فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 7 (پاییز 1392)

Despite of paying special attention of traditional trade theories to productivity، but this important subject has been less taken into account by new trade models. In this framework، present paper has examined the impact of total factor productivity on intra industry trade. For this، based on the very latest data، trade and industry specific data of 16305 firms with above 10 workers have been measured، collected and processed at the 4 aggregation level of ISIC classification during 2003-2007. The results obtained from the panel data estimations show that total factor productivity has a positive and significant effect on intra industry trade of Iran’s manufacturing industries. According to the other results، product differentiation and scale economies have positive and significant effects on the intra industry trade. In the framework of the obtained results، we suggest that it should be paid attention on total factor productivity and production development of the industrial sector as well as the factors affecting on intra industry trade.

The main purpose of this studyisinvestigated the impact of fluctuations in oil revenues and effects of tax revenues in the budget deficit simultaneously. Also in this study we has been used a multilayer neural network (MLP) as a powerful tool for the simulation of nonlinear andfluctuations behavior to simulate the impact of changes in oil and tax revenues on the budget deficit. Results showthat 13 to 26 percent increase in tax rate can improve budget deficit، in a manner that 26 percent increase in the tax rate will have the greatest improvement in the budget deficit. The budget deficit gets worse for upper than 26 percent increase in tax rate. For example 31 percent increase in tax rate can increase budget deficit in 30 percent. In other scenario we investigate that30 percent decline in oil revenues must be at best 60 percent tax rate increase to 80 percent the size of the budget deficit wills improves. This reflects theheavydependenceof budget deficit on oil revenues and the low effects of tax revenues on budget. Also in the other scenario the results show that if the oil revenue decreases 30 percent، even with a 10 percent increase in tax rate، the government deficit will increase into twice. This is due to reduced government revenues resulting from declines in oil revenues due to decreased investment and lower total production. In addition to thesefindings، the results ofthis study indicate that، the improvement in the budget deficit by growth rate increases until a threshold point. After this threshold point، the rate of improvement in the budget deficit is reduced by growth rate increases. The reason for thiscan be government expenses behavior، government spending increases withincreased in income. Assuming no changes in tax rates and oil revenues،the economic growth rate of 7. 8percent (threshold point)، budget deficit، 70 percent will improve.

This paper presents a new model for forecasting crude oil prices. The model is a combination of wavelet transformation with the ARMAX، Harmonic regression Holt-Winters and models. The study applies this model to forecasting the time series data of crude oil. The time series data of oil prices are decomposed by applying wavelet transformation to the three series; trend series، seasonality series and high frequency (fluctuations) series. The study then proceeds to apply the related models to forecast each series and finally to achieve the final forecasting، combines the forecasted time series with each other. By comparing the resulted forecasts from the proposed model with ARMA model، it is indicated that the using model in this thesis has better performance and accuracy.

Banking and financial development are one of the main keys to achieving long-term growth through transparency and dissemination of information، investment opportunities and business identify، reducing transaction costs، increased market efficiency، diversification، coverage and reduce risk، Equip savings، micro and wandered investment attraction and facilitating the resource allocation. In recent decades the banking and financial markets developments، those follows in developing countries especially strongly in emerging economies are create relationships between this two sectors of economy and enhance of the manufacturing sector، as a real sector of the economy. According to this، In this paper، four distinct models to assess the impact of individual and simultaneous development bank (money market) and indicators of financial development (stock market) on the growth of GDP (the real economy) will be discussed. In order to achieve this goal we use dynamic panel data with generalized method of moment’s model and Arellano-Bover/ Blundel- Bond Dynamic Panel Data Two Step Estimator during 2010 - 1995 for 32 countries، including developing and emerging countries and Iran. In the simultaneous and separate models، the result indicates a positive and significant impact of monetary، fiscal and macro-economic variables on GDP growth. Control of monetary، fiscal and macroeconomic indicators separately in four different models did not effect on significant or sign of other variables. There is sign stability in all four models، the Wald test، Sargan test and first and second order autocorrelation of show that econometric model is specified correctly.

