فصلنامه جغرافیا و آمایش شهری - منطقه ای
پیاپی 18 (بهار 1395)

Scenario planning is one of the appropriate tools for the strategic planning in uncertain circumstances and when tomorrow’s world is full of various wildcards. The present study has focused on developing and implementing a model for preparing development scenarios of Mazandaran Province in horizon 1410 with a systematic approach. Chain combined methodology was developed to perform the study. Data collecting was mainly based on documentary and Delphi model. Also, cross-impact analysis are used to analyze data by use of MICMAC software and morphologic method are used for analyzing and preparing scenarios by using Morphol software. The results revealed the evolution of key capabilities of Mazandaran province in horizon 1410. In all of the first four scenarios, the presumption of gradual decrease in crops because of changes in land use (especially in western areas) has been emerged which is considered as a serious and key threat for Mazandaran Province specifically for areas near the western areas of the province. Another important result was the coming out of presumption of “over %30 of exchanges growth of Feridoonkenar port” seen as an effective factor in province development, which is able to create a strong development pole in areas towards the geographical center of the province. In tourism sector of the first four scenarios, the optimistic presumption of “development of tourism infrastructure in the west of province and take initial steps for regional branding in transnational scale” has appeared which hoped that development conditions in the west areas of the province would be improved.

Cities like living organisms will become more complex from the structure point of view and become greater from physical view and following this physical growth, their economical, social and cultural development is changed gradually. Always the physical environment of the cities are under the effect of such mechanism and factors which will change during the time by the economical, social, cultural, political , environmental progresses and changes. Also these impacts impose new changes on the feature and physical landscape of the city. Therefore, Preventing the unbalanced and uncontrolled growth of cities has high importance because of high value of land. Therefore, modeling and forecasting of land use changes in future have become more important for urban managers and other decision makers. The Cellular Automata model has vastly been used in temporal-spatial changes simulation because of its simple and dynamic structure and the power of geospatial analysis. In this paper, with considering the existing limitations in current cellular pattern, a combined automata model has been presented which is an integration of the cellular computational structure and multi criteria decision making approach, Majority OWA. The Cellular Automata model uses average method for combining land use suitability maps and computing the total general suitability that it is not suitable in many applications. But Majority OWA approach considers opinion of majority for combining several criteria to evaluate an alternative, so incorporation the two approaches cited can rectify one of the important defects in cellular automata model. This article, at first, by implementation of the proposed model for simulation of Shiraz city’s propagation between 2004 to 2009 years and then obtained results have evaluated.Comparing the obtained results in this article for year 2009 by the data obtained from satellite photos in this year shows that using Majority OWA method can model urban development process by 60% accuracy which in comparing with accuracy 53% of CA model, better results can be achieved. The research findings is a forward step, because the proposed model by increasing the capability of Cellular Automata in modeling the complicated location processes has achieved a better accuracy. The results obtained from this modeling can be presented to the urban planners as an appropriate tool for taking optimum decisions.

Given that the physical development of cities and modern lifestyle has created the demand for the development and creation of green spaces and Parks in the cities, surely, safety arrangements for Parks is of the necessities which is important for the municipalities and always has engaged the mind of urban planners and designers.This paper focuses on the evaluation and analyzing the safety of urban parks in Jahrom. This study, based on the aim is of applied one and from the view point of nature and method is of descriptive-analytical one. The statistical society of this research is Jahrom city which by Cochran formula , the volume of the sample was as selected 180 people and the obtained data were analyzed by using factor analysis and T tests and Spss software. Results of the study show that the mean to the total safety in the under study parks is 2.57%. The highest mean of safety is related National Garden Park (13.3 percent). Chamran (2.6 percent), kouhsar (2.53 percent), Reyhaneh (2.46 percent), parkshahr (2.4 percent) and Golestan (2.26percent) are at the next levels. The analyzed 54 primary indices were combined to 6 factors that inclued legible design, safety, health, physical access, and lighting, a sense of safety and physical safety Based on the results of factor analysis, and the results of the factor analysis indicate that the first factor explains lonely 30.96 percent of variance . The second factor 17.128%, the third one 16.087%, the fourth one 17.731 percent, the fifth one 3.528% and the sixth 2.711 accordingly calculate the percentage of the variance.

Qurkhod protected area with an area of 43000 hectaresis located at the North Khorasan province and adjencent to Golestan national park. The area by having special settlement specifications, different wild life species and tourism attractios has a high potential for planning and tourism development.The current study was conducted to evaluate environmental capability of the area for extensive and intensive recreation. For this purpose, firsty the appropriate criteria for both extensive and intensive recreation were defined and since for each of functions, simultaneous evaluation of several criteria is needed, then multi-criteria evaluation method was used. Four criteria for extensive recreation and 12 criteria for intensive recreation and a limit layer for inhabitat of index species has been considered. The basic maps for each criteria was prepared and standardized by fuzzy method. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used for weighting criteria and the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method used for combining the layers. The results showed that nearly 4800 hectares (approximately %11) of Qurkhod protected area was suitable for intensive outdoor recreation implementation, while nearly 3200 hectares (approximately %8) had the ideal conditions for extensive outdoor recreation development. Physical carrying capacity of the area was estimaed at about 11 persons per hectare.

