Tchaidze and Tvalodze (2011), Shahabadi and Sammy (2011), Low et al (2010) and Arestis et al (2002), Bank Performance (FD) is the function of Economic Freedom Index (EF), liquidity volume (MS), gross domestic product (GDP) and real interest rate (RIR), and equation (1) is estimated.
    LFDt = β0β1*LEFtβ2*LGDPtβ3*LRIRtβ4*LMStεt (1)
    Also expecting:σLFDt⁄σLEFt>0, σLFDt⁄σLGDPt>0, σLFDt⁄σLRIRt>0, σLFDt⁄σLMSt>0
    The Determinants of the Factors Affecting Banking Performance:Equation of Economic Freedom (EF): With following of the studies conducted by Shafiq and Zaman (2014), King et al (2010), Lundstrfm (2005) and Banaian and Luksetich (2001), the economic freedom index is the function of ratio of oil and gas exports to gross domestic product (OE), human capital (HC), inflation (IR) and civil liberties (CI), and equation (2) is estimated: LEFt = β0β1*LOEtβ2*LCItβ3*LIRtβ4*LHCtεt (2)
    Also expecting:σLEFt⁄σLOEt>0, σLEFt⁄σLCIt>0, σLEFt⁄σLIRt>0, σLEFt⁄σLHCt>0
    Volume of Liquidity Equation (MS): With following of studies conducted by Bittencourt (2011) and Mashayekh et al (2013) the liquidity volume is the function of the ratio of currency in circulation to the sum of currency and non-currency deposits (C/D), the ratio of legal deposits of banks in the central bank to the sum of currency and non-currency deposits (LD/D), the bank's debts to the central bank (BD) public sector debt to the central bank (PSD) and the equation (3) is estimated.
    LMSt = β0β1*L(C/D)tβ2*L(LD/D)tβ3*LBDtβ4*LPSDtεt (3)
    Also expecting: σLMSt⁄σL(C/D)t>0, σLMSt⁄σL(LD/D)t>0, σLMSt⁄σLBDt>0, σLMSt⁄σLPSDt>0
    Equation gross domestic product (GDP): With following of the studies conducted by Burggraeve et al (2015), Ahmad and French (2011), Takii and Tanaka (2009), Falk (2007), Shaw (1973), Goldsmith (1969) and Jung (1986), gross domestic product is the function of accumulation physical capital (PCA), accumulation research and development expenditures (R & DA), Human capital (HC) and employment (EM), and equation (4) is estimated.
    LGDPt = β0β1*LPCAtβ2*LR & DAtβ3*LHCtβ4*LEMtεt (4)
    Also expecting: σLGDPt⁄σLPCt>0, σLGDPt⁄σLLR & Dt>0, σLGDPt⁄σLHCt>0, σLGDPt⁄σLEMt>0
    Conclusion and Policy Recommendations : According the econometric topics, for avoid the formation of false regression should stationary of variables are examined firstly. The results of stationary of variables with using of the fuller Dicky test show that all variables are stationary in first differences. When examining the explanatory power of the equations in the simulation model, R2CN has the same role of R2 in other estimation methods. Therefore, the higher the value of this statistic is closer to the number one, the explanatory power of the estimated equation is greater and the results are more attributable (this index is defined by the MSE (Mean-Square-Error) criterion). Also, the RMSE value, which is the square of the MSE, is closer to zero, results are more reliable. According to the results of estimated equation of bank performance can be find out, the explanatory power of the estimated equation is high, and results are attributable. Results of estimation of the banking sector performance model during the period 1963-2014 shows that, variables of economic freedom, GDP and liquidity volume have a positive and significant relationship with banking performance, and the effect of the variable of the real interest rate is also meaningless. Also the variables ratio of oil and gas exports to gross domestic product, inflation rate and civil liberties have a negative and significant impact and human capital does not have a significant effect on economic freedom. Variables of physical capital, accumulation research and development expenditures and employment have a positive and significant impact, and human capital does not have a significant effect on gross domestic product. Also the liquidity volume with increasing, assets and debt central bank is increasing and decreasing, respectively. Therefore, with considering of the positive and significant impact of the economic freedom index, the liquidity volume and GDP on banking performance can find out that these variables provide a framework for mobilization of financial resources, strengthening the sense of deposit in banks and directing small depositor's funds towards production activities, because by improving economic freedom and coordination of growth rate of liquidity with growth rate of gross domestic product provide a framework for advancing the functioning of the banking sector.
