نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 13 (بهار 1392)

This study investigates the impacts of price and policy shocks on output gap and inflation in the Iranian economy. Thus, a small-scale open macro-econometric model, included the output gap, inflation, investment, real money supply, government expenditure, real exchange rate and oil revenues is estimated using the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) approach based on the data available annually time series covering the period 1961 – 2010.
Impulse response functions show an expansionary monetary shock increases output gap and inflation. Although, the impact of expansionary government expenditure shock is positive on output gap, but because of inflationary budget deficit financing, the money supply and inflation also increase. As a result of the positive oil revenues shock, the output gap, money supply and inflation rise where in the context of a managed exchange rate regime, the real exchange rate appreciates and leads to a decline in competitiveness of the economy.
The forecast error variance decomposition shows that the variability in the output, apart from its own shock, is explained substantially by government expenditure and real exchange rate shocks. The study reveals that the variability in the inflation is also explained by government expenditure, output and money supply shocks. The policy implication of these findings is that fiscal policy can be used more effectively to stabilize the domestic economy.

Selection of the currency system through various economic variables plays a significant role in the future of every society. In addition, many factors influence this choice of a country's currency. Therefore, in this paper we seek to identify and evaluate the impact of these factors on the choice of currency regime in Iran and member of OPEC.
In order to achieve experimental results, data from 1965 to 2012 related to Iran and the OPEC member countries are used and the equations are estimated by two different methods which are probit model and probit random panel model.The results indicate that the most important factor in increasing the probability of choosing a fixed currency system of these countries, is foreign reserves variable. In fact, this finding implies that whenever these countries have adequate reserves to meet its budgetary resources, exchange rate were fixed (Positive correlation between the foreign currency reserves and fixed exchange rate regime). On the other hand, whenever they’ve been faced with a shortage of foreign currency reserves, their exchange rate has been changed (Negative correlation between the foreign currency reserves and fixed exchange rate regime).

This research is an attempt to study about the optimal monetary rule in floating and managed exchange-rate regimes in a form of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, considering oil export economy. It is given that Central Bank's decisions in floating exchange rate regime is based on one optimal monetary rule related to the loss function of central bank to stabilize macro economy in small open economy, but in managed exchange rate regime, the decision making is based on the feedback of two political rules, one of them is for nominal interest rate and the other one is for changing in nominal value of exchange rate, and Central Bank’s decisions is based on the interaction between interest and exchange rates. As a result, the research shows that, if decision making is according to the optimal monetary rule while decreasing inflation has more importance than economic growth, the loss function of central bank is minimized in both regimes. Therefore the proposed model shows that how central bank can make a better political decision (low loss) by administrating goals policies (interest and exchange rate) in floating and managed exchange-rate regimes. The model is solved by using Dynare and Calibration method.

In economic literature, many studies have been done on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. But on the impact of financial market development on income distribution, a few research has been studied, especially, about the relationship between financial development on export sector and income distribution, we didn’t find (Based on Internet searching) any research in Iran and other countries. This paper examines the relationship between financial development on export sector (largely through the development of export credit agencies) and income distribution in Iran.
The model described in this paper is based on Auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL). Gini coefficient is used as a measure of income inequality, and the ratio of exports facilities to GDP is used as indicator of financial development on export sector. The results of the estimated model for 1373 to 2010, shows that financial development on export sector, will increase inequality in iran.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of exports on technical efficiency in food and beverages industry in Iran over the period 2000-2009. For this purpose, at first, the technical efficiency in food and beverages industry has been estimated by using stochastic frontier production function, which indicates that average technical efficiency is 0.62. Then, the link between technical efficiency index and food and beverages exports has been estimated by using Dynamic panel data approach. The empirical results show that the exports and R&D expenses have a positive and significant effect on the technical efficiency of food and beverages industry in Iran. So, the human capital has negative and significant effect on the technical efficiency of food and beverages industry.

Productivity in different sections is one of the important factors which affect growth rate. One of these sectors recently absorbed economists’ attention is public education. Results of international tests shows different education systems have different returns. The fact that today’s more than 4% of national income in OECD countries is spend on public education shows the importance of this section and improving productivity in that. In Iran about one million teachers are active to teach more than 12 million students. Even tiny increase in productivity can saves millions of dollar a year. So far, the major methods suggested to improve students’ productivity is via improving the facilities such as decrease the size of classes or increase the teachers’ quality. In this research we try to improve students’ performance via providing them some information about their performance comparing to their classmates which is almost costless. We run an experiment to explore the effect of our mechanism. The results show it works.