فصلنامه آفاق امنیت
پیاپی 39 (تابستان 1397)

Deepening is a new term for a constant mission for revolutionary institutions, especially for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which the strategic leaders and thinkers of the Islamic Revolution made efforts to achievement it in both internal and external dimensions. However, despite the enormous guidelines of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution in this regard, lack of an appropriate and scientifically valid model at the level of the Islamic Revolution and based on these guidelines, caused the policymakers to compensate for this deficiency. They aimed at extending their values ​​in the far setting and increase the scope of their work in various environments, confine the threats against the national security, and optimize the situation for the fulfillment of national security interests. To achieve the goal, this purposive research, which follows mixed method in terms of data collection, provides scientific validity for the model of the external deepening at Islamic Revolution level. Employing grounded theory as research strategy, the researchers reviewed all the guidelines of the Supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution to collect the data required for the validity of the model. Maxxidae12 qualitative analysis software was employed to design a graph containing aspects, dimensions, and components of that concept, and to validate it in two steps. In the first step, Delphi method was used and seven experts were asked to comment on the graphical representation of the final model. The outcome of this step was a model at three levels of "exporting the revolution", "reflections of the revolution" and "the expansion of the Islamic Revolution", which were designed including 24 components in 4 dimensions of “requirements for the modeling of the revolution", "the possibilities of the modeling of the revolution", "requirements for creating movements", and "expanding revolutionary discourse". Then, the output model of the first stage was validated in a sample of 24 experts of the research sample. At this stage, the results of the CVR ratio of Lauxh test confirmed the validity of the model. However, the results of Friedman test and its rational coefficient showed that the component of "dedication to divine people" at 95% confidence level was not statistically significant. Therefore, the model containing the remaining 23 components was presented as a model for external deepening of the Islamic revolution derived from political thought of the Supreme Leader. The results also indicated that the components of the “ideals of Palestine ", "struggling arrogance" and "organizational attempts before the victory”, and “systematization” after the success of the movements" play the most significant role in the external deepening of the Islamic Revolution in homogeneous and heterogeneous environments

Ethnic identity, as psychological and mental processes among various ethnic groups, is not a security phenomenon to require careful examination of the security issues. Rather, when it is politicized and is accompanied by a kind of ethnic identity process due to any causes, it turns into an important political issue imposing security implications. This study deals with the context and causes of ethnicity as political process. Then the study identifies the structural and factors leading to the formation of identity among the ethnic groups. It ultimately analyzes the significant consequences of this issue and its relationship with ethnic conflicts and the arousal of security challenges, and designs a model for analyzing ethnic problems.

The policies of the United States and Europe had been based on making security challenges up the acheivement of the G + 1 countries to the Geneva, Lausanne and Vienna agreements. The main reason for such challenges related to the changes in the regional power balance, and the opposition of influential actors in the global policies against Iran's behavioral patterns. The US followed coercive diplomacy as its strategic action model in case of Comprehensive Action Program to restrict Iran's strategic capabilities. The crisis management processes in Iran's relationship with the 5 + 1 countries are based on indications from nuclear diplomacy. The US strategic goals could not be achieved through this process. Donald Trump’s withdrawal from JCPOA designated such a situation. Given this situation and based on the geopolitical security concerns posed by Iran’s missile power and the geographic proximity of European countries to Iran can be considered as the main cause of the persistence of European countries on the continuation of JCPOA. This study investigates the relationship between Iran's nuclear diplomacy and that of Europe, and the study of the causes and consequences of the continuation of Europe's remaining after US withdrawal. The research question involves the influence of the nuclear diplomacy and Europe in international politics and security. The research hypothesizes that the nuclear diplomacy has intensified contradictions between Iran and the United States relating international politics. Aggressive neo-realism is used in this paper as an approach emphasizing on diplomacy and negotiation as the main axis for global peace. This research is carried out based on qualitative method.