    Keywords: Banking Performance, Liquidity Volume, Simultaneous Equations, Iran
  • Parviz Mohammadzadeh, Hassan Abdi *, Davoud Behbodi, Mohammadbagher Beheshti Pages 153-175
    Today is based on science and knowledge, as humanity has entered the age of information and communication after leaving the agrarian and industrial societies; it witnessed three: digital, internet and entrepreneurship revolutions. Today is the era of entrepreneurship and entrepreneurs are leading the revolutionary that are based on knowledge, information and awareness. Evidence from developed countries suggests that the entrepreneurship has been causes of economic growth and development, and the only economic solution to treat stagnancy and inflation in Iran is to increase the supply and production which, in turn, depend on knowledge, creativity, innovation and entrepreneurship, investment in which is essential to achieve sustained development. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of demographic and environmental factors on the success of entrepreneurs using logit and probit models in Shahid Salimi industrial town in Tabriz in 2016. The data were collected form 121 economic activist who were randomly selected form the population. We use the Cochran formula to estimate the sample size and use the panel of experts to determine the validity of the questionnaire and use Cronbach's alpha coefficient to estimate reliability. The Cronbach's alpha coefficients for the main variables of the research are between 0.61 and 0.86. That it indicates the appropriate reliability of the research tool. The data were then analyzed using probit and logit models. The empirical results indicated that the level of education has a negative and significant impact on the success of entrepreneurs. In addition, years of experience, physical capital, financial and non-financial support of the government, attitudes, self-efficacy and social value have positive and significant effects on the success of entrepreneurs. According to the obtained results, the LR statistic in both models (logit and probit method) indicates the significance of the whole regression at 1% level. the calculations by the logit method show that by increasing one unit of years of experience, physical capital, financial and non-financial support of the government, attitudes, self-efficacy and social value, assuming the stability of other conditions, The probability of entrepreneurship in the mean increases respectively, 0.12, 0.35, 0.21, 5.77, 1.40 and 0.63 unit. Also, by increasing one unit of education level, assuming the stability of other conditions, the probability of entrepreneurship in the mean decreases, 0.27 unit. So that the calculations by the probit method show that by increasing one unit of years of experience, physical capital, financial and non-financial support of the government, attitudes, self-efficacy and social value, assuming the stability of other conditions, The probability of entrepreneurship in the mean increases respectively, 0.11, 0.33, 0.21, 5.24, 1.31 and 0.56 unit. Also, by increasing one unit of education level, assuming the stability of other conditions, the probability of entrepreneurship in the mean decreases, 0.25 unit. Therefore, considering the importance of entrepreneurship in the country, the researcher recommends the promotion of variables increasing the success of entrepreneurs as well as a fundamental reconsideration of the quality of education in Iran. In other words, the empirical findings of the research indicate that to succeed the entrepreneurs and through which more economic growth and development, attention to invest and the transformation of national assets and wealth into physical capital and non-financial support of the government that create entrepreneurial businesses and access to the banking facility are essential. Due to the fluctuations in the price of oil and the ending of these resources, it is recommended, that reduces dependence on oil and gas revenues and move towards the growth of export of innovative products. Thus, it will be obtained through the attention and support of investment in human beings and the creation of efficient human capital through education and accumulation of experience. Also, by educating and translating the culture of belief and self-efficacy, and providing an environment in which social values and attitudes toward entrepreneurship good achievements can be achieved.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, level of experience, physical capital, financial support, non-financial support of government, Logit, Probit Models
  • Bagher Darvishi *, Mahin Ahmadikhah Pages 177-198
    The main objective of this study is to measure Pro-poor Growthfor wage and salaries earners (in public, cooperative and private sectors) and self-employed jobs (agricultural and non-agricultural).The studies have mostly measured the Pro-poor Growthin rural and urban areas, but due to the different impacts of inflation on wage and salaries earners and self-employed jobs, the consequences of economic growth for these two groups of employees will be different.
