فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و آمایش فضا
سال بیستم شماره 1 (پیاپی 91، بهار 1395)

Recently, MADM methods of spatial analysis has been expanded in Arc GIS. MADM methods are powerful set of techniques and processes to designing, evaluating and ordering decision alternatives. The purpose of the research is validity valuation of MADM methods in suitable urban spheres development of study area. We selected 8 criteria (slope, aspect, elevation, land use, distance of: river, city areas, main roads and fault). Method of research is descriptive–analytical. We used the AHP model in the software of Expert Choice for weighting the criteria. There are many MADM methods. In this paper we used four models (SAW, TOPSIS, VIKOR and AHP). Then the above models are used to evaluate the criteria in case study by Arc GIS software. In this article also each model classified to 5 classes (very unsuitable, unsuitable, moderately suitable, suitable and highly suitable). Finally, the overall accuracy and kappa coefficient in ERDAS IMAGINE software used for assessment validity of techniques. According to the kappa coefficient, AHP is 83.14% in the first rate. By comparing the results of each model AHP is the most appropriate.

Identifying the future uncertainties and fundamental assumptions in the regional development planning by which the long-term applications have been based on, is one of the main fields in identifying problems and the facing challenges of developmental documents.Post-planning refers to the evaluation of success or failure in the developed policy and planning in the future time horizons. Assumption Based Planning (ABP) is one of the post-planning methods, which could be used in creating stable and adaptable programs. The objective of using the assumption based planning is to reduce the number of avoidable surprises. This research is focused on the relation and the value of each strategy in every future uncertainties of Tehran Province in the vision 1404 and is conducted to correct the long-term development strategies of Tehran Province in the program horizon. The analysis of long-term development strategies of Tehran Province is studied in domain consisting the economic field. This research is a combination of documentary and survey methods in terms of category and is based on new methods in the science of future studies, analytical and exploratory in terms of nature, which is conducted by a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. Therefore, weaknesses and ignorance which exist in the long-term development plan of Tehran Province could be identified and reexamined by utilizing ABP method.

Structural parameter estimation of the forests including deciduous and coniferous is required for understanding environmental cycles including Carbone cycle, hydrological cycle and etc., in a global scale, and sustainable management of the forests, in local scale. Although, the feasibility of different remotely sensed data including optical, radar and Lidar as reliable alternatives for conventional inventory methods have been frequently used for estimating forest structural parameters, the use of multi-temporal radar data have been studied less than the other options for this purpose. In this study the radar images acquired in different dates, were utilized to estimate the structural parameters of a pine plantation. For this purpose, geometric correction and speckle noise reduction methods were applied on multi-polarized Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS)-Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data. Afterwards, different backscatter derivatives along with their corresponding textural information were extracted using grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) for different window sizes and orientations. Afterwards, a stepwise multiple-linear regression was applied to model the relationship between structural parameters and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) attributes. The results indicated that the models based on multi-date SAR data performed better than those derived from single-date SAR data. Moreover, it was shown while the estimation error of mean height is 20.7%, the other parameters were estimated with error of more than 30%. Finally, the effects of slope and tree age on the estimation accuracy of structural parameters were investigated.

The purpose of this work is the identification and classification of heavy rainfall‘s synoptic patterns with 500Hpa balance in west, and south West drip area urmia lice during the years1366-1390. After determining the time and place threshold of heavy rainfall, first 46 days of heavy rainfall in the region were extracted, then the elevation data with 500hectopascal balance between 5-65 degrees of north latitude and 15-65 degrees – east longitude in the form of S-mode matrix for days of heavy rainfall were set. Next, we clustering and fulfilled this aim by means of ward methods and finally the compound map of atmosphere‘s upper and lower balance related to each cluster were prepared and analyzed synoptically. Our results shows that, during the occurrence of heavy rainfall, eat synoptic patterns were mainly dominant. These patterns are of two major groups: the cut-off low and short waves trough. So that, forward ascending movements of these synoptic systems along with polar front jet stream causes a baroclinic unstable atmosphere in the region and conducts low pressure systems from the Mediterranean, red and partly black seas, from the west, and south West Iran toward west, and south West drip area urmia lice and is crucial for pressure loss the occurrence of heavyrainfall.

Villages in border areas are sensitive and fragile that any types of changes and ovulations can have economical and social effect the border functions not only on this area but also due to the dependency principle and systematic view can affect on other areas in country. Therefore, it is essential that the results and effects of any actions should be examined so that by identifying its strengths and weaknesses the steps to plan for making the borders area dynamic can be taken. Regarding these purposes in the present study, the effects of border closure on economic and social indicators of Kawmirabad rural areas in Marivann by applying 260 people’s view (using Cochran’s formula) and security, disciplinary and rural developing officials has been investigated. The study findings following the analysis by descriptive statistics (mode and mean) and inferential statistics (chi-square and Multiple Linear Regression) showed that both groups believed in border peace , transportation and traffic and sense of security on positive actions, but local people in contrary of officials believe that border closure makes their living situation worse. The Multiple Linear Regression showed that this bad living condition is the most important dimension in rural dissatisfaction from border closure in spite of their consent of other dimensions.