The main aim of this paper is investigating the effect of property rights security on private investment in Iran during 1971-2011. For doing so, the long-run relationship between property rights security, and other factors on private investment, considering the structural breaks, has been studied. The result of Pesaran et al. (2001) cointegration bound test shows that, there is a long-run relationship between property rights security and private investment. The ARDL test result shows that property rights security has a significant effect on private investment in Iran in long-run, and short-run for this effect is significantly weakend. The results also show that, the impact of property rights security on private investment is sensitive to the type of property rights security index. So, the government can pay more attention to their traditional duties, and also change in the social legal system according to the change in the production system, helping to protect property rights and increase private investment.

Achieving high economic growth rate which requires the utilization of proper economic policies and the more knowledge about factors affecting the economic growth is one of the most important goals in any economic system. Oil، as one the major source of energy and an important factor in production، leads countries to grow and develop. Since the effect of oil shock on the economic growth is linear، the question formulated in this research is the effect of the oil movement on Iran economic growth based on the framework of the searching algorithm. In order to answer this question، the non-linear behavior of Iran economic growth model was estimated by making use of two searching gravitational algorithms and optimizing the maximum of the particles between 1974-2011. Findings show that positive shock of oil، investment to production ratio، government expenses to gross national product ratio، the active population، and the degree of openness of the economic affirmatively influence Iran’s economic while the currency rate and the inflation rate negatively affect it. Therefore، generally، the effect of oil shocks has positive impacts on the growth of Iran economy. This can be highly influential in making important economic decision

One of the important factors for improving economic development in Iran is attention on non-oil base export، especially wood and paper industry. The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the impact of the tariff rates on wood industry and paper industry exports during 1977-2011. To do so، vector auto regressive (VAR) model has been used and with Johansson approach، supply of export will be estimated. After this we combined the short-term and long-term relationship by using of error correlation model (ECM). The results show that appreciating tariff rate of import has negative effect on supply of wood and paper industries، so appropriate decreasing the tariff rate have been advised to policy makers. In addition، real exchange rate has positive effect on supply of wood and paper industries. Error Correction coefficients for wood and paper industry calculated، 0. 19 and 0. 41 respectively.

There are extensive literatures on the impact of exchange rates on economic activity. The effect of exchange rate volatility on exports of high technology is more noticeable. In this context، investigate the effect of the real exchange rate volatility on different variables such as the export is important. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of real exchange rate volatility on exports of Iran’s high technology goods over the period of 1968-2010. To that end، the real exchange rate volatility index has been estimated incorporating with EGARCH (0، 1) model than we using cointegration of Saikkonen & Lutkepohl and FMOLS to investigate the impact of the real exchange rate volatility index، along with other variables of model exports of high technology goods have been evaluated. The main finding of this study show that the real exchange rate volatility variables and export prices have negative and significant effects on exports of high technology goods and variables GDP’s world، GDP’s Iran and trade of openness have positive and significant effects on exports of high technology goods. The empirical findings of this paper، thebeneficial implications for investors and Policymakers needs to recognize the exact effects of exchange rate volatility on exports of high technology goods are provided.

The present research tries to examine the effect of financial development on supply of non-oil export using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model in Iran during the period (1357-88). In the model، relative price of non-oil export، GDP without oil، and financial deepening index are introduced as the determinants of supply of non-oil export. The results show all of the autonomous variables have expected signs and are significant in short run. The mentioned variables also have the expected sign and except financial deepening index are significant in long run. The results indicate that although financial development affects on supply of non-oil export in the short run. But it does not have any effect on supply of non-oil export in the long run. It emphasizes that financial and capital sector in trade especially in export is passive. Therefore، for the efficiency of this sector، it is necessary to modify the rules، regulations، and supervision. Especially، for our country which is accessing WTO.