Residential uses are the most important function of any city that have occupied the largest part of the cities. Supply of housing quality is one of the main objectives of housing programs in developed countries and providing this quality is one of the most serious challenges that housing policies and programs are faced with. The first important feature for adequate housing, is its land. Because the house that is placed in unsuitable location can not provide the requirements of its residents, even if it is appropriate. Therefore, the correct locating of housing in addition to improving the quality of housing will also reduce costs. In this survey, the researcher tries to find prone vacant land for residential establishment in order to achieve the most important purpose of the research that is locating of residential lands and due to the need for new residential buildings in Behbahan. Then it has investigated that the options have the potential for residential establishment or not?" and " Which one is more suitable for this purpose?". For this purpose, in this project after performing library studies and identifying the criteria needed to residential locating, three points of the city have been selected for residential establishment. After attending in these places and doing field activities, these three sites were scored based on criteria listed. We used "bipolar- scale" to change qualitative data into quantitative data. Finally, decision making matrix include alternatives rates is provided. After doing all the TOPSIS method steps that is elaborated in this text, one option is introduced as the best choice among the three options. Then, these areas were closely visited. Surveys conducted, and questioning of the experts about the status of selected sites, confirm the validity of selected options and the accuracy of the TOPSIS method.

Livelihood assets (human, physical, natural, financial, social) in fact are considered as the determinant of the life base of the living of people in human settlements especially in rural areas. These assets in the form of livelihood approach can be applied as a framework for better understanding and analysis of the role of people in rural areas development. Hence the present study while assessing the livelihood assets in rural areas of Qasrgqand township, has analyzed the effective geographical impacts on it. In this regard, the most important factors affecting the geographical can be named spatial, demographic and economic factors. Research method is the descriptive - analytical and statistical population are rural residents of Qasrgqand township. Number of samples are 329 rural headed households from 23 nominated villages. Data were collected through questionnaires by randomly and were analyzed by statistical methods in software SPSS software environment . In this study, the independent variables are the effective geographical factors and the dependent variable is the household's livelihood. Overall results indicate a low level of livelihood of households in rural areas with an average value of (2.19) and indicate the weakness in infrastructure and assets of livelihood (except social capital). Also according to the results, all the variables of spatial (establishment feature, connecting situation, type of access road, distance from centers of penetrating) are affective on the livelihood of rural People. Among the demographic factors, population size and family size have no relationship with the level of household's livelihood. But ratio of literacy and emigrating during the last 7 years (2006 up to 2013respectively shows a direct relationship and meaningful inverse relationship with the level of household's livelihood. Among the economic factors (average of income, employment rate and ownership average) and level of household's livelihood, there is a positive and meaningful relationship.Among all geographical factors, economic factors with coefficient of 0.425 show the highest effect and spatial factors with coefficient -0.142 the lowest effect on the household livelihood.

Using GIS in locating has a history that is as old as the presence of GIS itself. This ability is used in different studies which some how engaging with location features. Time and operational cost saving are the main advantages of this system. Therefore, using GIS technology in site-selection and other related activities guarantees better, faster, and more accurate results with lowers costs. Ever since, site-selection has been done by various methods with different models. In most of these studies and also the studies which is about space zoning, It should be mentioned that few studies have done using data-based methods. ( objective methods). Therefore, investigating and recognizing an optimum pattern in combining the various Knowledge-based and Data-based techniques and models in GIS and how to combining the results (Decision Fusion) to select the best site with sufficient precision seems necessart. Furthermore, the method of integtrating the results obtained from different methods in GIS is among the items which is less considered in the studies.In this research, Knowledge-based and Data-based methods have been used to primary zoning of the geographical space and prioritizing the recognized optimum sites. Also, recommended pattern used to identify each mentioned techniques properties with respect to the results of a case study (economical zoning of the urban space and prioritizing the optimum zones) have described as a finding. Results of assessment shows that the three Data-based methods (RBFLN, Fuzzy Clustering and PNNý) have better performance in comparing with Knowledge-based methods (SAW, GCA and Fuzzy Logic). Furthermore, Tajrish, Enghlab and 15th Khordad squares gain the firs rank in ranking by multi-criteria techniques by quality criteria.