The purpose of the current study is to provide a spatial climate-based model to measure the performance of apple tree via geographical weighted regression model. To this end, cognitive climatic factors were selected on 9-year spans (1996-2005) in line with statistical length of apple tree performance in the stations under study. Thereafter, these factors were entered into geographic information systems in the forms of positioning data layers. Spatial climate-based models were produced with the minimum variance of inflation factor by means of the application of climatic elements with the maximum spatial correlation as independent variables. The optimal model of performance was developed according to the statistical indexes of coefficient of determination, the lowest value of remains, and the lowest percentage of error. The output of the final model indicates that the most important factor in explaining the yield performance of apple tree is the average temperature of December whose role in the North and North West of our country is contrary to South and South East directions and it has a direct relationship with apple performance. Average minimum temperature in March has the second preference in the apple performance whose positioning role is negative in north, west and northeast of the country is direct and in the southern half of the country is opposite. Finally, the local coefficients of total sunshine hours was chosen as the third effective variable. The coefficient of determination (R2) of the model with maximum space explained.

Critical facilities, such as hospitals, outreach centers and other facilities, especially in high density. On the one hand the need for health services and assistance in the crisis, have made remarkable the importance of assessing the structural vulnerability of hospitals is clear from the passive defense. This study aimed to recognize the vulnerability of structures in terms of passive defense in Ahvaz hospitals. The method of this research is based on purpose theoretical-practical in nature and methods, descriptive and analytical. Data collection tools are libraries, online questionnaire and data analyzing software based Excel, Arc GIS and Google Earth. The research analysis model is mixed by Fuzzy AHP (FAHP).The findings of the research have shown that the structural vulnerability of hospitals in average is 0.269 related with all eight regions in Ahvaz. In the four region hospitals have shown the highest rate of vulnerable with 0.284 and one and six regions with 0.257 shown the lowest structural vulnerability. Therefore, the vulnerability of the hospitals in Ahvaz do not differ significantly and the vulnerability of all of them are in the low range 0.200 to 0.350.The physical vulnerability of human settlements in natural and manmade disasters is a serious risk.

Satrategic planning is an approchfor management to do better and for get aimes. Thus strategic planning can use in tourism management. Touris strategy is in the core of tourism scince such as other activities.in thise regard SWOT model used fof strategic planning in tourism planning. Today with assessment of SWOT model understood that is qualified and haven’t predicat potaintial, thuse SWOT can supersed with Meta-SWOT. Formation of thise model has seven stepes that any step has seven steps. The purpose of this paper is to make brainstorm and ranking of decisions. Because of individuals changes your decision in during of activities, this tool can review input unbounded. This research is for tourism development in Yazd city and introduces Meta-SWOT for the first time.the methodology of this research is descriptive and analytical and data collection methods are documentary and survey. The results show that political stability is the main reseon for tourism development in Yazd city, and the other factor for tourism development in Yazd city are: economics constrains, note autthurities, human power and investment in tourism plans. The economics constrains for development of tourism in Yazd city depend on industries, legal restrictions and monetrary and currency problems.

During the last 15 years, extensive theoretical and conceptual literature in the domain of polycentrism and polycentric has been created. In this study, we tried to present an index for evaluating the amount of polycentrism of functional area by considering two simultaneous dimensions whether functional or morphological. This index discusses about the potential and achievement capacity to a balanced polycentric structure in an urban system. In the present study, relational methods and particularly social network analysis applied. Functions which should be reviewed are as follows: People’s circumstances, commodity, fund and information. Results show that, the “PGF” index of people and goods’ flows are 0.099. Furthermore, the “PSF” index of capital and information’ flows are about 0.12 and 0.15 and the degree of “P¯¯GF ” index hit the score of 0.117. Comparing to the maximum reachable and reality level of the number which is 0.25 in Randstad, it seems to meet a partially good degree of polycentricity. Finally, the magnitude of calculated index shows that the polycentrism structure of Mazandaran province share a highly significant performance and it has the potential to increase the performance of network to a complete balance structure with maximum efficiency. Also, maximum interval time for considering a point in the urban network is 150 minutes. This interval time is a prerequisite for making a point in the urban network. Therefore, those cities which have more interval time than 150 minutes, they cannot have efficient interactions to the structure of urban network.

Tackling environmental hazards has always been one of the main concerns of the country is responsible for program planners. Unfortunately, due to the risks of the operation and less attention is gradual subsidence due to increased exploitation of Aquifers in recent years, learned to be a common problem accordingly. This study evaluates the possibility of subsidence phenomenon possible dangers it as a threat to human projects within the study adhered Kermanshah Plain. The statistics used for this study, 22 of 65 wells using geographic information system maps for the drop in water was prepared. The area that was chosen by the loss of water and geologic logs wells studies to identify the range of sensitivity maps were studied sediment deposits were prepared creating subsidence phenomenon. Finally, using the fuzzy model in GIS software, each layering sensitivity deposits fall in water level set membership, using overlapping gamma phase map sensitivity of the phenomenon of subsidence in 3 classe's sensitivity of large, moderate and low was preparation. The above map shows that the risk of subsidence phenomenon eastern city of Kermanshah in the southern village of Deh pahn that the drop in groundwater is high, the fine-grained sediments are higher than elsewhere in the region.