فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 9 (بهار 1393)

This paper studies monetary policy in Iran based on a modified version of Taylor rule in which monetary base growth rate is determined according to output and inflation deviations from their target values. One of the characteristics of Iranian economy is that there is no explicit inflation target for monetary policy. Therefore، we assume that the inflation target is known for monetary authorities but not for other agents. Considering this، we first estimate the implicit inflation target using Kalman filtering approach، then using the estimated inflation target، we estimate a markov switching version of our prposed monetary policy reaction function in which it is assumed that the parameters switch in two regims of recession and expansion. The results show that except the first 3 years of the sample period، monetary policy has correctly recognized the state of economy but this recognision has been with delay.

The main goal of this paper is to estimate the elasticity of substitution between energy and other factors of production by using a multi-stage CES production function. In order to achieve this goal، we design a nested CES production function with four inputs، labor، capital، energy and investment in research and development for Iranian economy. This nonlinear production function is estimated by continuous genetic algorithms method. This method is relatively more efficient than traditional econometrics approach. In the first stage، three different functions are estimated and the best one is selected. In the next stage، we have calculated the elasticity of substitution between energy and other inputs of production. Our choice of nonlinear production function، the explanatory variables، and also the estimation method make this research different from those already done for Iran. The results indicate that one percent increase in labor force reduces energy consumption by 0. 56 percent. We also find that one percent increase in physical capital decreases energy use by 0. 59 percent، and similarly one percent increase in investment in R&D (Research and Development) might reduce energy consumption by 0. 46 percent. Furthermore، we calculate marginal products of different input for various years and observe that the marginal product of labor has increased after Iran-Iraq imposed war. Moreover the marginal product of energy has increased since 1995. This might be a result of energy saving policy implemented in Iran after this year.

This paper focuses on the relationship between structural variables and market behavior for a sample of 141 four-digit industries during 1374-1388 in Iran. For this purpose، the system of equations consists of the Dynamics of Competition، Researching intensity and Advertising intensity applied. The Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) method in the Pane Data is used to estimate the parameters of the models. Results show that Researching intensity and Advertising intensity have a positive and significant effect on the Dynamics of Competition in the Iranian industries and the effect of Advertising intensity is more than Researching intensity. Moreover the interrupted value of the dynamics of competition is interrupted for a significant positive effect on the dynamics of competition in the industries in Iran that represent the dynamic effects of this variable in Iran. According to industry research and Trying to marketing and selling industrial products is helping to enhancing competitiveness in the Iranian industries.

Globalization process for each country can be associated with benefits and harms. In the process of economic globalization، economic activity and changes in the definition is not confined to the borders of a country. Also، the role of financial development in the economic growth and private investment issues is undeniable; because economic growth depends on private investment and private investment depends on the development of the financial market. This paper intends to use the system of equations and GMM estimator examines the macroeconomic impact of financial development on Globalization process during the period 1965-2007. Also، in this paper، the variable domestic credit allocated to the private sector is used as an indicator of financial development. According to the result، increase of financial development can through expanding credit to private sector lead to increase private investment and economic growth; also، economic growth can increase export and import and lead to accelerate the globalization process. Therefore it can be said that financial development through growth channel will hasten the process of globalization.

Based on endogenous growth models, domestic research and development activities (R&D), foreign R&D spillover and human capital can cause technical progress and improving product′s quality, enhancing total factor productivity growth and finally lead to enhance competitiveness power of agriculture sector. Almost the innovation and invention costs in agriculture sector are high, but since its nature is from knowledge, it spreads out with low costs. Therefore foreign research and development spillovers cause to transfer of technology and enhancing total factor productivity in different channels, which some of main channels are import of inputs, intermediate and capital goods. Thus, in respect of making food security and increasing competitiveness power in agriculture sector, the aim of this study is to determine the role of domestic and foreign research and development activities (via technologies that appeared in imported inputs, intermediate and capital goods) and human capital on total factor productivity growth in agriculture sector during 1968-2010. The results show that domestic research and development stocks, human capital and foreign research and development (G7 commercial partnerships) have significant and positive effect on total factors productivity in Iran''s agriculture sector. Because more educating of employees along expanding domestic research and development activities, will make a better field for attracting research and development spillovers of commercial partnerships and enhancing total factor productivity in agriculture sector.

In order to reduce the greenhouse gases emissions، the recognition of influencing factors of emission of such gases is required. One of the most important greenhouse gases is Carbon Dioxide. The industry sector، by having about 20 percent، plays a significant role in emission of Carbon Dioxide. This study investigates the major factors of Carbon Dioxide emissions in Iranian industry subsectors during 2000-2007. For that purpose، using LMDI method in additive form، the Carbon Dioxide emissions of the Iranian two digit ISIC manufacturing industries decomposed to activity، structure، energy intensity، energy mix and emission factors. The results indicate that the activity effect is the major factor of increasing Carbon Dioxide and in contrast، the effect of energy intensity has a significant impact on reducing Carbon Dioxide emissions. The structure effect has not significant influence on the reduction of Carbon Dioxide emissions. Therefore، to prevent the increasing of pollution emissions of industries، there should be incentive policies to increase energy efficiency and structural changes towards cleaner industries. Also، the increasing of the natural gas in fuels، and improvement of fuel quality should be attended in development programs.