Tourism is one of the growing industries in the world and countries in all stages of development are increasingly dependent on it. Tourism, as an intersectional industry encompasses various activities and has direct and indirect interactions with all sectors of the economy, society and culture. Shivand Village in Dehdez District of Eize township can enjoy the numerous tourism potentials. Identifying these capabilities and provide the infrastructures required for tourism development, could be a factor in the development of this region. Therefore, the present study used survey method and field studies to determine the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats presented by the SWOT method for tourism development in the village of Shivand. Results show that beauty and unique landscapes and gardens and green fields are the most important internal strength factors and unaffordability of welfare and accomodation facilities are as the most important internal weakness factor, increase of motivation for travel and recreation is the most important opportunity for tourism development and cultivated lands and farms destruction is most important threat for tourism development in Shivand village. The study findings show that the strategies for providing and performing tourism development programs by using the state's validities, enjoying the competing advantages of the region for attraction of tourists, provision of encouraging packages for investors of private part for developing tourism facilities in the area and planning for attraction of tourists based on the created leisure time in urban socities , respectively are the most important nominated strategies for performance of tourism development in Shivand village .

Today, cities have always been considered as one of the most important tourists’ destinations. Consequently, the urban tourism is one of the most tourism types, thus discipline in cities’ tourism spaces is an unavoidable necessity for urban management and planning. Urban tourism planning requires accurate identification of tourism spaces within the city. These spaces have been developed from three linear, spot and surface patterns that can be significant with tourists’ tourism process and their Motion. City of Kerman due to having leisure and tourism attractions and having suitable infrastructures have appealed many tourists in each year, so that the present research aims to determine tourism Specific route in City of Kerman for the purpose of organizing tourism spaces with a systematic look into management and planning process of urban tourism spaces. Descriptive-analytic method has been used in this study that the data were collected through field and library study, and questionnaire has been used in survey method, and the sample size (N=357) has been determined using Cochran formula, so that the questionnaire has been distributed in random among the tourists. Then, the data have been analyzed in GIS software so that after merging linear and spot patterns and motionprocess of tourist in access to attractions, the specific tourism routeWhich consists of the distance between Arg square Up to Intersection north-east and distance between Moshtagie square Up to Atashkedeh street were determined in Kerman city. According to the research findings, it was specified that a systematic attitude is needed to propose a suitable Special pattern so as to determine specific tourism route , considering the attraction rate of tourism destinations, observe tourists’ preferences in selecting the trips within the city, and apply urbanization principles and standards in selection of optimal paths, which it must be included of maximum tourists’ motion density.

The main purpose of this research is to study the role of Caspian Sea on the rainfall occurrence in the southern coast of Caspian Sea. The ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) coupled with a Lake model was used to investigate the role of Caspian Sea at regional scale. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset were used as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and the eliminated Caspian Sea condition was compared with the control and was made for 2003-2005. The result indicate that changing the rainfall amount in southern coast of Caspian Sea is generally related to the intensity of northerly wind blowing over the Caspian Sea. The simulation indicates that by eliminating Caspian Sea, most of the rainfall changes would occur in the southern coast of Caspian Sea. The role of Caspian Sea is different according to season and the most regional effect of Caspian Sea is observed in autumn and winter and lower effects is shown in spring. However, by eliminating the Caspian Sea, the most rainfall reduction occurs in southwestern to southern parts of the Caspian Sea. The findings also indicate that Caspian Sea will play a more effective and widespread role when the wind blows more strongly compared with the time when it blows with a less intensity. Eliminating the Caspian Sea, ascending air significantly decreases by increasing the surface drag and decreasing the wind velocity in the southern coastlines. This mechanism would accompany with the evaporation amount reduction, decreasing moisture transport from sea surface and decrease of rainfall in the farthermost south regions of the sea. However, RegCM4 model faced with a challenge in enhancing the amount and spatial distribution of spring precipitation over the area, even though; the results are acceptable and reliable for all other seasons.

The concept of sustainable development is based on generating a balance in environment and in terms of spatial , the cities are the most important intersection of human and environment. Therefore, attention to the urban lifestyles and planning, in order to establish ecological balance in cities is essential for sustainable urban development. Among the 10 districts of Tabriz metropolitan, zone 8, due to historical, cultural, heritage and tourism is one of the most strategic and important areas. The district's location as the central tissue of Tabriz, has doubled the importance of expansion of green spaces and urban parks. Present study is an Analytical-descriptive research, which has been provided by the functional nature. This study has attempted to present an appropriate pattern of spatial arrangement of urban green spaces in the study area with respect to parameters of sustainable urban development using a combination of capabilities of GIS and TOPSIS model. In this research, after selecting the effective criteria and weighting them, by combining these criteria using TOPSIS model which is compensatory model in multi-criteria decision systems, the optimal places for the use of green spaces in district 8 of Tabriz Municipality was selected. According to TOPSIS model’s output map and comparing it with land-use map of the study area, it was found that the suitable land for creating green spaces are in large proportion of land use. In the following ,according to the high air and noise pollution in the study area due to its central location in the city, proper native species has been introduced to prevent air and noise pollution. The use of native plant species and proper planning of urban green space will cause the diversity, beauty and improve the ecological environment and ultimately will also bring the environmental sustainability of cities. Therefore planning to create a sustainable green space in this area to achieve a sustainable urban environment is essential and this planning must be led toward the direction which followed Stability and costs reduction.