    To investigate this issue, Kakwani.et al. (2004) model and spending-income data of urban and rural households during five development programs (1989-2014) were used. The data of income for mentioned groups of jobs deflated by using the related price index. Considering that there are the jobs having wages and salaries and freelance jobs in both urban and rural areas, it is used from two urban and rural poverty lines that the related poverty line is calculated according to minimum basic requirements (Urshanski’s method).
    The findings show that in the first plan of development, the growth for wages and salaries earners has reduced poverty, but it has increased poverty in the freelance jobs. During the second plan of development, the growth in the jobs having wages and salaries and non-agricultural freelance jobs has reduced poverty, but it makes poverty (it is harmful) in the agricultural freelance jobs. In the third plan of development, the growth in the freelance jobs and jobs having wages and salaries (excluding the public sector) has reduced poverty and also in the fourth and fifth plans of development, the economic recession in all occupational groups(except cooperative sector of rural areas in the fourth plan) has worsen the situation of the poor. One of the questions raised in the paper is how the growth affects poverty in two occupational groups including jobs having wages and salaries and freelance jobs, the results show that growth in the different plans has various impacts on the reduction of poverty of jobs, such that in the first two plans of development, growth merely was in favor of jobs having wages and salaries and it is frequently seen in the public sector and it mostly makes poverty rather than it can eradicate poverty, but in the third plan(in contrast to the previous two plans) , growth in the public sector made poverty. The stagnation during fourth and fifth development programs was causing poverty for all occupational groups (except for cooperation paid people within rural areas during fourth development program).Therefore, although economic growth may not cause poverty reduction for all occupational groups, but stagnation will be certainly harmful for them in terms of poverty.
    Based on the result, any increase of poverty in Iran is sometimes the result of growth and sometimes is the result of inequality. Therefore, it's suggested to continually follow distributional and development growth policies together. That's because exclusive attention toward redistribution-focused policies (like the fourth and fifth development programs) or growth-focused policies (like the first and the second development programs) will cause poverty to be attenuates in most of occupational categories. On the other hand, the results show that economic growth will have different impacts on different groups of employees. Consequently, in the evaluation of the performance of policies of social development and plans of development, it should be separately considered their impacts on different occupational groups. Accordingly, mere focus on the general indicators of growth, poverty and inequality and negligence to the situation of different employees in the developmental policies will mislead policymakers.
    Keywords: Economic growth, inequality, poverty, pro-poor growth, development programs
  • Ali Khajeh Mohammad Lou*, Hasan Khodavaisi Pages 199-221
    The interest rate variable is one of the most important tools for economic policy making, stability and economic growth. Not taking advantage of the changes in this rate will not only question the dynamics of the banking system, but, consequently, the entire system of economics. Because there are many factors involved in changing the interest rate, unlike other studies conducted in Iran, in addition to the use of new methods of Econometrics, only relations among exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate as the main objective of this paper in the framework of economic theories have been reviewed without entering other variables like investment, economic growth using the method of vector autoregressive (VAR) during 1993-1999 period. In this study, we used the above-mentioned econometric method to answer the question whether there is a relationship among interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate in Iranian economy based on the international theory and Fisher's effect or not? And, with regard to the conditions of the Iranian economy, the severity of the inflation and exchange rate cuts, and in what direction they affect interest rates. For this purpose, firstly, in this research, the theoretical foundations on the relationship among the rate of inflation, exchange rate and interest rates from different economist's point of view have been discussed and then studies on the subject of research have been studied. In the following, after introducing the model used in this paper, we analyze the findings and present the conclusions based on the hypothesis test. An examination of the internal studies in this field suggests a lack of consensus on the magnitude of this relationship on the one hand and the contradiction observed in the results of studies by researchers. On the other hand, in most of the internal studies, traditional one-step econometric methods are used and in some researches simultaneous equations are used. Such research has been criticized by Lucas. Lucas asserts that, predictions based on these patterns cannot be true, because they are based only on past information. Therefore, the present study uses a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) to examine the relationship among exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate. Before estimating the Autoregressive model, first of all the stationarity of all variables in the research have been checked and then the number of optimum lags was determined based on valid criteria. The results of the Phillips-Peron (PP) test showed that all variables in the model are not stationary and their degree of integration is one I (1). Also, using the Schwarz-Bayesian method of optimal lags selection, the optimal lag is one Because they have the smallest value compare to other lags. In order to estimate short-term and long-run dynamics among variables, Johansen-Juselius co-integration method and vector error correction model have been used. The results of the Johansen test and the estimation of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) showed that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the model variables, so that the elasticity of interest rate with respect to the exchange rate is not significant and the increase (decrease) in the exchange rate has no effect on the interest rate. Also, the elasticity of interest rate with respect to the inflation rate is minus 1.16; this means that the increase in inflation has a negative and significant effect on interest rates. Short-run relationships showed that in the short run, the elasticity of interest rates with respect to the exchange rate was positive and significant, but the elasticity of the interest rate was not meaningful and inflation rate has no effect on the interest rate. In other words, the international theory of Fisher is rejected in Iran's economy. The coefficient of the error term, including the residual of the co-integration pattern, is minus 0.078, in the sense that 7.8% of the adverse shocks incurred in each period by the system itself in the subsequent period are adjusted and eliminated. At the end, the results of diagnostic tests of the estimated model indicate normality, homogeneity of the variance and no autocorrelation among residuals of the model and also no structural breaks.