Implementation of targeted subsidies in real prices was followed by the change in relative welfare، the costumers’ combined expenditures and long-term demand behavior، the composition and behavior of consumer spending، there will be long-term demand. The prices have been actualized by Performance of subsidies targeting leading to changes in relative welfare، the costumers’ combined expenditures and long-term demand behavior. Since changes in technology are possible in longtime، the positive effects of subsides targeting will be revealed gradually. In addition، enforcing this law has remarkable effects on economy in a short time. Therefore، to compensate the public welfare، government undertakes some costs during this period. So، understanding the costumers’ demand behavior in Iran and the price and income effects on this behavior along with comparing the costs for paying subsides by government and the costumers equivalent variations is of great importance for keeping the family welfare and economic factors. Accordingly this paper aimed to test the hypothesis of government payments and people’s equivalent variation from 1389 to 1394 via simulation the variables of the customers’ demand model using almost ideal demand system (in the forms of two groups of imported and produced and consumed goods each of which divided into two groups of durable and nondurable) based on inflation figures and different growth rates. The findings revealed that the amount government payments in inflation range from 20% to 70% of the nondurable goods will be less than the people equivalent variations; namely، government payments have not been equal to the costumers'' welfare reduction.

Water plays a key role in the development of agriculture and production in agriculture it`s not possible without water. Also، due to the dry and semi-dry weather in Iran، it is crucial. On the other hand، optimal allocation and dynamic and stochastic factors in water allocation are also important. So In this paper، stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) is used for Latian dam water allocation to farmers of Varamin plain during 1370-1391. Objective function is producer welfare surplus that obtained from the area under the agricultural water demand function. To estimate the demand function a panel data approach is used. Given that the operation of the reservoir dam has always been a conflict between the decision makers، the purpose of this paper is determine the optimal allocation of water to farmers. Hence، it is assumed the the amount of water allocation to farmers it`s not optimal and it`s must be increased. According to results and farmer`s demand، optimal of water allocation is 170 MMC، that is 22 MMC more than long run average. Hence، the amount of water allocated to agriculture can be increased. Also، according to demand curve of water، agricultural water supply in drought conditions is necessary.

In recent years، population aging causes some concerns among policy makers. Meanwhile، the share of health expenditures (HE) in gross domestic product has been rising rapidly. Some economic theories consider less growth in productivity as main cause of wage increase and absorbing labor force to the health sector. Present study examines that if wage increases in excess of productivity growth can explain health expenditure growth. To this end، unbalanced growth model is used to determine main drivers of health expenditures growth. Beside the main purpose of the study، model setup allows us to concentrate on the role of per capita income and inflation in the health expenditure growth. Estimating a classical econometric model using data period of 1360-1389 shows that wage increases in excess of productivity growth has a significant effect on HE growth. In other words، existence of the unbalanced growth in Iran has not been rejected. By the way، growth in per capita income and price level in health sector have positive and significant effects on the HE growth. According to the unbalanced growth theory and projected population ageing، HE rises can be considered as a main threat to Iranian health system. It is clear that the best palliative against the future rise in health care expenditure is to increase productivity in the health sector.

In this paper، a Neoclassical Growth model was applied to explain the Iranian business cycles. We use the quarterly time series of consumption، investment and government expenditure to extract the business cycles. The fluctuations in investment and government expenditure are considerably larger than fluctuations in output. Then the model، augmented with technological and government expenditure shocks، is calibrated to Iranian economy. The simulated business cycles from the model are compared with the business cycles from time series. The results show the model can reproduce the business cycles in investment. However، the model does poorly in replicating the business cycles in consumption. Moreover، the model suggests that the main source of business cycles in Iran economy is technological shocks، and government expenditure may not cause significant fluctuations in real activities.

The world economy has witnesses several rounds of globalization within recent decades. Very recently، various global economic relationships can be found that have been deeply in progress. Financial relations among countries، for example، have gone up in a high rate of growth. This development which is financial globalization is a process that increases world communications through international financial and capital flows. Basically، this paper addressed the question: how has financial globalization affected the world economic growth? To this end، we use a new quantitative approach، so-called “program evaluation”، to explore and evaluate such effect. Accordingly، we have used the multiple matching to evaluate the responsiveness of the world economic growth to the developments of financial globalization (e. g. currency union). The empirical results for 2004، which has been selected randomly، show a significant and positive treatment effect of the currency union implementation on growth of the countries worldwide.

For a detailed understanding of the effect In developing countries،including Iran because of the public sector is the main economic activity، the government sector have a significant impact on the private sector. This study examines the impact of government spending on private sector investment. For a detaild underestanding of the effect، is separation government spending to consumption spending and capital spending and using a library and articles، data and statistics of the Central Bank during the period from 1341 to 1389، and using the ARDL method، have been estimates variables. The results showed that the negative effect of government spending on private investment، but capital costs، have the positive effect on private investment but are meaningless. So pay more attention to the development of infrastructure and as well as supporting private sector led growth and prosperity of this part. Inflation factors as production costs have a negative effect on private investment، but the variables related to the oil shock and development programs have a positive effect on private investment. Thus، suggest that government have newer support of the constitution 44 original based on privatization and with reduced consumer spending and investment guidance to manufacturing sector، Provide suitable conditions for growth and activity of the private sector.