Growth of population and increase of immigration to Ahvaz, ( subsequent to the policy of lands reformation , increase of oil price and flowing petro dollars in to Ahvaz, as the province center , increasing development of different industries, increase the political and administrative importance of this city , imposed war and . . . has created the rapid growth of urbanization in Ahvaz city. Rapid growth of urbanization in Ahvaz has created some problems for this city, as the seventh metropolitan city of our country regarding the quality of life. The present study has been carried out with the aim of conducting an analysis of selected indicators of quality of life in Ahvaz in cases of Kianpars, Golestan and Ameri. This theoretical – practical research has been carried out with a descriptive - analytical method. The information needed to conduct this research was collected by the application of survey and Library method. The data and information were analyzed by using SPSS and EXCEL. Findings were achieved on both qualitative and quantitative level. Qualitative findings show that rapid growth of Ahvaz has been the important factor in stay back of the planners in quality development in proportion to the quantity development. In fact, the genesis and expansion of the volume of marginal areas (about 40 percent), inequalities and imbalance in urban per capita allocation and development of environmental problems have been the most important consequences of rapid urbanization in quality of life in Ahvaz. Based on other part of the quantitative findings, in terms of satisfaction and quality of life, significant differences have been observed among the aforementioned districts under the study. Generally, selection indicators employment, income, transportation, residential condition, education, health, security, leisure, dependence and belonging to the district and ICT, Kianpars with the highest quality of life was identified as superior, Golestan was identified as medium and Ameri has the lowest level of satisfaction and quality of life. Based on the results and system and geographic approach, In the study process, 'where', 'how' and 'why' questions about the topic of this thesis, it can be said that rapid and unbridled urbanization has severely limited many opportunities for improving the quality of life in Ahvaz and on the other hand, it has caused inharmonious and unbalanced conditions in different urban environments. Finally, in accordance to the findings, suitable solutions have been proposed.

Chaotic and uncontrolled physical expansion of cities is one of the problems of the city and citizenship of the third world in the modern time , so that, through a continuous process, the physical limits and spaces of the city is growing, in terms of quantity and qualityin both vertical and horizontal directions . Therefore, one of the causes for forming this trend and also one of the most important consequences of it , is the urban outskirting. And if this process is being quick and uncontrolled, will lead to an inappropriate combination of problematic urban spaces .Therefore, one of the most important factors in shaping this trend and also one of the most important consequences of it, is the urban outskirting.These areas, from the view point of physical-social indicators are situated in an undesirable conditions.Therefore, the purpose of this paper is the evaluation of cellular physical - social parameter's changes in the marginal areas at the north part of Tabriz city. Thestatistical population is the marginalized areas of the northern part of Tabriz in 1996-2006. The study method is of applied descriptive-analytical and comparative one and to evaluate the changes ranged from 1996 to 2006, LCM and Crosstab method have been used in software environment Edrisi Selva.The study results by Crosstab method suggests that physical - social indicators during this time period at downskirts areas at the northern part of Tabriz city has improved in quality and quantity. During this period, as we close from the geographic downskirts to the city texture, the quantity and quality indicators will increase and shows that in this course , the movement of indicators in urban blocks has improved from the margin to the text part.

village, is a dynamic phenomenon like city, that is passing the development process based on the amount of incoming changes and Adaptation of internal processes with them. It requires a flexible and effective decision-making model to be used for directing its Shaping forces . In designing these models, not only the general economic component and social considerations but also the tendency and public participation for supporting these models are very effective. In this case, one of the notable aspects is the process of renovation and reforming of rural housing which reflects the desire of the residents to revive rural housing. In this respect, the quantitative estimate of willingness to pay for each of the environmental values are important in performing these projects. In economic thinking, for assessing such social trends, it's taken advantage of various methods and the most popular one is experimental method. The aim of this study is to detect rating method, and calculate the amount of willingness to pay for environmental values and get a loan to upgrade the level of the quality of each of the environmental values in 10 villages of Abadeh-tashk zone, so it's tried to assess the rating of environmental values based on the resident's points of view and the willingness to pay villagers for each of the environmental values. The results of the experimental selection method showed that in the resident's opinion, all the value variables for choosing housing parameters, have meaningful relationship with each other (P>0.05) except for the aesthetic variable which is sig