    Keywords: Fisher theory, exchange rate, Inflation, vector error correction model(vecm), Co-integration test
  • Monireh Rafat* Pages 223-247
    Over the past few decades, globalization has affected most economic indicators. In this regard, one of the most important questions raised by economists is that how much does globalization affect government spending?
    A large body of literature deals with the economic determinants of government size, have put forward two hypotheses:1. Country size emerges from a trade-off between the economies of scale in supplying public goods in large countries, and the costs of cultural and ethnic heterogeneity, which may be increasing in the size of countries. This result hinges critically on the assumption that, when you can share the costs of partially or completely non-rival public goods over larger populations, per capita expenditure on these goods is lower.
    2. To the extent that market size influences productivity, large countries can afford to be closed, while small countries face stronger incentives to remain open; conversely, as trade liberalizes, regional and cultural minorities can afford to split because political borders do not identify the size of the market; therefore, smaller countries can enjoy the benefits of cultural homogeneity without suffering the costs associated with small markets. This hypothesis points toward a negative relationship between country size and the degree of globalization.
    In this paper, we examined the composition of public expenditures rather than the overall level. Economic theory suggests different kinds of government expenditures to react differently to globalization. According to the disciplining hypothesis, globalization restrains governments by inducing increased budgetary pressure. As a consequence, governments shift their expenditures in favor of transfers and subsidies and away from capital expenditures. The efficiency/disciplining effect is thus expected to reduce the share of capital expenditures.
    To measure globalization, we employ various proxies, the first is openness to trade measured as the sum of imports and exports as a share of GDP. The second indicator of globalization is the sum of the absolute values of inflows and outflows of foreign direct investment (as a share of GDP), and the third refers to KOF Index of Globalization. The index captures the three main dimensions of globalization – economic integration, political integration and social integration. It is based on a large number of variables that relate to the three main dimensions of globalization. These variables have been combined to form six groups: actual flows of trade and investment, restrictions of international transactions, variables measuring the degree of political integration, variables quantifying the extent of personal contacts with people living in foreign countries, variables measuring trans-border flows of information, and a proxy for cultural integration. These six groups are combined to form the three sub-indices and one overall index of globalization with the help of an objective statistical method. We employ the overall index and the three sub-indices.
    The purpose of this paper is to test the effectiveness and compensatory hypothesis in examining the effect of globalization on the productive and unproductive expenditures of the Iranian government over the period of 1368-94. Government expenditures are initially divided into capital and consumed expenditures and then it divided into productive and unproductive components, then relationship between the globalization indicators and these components expenditures is analyzed in the form of an econometric model using instrumental variables and the two-stage least squares method (2SLS).
    The results indicate that the KOF index and its economic and social indicators and trade openness (with a coefficient of .27) have a positive and significant effect on government consumption expenditures. Also, financial openness (with a coefficient of -4.44) has a negative effect on the government's capital expenditures, but trade openness (with a coefficient of 23.2) has a positive effect on it. In this way, according to the efficiency hypothesis, globalization has led to a reduction in government's capital expenditures.
    Based on trade and financial openness effect on productive and unproductive government expenditures, this study finds a consistent result that favors the efficiency hypothesis over the compensatory hypothesis.
    Keywords: Trade Openness, Financial Openness, Productive, unproductive government expenditures, Globalization, KOF Index