Terrorist groups have been regarded as important threats against national security throughout various eras. Justifying their monopolistic and ideological actions against national identity, they polarize the society and eventually disrupt national security. The purpose of this study is to predict the behavior of Takfiri and terrorist groups in future and their impacts on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). The main question of the research concerns how the behavior of Takfiri groups affects the future of the national security of the IRI during 2018-2028. The research hypothesizes, from a futurist perspective that Takfiri groups will influence political, economic, social, cultural and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran Influences Iran in future by intensifying religious sectarianism, and ethnic and linguistic differences. The research methodology is based on scenario analysis, one of the most important methods of futures analysis. The research findings indicate that four scenarios can be considered in this regard: 1. Probable scenario: the continuation of the existing situation of this time, and the likelihood that the Takfiri groups impose great problems on the national security of IRI in the vulnerable areas. 2. Desirable scenario: complete elimination of Takfiri groups with no threats against the security of Iran. 3. Possible scenario: complete success of Takfiri groups in the region and the possibility of completely distorting the national security of Iran by penetrating into the country. 4. Plausible scenario: the failure and removal of Takfiri groups from the Middle East to areas far away, such as Africa or Far East in Asia, with minimal impact on Iran’s national security. The weakness and strengths of each of these scenarios are discussed in a framework containing 12 indicators. The theoretical framework of this research is based on the theory of defensive and offensive realism.

The Middle East has always been regarded as a strategically important region in many aspects throughout its history, and has received more attention in recent centuries. On the other hand, it has been the most unstable region in the world, and the most susceptible geographical area of ​​generating and nurturing various terrorist groups in recent decades. All these are the results of rivalries and developmental regional and trans-regional attempts. Since its establishment (1932 AD), Saudi Arabia has always pursued its policy of increased domination and influence over a wider region. These attempts intensified significantly after the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, with the support of the Western powers and the enormous income derived from oil sales. Employing descriptive-analytical method, this research is intended to investigate the regional threats and consequences of territory development in the region and especially against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The main discussion of the authors of this paper maintains that the subjective and objective domination of Saudi Arabia are the main cause of instability, tensions, spread of terrorism and extremism in the region, triggering sectarian conflicts, increase of military and weaponry rivalries, and instability in national territories. Saudi Arabia also aims at creating religious division and conflicts in the country, undermining national identity, creating ethnic conflicts, expanding and supporting terrorist groups, and striving to isolate and reduce the regional influence of Iran, consolidating the fake Zionist regime, weakening the resistance axis, establishing political and military alliance against Iran, trying to make use of economic pressure on the Islamic Republic of Iran by exploiting the advantages of rising and falling oil prices, and attempting to reduce the strategic position of the of Hormuz Strait to insert the most severe attempts and threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

According to the theory of neo-behaviorism, the concept of security concerns cultural element more than other elements, and considers iconographic constructions such as history and culture, as essential factors of stabilizing security. Moreover, the significance of the concept of power in this theory gives a multi-dimensional and hierarchical concept to security. Therefore, the convergent security behaviors of the United States and Saudi Arabia, which was established since 2011, and extended to strategic levels since 2017, after presidential changes in America, are investigated in several respects. These dimensions include fundamental issues such as hegemony, ideology and culture. According to the theory of neo-behaviorism, lack of established cultural structures, and the ideological accumulation are important features that signify vulnerability of security of a country. Employing a descriptive-analytical method, this study tries to answer two questions regarding how the increasing security measures of Saudi Arabia in the region can be explained, and what its increasing security relationship with the United States, especially after Donald Tramp, will bring about. The results designate that concepts such as ideological dependence, the loss of historical background of nation-state situation, the deficiency in soft-cultural identities and single-party power determine and justify Saudi’s growing external environmental security. In other words, using its ideological shortcomings, Saudi Arabia tries to exploit conflicts in the external environment to fill the historical and cultural gap in its nation-state background. Consequently, security behaviors and hard power are being reproduced in the Persian Gulf region and West Asia.