نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 34 (تابستان 1397)

The main purpose of the study is to analyze the effective factors on fiscal instability of oil-exporting countries at different levels of dependency on oil revenues based on the threshold panel approach. Due to the ineffectiveness of the overall balance-of-budget indicator in oil countries as the basis for analyzing the government's fiscal policy, in this study, "The ratio of Non- Oil budget deficit to Non- Oil GDP" is used to measure the financial instability indicator in 2006- 2015 period. The findings of the research, while confirming the existence of threshold effect (ratio of the oil revenues to total government revenues) in the model, show that with increasing government revenue due to cash seigniorage as well as rising inflation, financial instability increase. In addition, if the dependence on oil revenues is higher than the threshold level calculated (29%), the effect of dependency on oil revenue on the financial instability index is more than 3 times, when dependency on oil revenue will be lower than threshold level. The findings of this study confirm the necessity of planning and orientation in oil exporting countries in order to reduce the structural dependency of the state budget on oil revenues.

Regarding the role of the financial system as a complement to the real sector of the economy, its proper function has always been the focus of concern for economic policy makers. Given the importance of the relationship between financial stability and economic performance, this study investigates it empirically in OPEC countries by using annual data during 2000-2016. To estimate the relationship, we follow the dynamic panel Model an the mentioned model is estimated using the systemic GMM estimator after controlling the effect of countries financial deepening level. In this research, Alternative indicators of financial stability such as: institutional indicators, micro and macro indicators, and author-introduced indicators, and also, economic performance index such as: GDP per capita growth, household per capita consumption growth, and the growth of gross fixed capital formation are used. The results indicate that financial stability has a significant positive effect on economic performance in OPEC countries.

One of the foundations for development and economic growth is the expansion of private sector investment. It is necessary to pay attention to the relevant variables in this regard and to examine their role. Therefore, this study examines the role of macroeconomic uncertainty and public expenditure in determining private investment in Iran based on seasonal and annual data during 1368-1394. For this, first, the macroeconomic uncertainty was extracted using stochastic volatility model. Then, to investigate the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty and public expenditure on private investment, we usedMixed frequency Data Sampling (MIDAS) approach. The results showed that the increase of macroeconomic uncertainty as well as the increase of GDP have negative and positive effectson the private sector investment in Iran, respectively. Furthermore, the public consumption expenditure has a negative and significant effect on private sector investment and significant effect on private sector investment and significant effect on private sector investment

Iran is ranked as the second country in Gas production and fifth country in crude oil production and has a petrochemical industry. This Industry has the first place in non-oil exports and privatization is accrued in this industry. In this paper, we study the impacts of privatization on polyethylene exports of four Iran’s petrochemical firms, i.e Amirkabir, Jam, Maroon, Arya Sasol, in the period of 2004-2015 by using the dynamic panel. Results show that in this period, privatization has a negative effect on the weight of exports in this industry. Therefore the privatization processes need to be revised in this industry

In this study, the direct and indirect effects of transportation sector investment on the creation of value-added and jobs in the economy were studied. For this purpose, after estimating the relationships using ARDL method for the period of 1959-2014, the short-run, long-run, and error correction models estimated. In long-run estimation, the production elasticity of transportation sector relative to the capital is more than twice as large as non-transport sectors. According to these results, and the finding that 1 percent increase in the total value-added leads to 0.3 percent growth in the job creation in the economy, the effect of transport sector investment on the creation of total value-added and jobs reviewed. The results of the shock scenario simulation in the transport sector investment showed that one percentage increase in this variable generated an average of 0.235% growth in the economic value-added and a 0.07% increase in the number of created jobs during the simulated period. According to the nearly 10% share of transportation on the total value-added, this shows a significant effect. Therefore, given the significant effects of transportation in the economy, this sector has the relative ability to develop direct and indirect employment from the channel of production boost.

The main question of this study is that in an environment that we have only precautionary demand for money and assets, which rate of interest assures existence and optimality of equilibrium. This economic environment has two essential properties: heterogeneous agents that face to idiosyncratic risk, and incomplete markets without possibility of complete insurance by means of lending for hedging this risks. In this environment, agents hold precautionary savings in the form of a single asset such as fiat currency, credit, and capital for self-insurancing themselves against idiosyncratic income fluctuations. Bewley models are formed in this environment. In this paper, by using the axiomatic method, we will prove that when agents have access to the two forms of assets for self insurancing, i.e. fiat currency and credit, the necessity of decreasing the interest rate (more than time preference rate) for convergence of consumption and asset and the existence of monetary equilibrium are still true.