نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 19-20 (پاییز و زمستان 1393)

Usually price is one of the main factors which we use from it for control of natural gas demand in household sector. Asymmetric between demand and price is the main base of demand role but asymmetric responses of price and demand in longrun is a problem which ignorance it in estimation of demand function causes to problems. The aim of this paper is to survey asymmetric effects of natural gas price on it's demand in household sector and estimate long run and short run price and income elasticities of natural gas demand. In this paper, an asymmetric effect of natural gas price is surveyed by koyck model in 1991-2013. Results of this paper, reveal that effects of natural gas price on it's demand is not asymmetric in household sector. In this period, long run and short run price elasticities of natural gas demand are -0.87 and -0.48 short run and long run income elasticities of demand are 1.03 and 11.44.

Following a recent speech (in July 2012) by the Iranian Supreme Leader in which he criticized the existing birth-control programs in Iran and warned that such programmers would lead Iran to facing an aging population, the health authorities were reported to have started cutting family planning budgets. It was also reported that the Iranian Parliament was considering the amendment of the 1993 family planning law which limited public benefits for larger families and called for education about family planning in schools. If they succeed, these attempts will bring about a baby-boom in Iran. On the 20th of February 2013 the Iranian Parliament amended this law thus removing all the restrictions which were previously placed for having children[1]. But a baby-boom policy ought to be assessed, in advance, against a number of yardsticks prominent amongst which is the relative cost of child rearing to households. In this paper we argue that the existing child benefit system in Iran, which disregards a number of crucial features of households, is inadequate for delivering a fair outcome, especially in the event that a baby-boom policy succeeds. One way to overcome this inadequacy is to use, as basis for compensating households for the expenses of an additional child, the equivalence scales principle. We use Iran’s Household Expenditure and Income Surveys datasets for 1984-2007 (compiled annually by the Statistical Centre of Iran) to estimate the child equivalence scales ‒ based on both Engle’s and Rothbarth’s methodology ‒ for different household types. We find that households’ main features (size and geographic location) as well as their demographic characteristics such as the number of existing children and their age influence the cost of a new child. He compensation profile that emerges from our estimates suggests the need for redesigning Iran’s child benefit system.

Liquidity constraint of economic agents with disturbance in optimization leads to selection a non-optimal level of decision variables. In the energy economics literature also one reason of energy efficiency gap is related to credit constraint and capital market imperfections. Financial development by easing liquidity constraints also accelerates technological progress and could have a significant effect on energy efficiency. In present study the role of banks credits, as an indicator of financial development, on the energy efficiency of Iran’s economy in 1974-2012 was investigated. Results of the estimated models indicate that financial development through ease of credit constraints directly leads to decrease of energy intensity and therefore energy efficiency improvement, but this effectiveness does not via total factor productivity improvement. In the other words, in period of study financial development through improvement of technological progress does not lead to increase of Iran’s energy efficiency.

This paper examines the influence of development on the dominant method of financing healthcare, the payments out- of- pocket, in 31 provinces during 1384-1390. If this kind of payments would be more than 40% of households’ capacity to pay, they encountered a catastrophic healthcare expenditure.
In this paper, the influence of development (assessed by per capita income and income inequality), inflation and unemployment rates on the proportion of households facing catastrophic healthcare expenditures in a panel data model using data extracted Statistical Center of Iran and software E-views 6 has examined.
Estimated coefficients of the Gini coefficient, unemployment and inflation rates show there are positive relations between them and the proportion of urban households facing the catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Whereas, there is a negative relation between per capita income and the mentioned proportion. Meanwhile, the elasticity of the Gini coefficient has the greatest influence on the mentioned proportion.
The results can be deduced that reform of income distribution, increase per capita income and the policies reduce the misery rate (sum of unemployment and inflation rates), which led to an improvement in society’s economic circumstances, can reduce the proportion of urban households facing the catastrophic healthcare expenditures.

In this paper, the impact of government size, as an index showing economic and political freedom, and oil revenue fluctuations on social capital is analyzed. To do so, we had to define and measure an index for social capital, according to previous studies. Trust is the most common criteria, used in studies. In this research, following Fukuyama approach, we used invers method. Instead of evaluating or measuring social capital as a positive value, the amount of its non-existence is measured. So, we have measured lack of trust (social capital) by defining a compound index. The compound index is made by taking average of two variables: Number of judiciary case (including dishonored checks) and value of ratio of non-performing loans to total loans paid (to private sector), both normalized between zero and one. According to this index, trend of social capital during studying period (1362-1390) is decreasing. Estimating social capital function with government size and oil revenue fluctuations as explanatory variables using ARDL approach, shows that government size as the index for eco-political freedom, and oil revenue fluctuations, both have negative impact on social capital.

In this paper, a relatively small scale Structural Macro-econometric Model is constructed to study the effect of changes in the US dollar value and the price of oil on trade balance and economic growth of Iran. The model contains 24 long run and short run behavioral equations, 11 connecting equations and 27 definitional equations and identities. Within The methodology of co-integration, all the parameters of the equations in the model are estimated using ARDL technique and time series data for the period 1936 to 2012. The appropriateness of the constructed model is assessed by the related statistical tests and dynamic simulations. The simulation results indicate that when the oil price increase in the world market is due to a US dollar depreciation against other currencies, on one hand, Iran’s dollar revenue increases but on the other hand, imports also increases. Fallowing a jump in the world’s oil prices, yet the general domestic price level tends to increase due to the imported inflation. In all, simulation results show that the increase in dollar revenue due to the depreciation of dollar and hence the increase in oil prices, do not reduce the growth rate of the Iranian economy. Thus, even if it is perceived that an increase in income of the oil exporting countries due to an increase in oil prices will reduce their economic growth rate, the results of this study show that when this income increase is achieved through the depreciation of dollar, the economic growth of the Iranian economy will not decrease.

Nowadays, life insurance plays a major role in the economy of different countries especially developed countries. Despite the numerous applications of life insurance, this service has remained less popular in Iran just like other developing countries, and its role in Iranian economy and the lives of Iranian people is not significant. Therefore this research studies the factors affecting the demand of life insurance in Iran by simulation of the function of demand for life insurance in three forms of non-linear equations (Cobb-Douglas, quadratic and exponential) using gravitational search optimization algorithm. The variables of real per capita sold life insurance, real GDP per capita, the probability of death, literacy, responsibility and inflation rate between 1978 and 2013 are expanded in these equations. The findings of the study showed that Cobb-Douglas's form of demand for life insurance presents better results in comparison with the two other forms. Accordingly, GPD per capita (as a symptom of income), literacy, responsibility and death probability have significant impact on the demand and by contrast, inflation rate have negative impact on demand for life insurance.

Consumption is an important component of aggregate demand and among the main drivers of gross domestic product. This paper, therefore, identifies the factors affecting domestic consumption in Iran, with an emphasis on the volatility of real effective exchange rate, using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Error Correction Model (ECM), for a time period of 1988Q2-2010Q1. The findings reveal that gross domestic product (GDP) has a positive relationship with Consumption, while the saving interest rates as well as the volatility of real effective exchange rate have a negative effect. To smooth consumption trends and reduce its fluctuations, policy measures to stabilize real effective exchange rate are recommended.