فصلنامه جغرافیا و آمایش شهری - منطقه ای
پیاپی 17 (زمستان 1394)

Predicting the amount of available water is one of the important and effective factors in programming and managing the water resources and its estimation during various temporal scales has great importance in agricultural planning. Time series is one of the studying methods for predicting. Various models and approaches have been proposed to achieve this purpose; including ARIMA and AR,MA temporal series models. In this research, the performance of each mentioned models during the estimation of future amounts Zayandehrood River since 2006 to 2012 was studied as 72 monthly data series. The results showed that in comparison to all models, AR12 has a more desirable performance and simulates the time series changing trend with less error.

In fact, rural production cooperatives are people-oriented organizations which can meet the abnormalities arising from the existence of small, dispersed and unsuitable fragments of land and also meets the defeciencies of the production devices. In addition, this cooperatives can rescue small farmers from bankruptcy danger. And strengthen the spirit of mutual aid between them. The aim of this article is comparative study of the social – capital components of productive cooperative members and non-member agricultures of such cooperatives in rural areas. The current research is of applied type and its method is analytical- descriptive one. The research tool is questionare and the statistical society of this research includes the member villagers of productive cooperative and non member villagers residing in the areas covered by the productive cooperatives in parsabad township. It should be mentioned that Parsabad is one of the townships of Ardebil province at the northest part of Iran.This city is the largest city in Moghan area and is the central city. Based on cocharan formula, the appropriate sample number for this research was obtained 145 people and for improving the accuracy and validity of findings, the number of members was increased to 150. Also 150 farmers of non members of productive copoperatives were selected. The independant variabls of this research, includes the social capital and the dependant variable is membership in the productive cooperations. In addition, in this research, the content validity of the instrument was established using a panel of colleague cooperators and experts of agricultural Jihad organization Also for recognition of quantitative perpetuity of questionare, Cronbachs alpha coefficient and SPSS software have been used. In this research, the alpa value of different parts of the research questionare was calculated 0.70 up to 0.81. The main findings of this studies showed that, exept one component there exists a direct and significant relationship between all the social capital components with forming productive cooperatives in rural areas of Parsabad.

Overall, what is neglected in the scientific literature and abroad, the role of faith -based organizations in the management and sustainable development of urban neighborhoods. These organizations, which are divided into two categories: the sacred and non- sacred because of his faith in the capacity of double effect are compared to other organizations. neighborhood and complexity of these issues, a comprehensive review and consideration of different aspects in order to resolve the issue of stability (including interest and awareness of social - economic, environmental, educational and community organizations of this type) is inevitable. It is one of the most efficient means of implementing public policy, nonprofit are organizations and faith-based organizations are the most visible manifestation That's because the inner motivations and their faith have double the capacity of policy implementation. in this paper, origin, role and function of faith-based organizations, community-based organizations in the area, a neighborhood of Tehran is trying that The role of these organizations in the management and sustainable development of urban neighborhoods realized. The role of faith-based organizations in the management and sustainable development of local communities is a means of Tehran: Terms of the concept of faith-based organizations, community based organizations, elected in a neighborhood of Tehran are adaptable and compatible with each other this neighborhood has strengthened the management and sustainable development. Knowledge, awareness, education and care in the field of social services - education, the environment, particularly the basic needs of the inhabitants of the most important functional aspects of faith-based organizations (with neighborhood-based organizations) are caused by the formation and strengthening management and sustainable development of the neighborhood in the study area (area 1 neighborhoods of Tehran) has been. Community-based organizations and faith-based organizations are effective in reducing the problems of urban poverty. Sam, are insufficient and uncertain, both in Iran and in the study area, resulting in accurate diagnosis leads the world in organizations, community-based organizations.

Aras Free Trade and Industrial Zone, attributed as one of the six viatal gateways for Iran's local and national economy to seek co-linkeage with global economy, is an output action of various systems in various spatial scales. In other words, this trade and industrial unit as a geographical structure, has its evolutionary trend commanded by systems that organize it intrinsically (in local scale) and extrinsically (under the impacts of other spatial scales) though it is differentiated in the form of one of the structural-functional component of space and its site is defined and determined in space. It appears that the construcuration of Aras Free Trade and Industrial Zone in the space of dependency is overshadowed by the functionality of other power centers located in the spaces of engagement that acts in wider geographical scales. In fact, based on what was previously mentioned, the current research carried out in descriptive-analytical research method seeks to explain the spatial scales influential in the geographical structure and system of Aras Free Trade Zone for which a conceptual-theoretical framework of three-layered global, national and local scales, suggested in World Systems Theory by Peter Taylor in coalition with various spaces of dependency and spaces of engagement, were applied to analyze the status quo. Therefore, according to the findings of this research,the spatial scales influential in the evolutionary trend of Aras Free Trade Zone apparently is more varied than levels of triple geographical scales suggested in World Systems Theory. Indeed, besides threats and opportunities of capitalistic global economy in the widest scale, i.e. global scale, the ideology of nation-state in national scale, i.e., the macro-views of Iranian statecraft men and the impacts of the space of dependency in local scale, i.e., the site and location of Aras Free Zone in Jolfa, the action of two regional (sub-national) scales in North-Western Iran and geopolitical and geo-economical advantages and fixed of Southern Caucasia in regional (supranational) scale are also influential as well as effective in the spatial organization of Aras Free Trade - Industrial Zone.

Quality of urban life is one of the most important fields of urban studies in different countries that under the affection of factors such as time, place, personal and social values have a complex and multidimensional concept and often are measured by using subjective and objective indices and rarely by the both ones. Cities at different scales have benefited of this index completely different, especially the cities with the huge number of emigrations, in spite of having high population and connecting to higher level of urban system, have a great distance from the cities at the same class in the indices of the life quality.This research evaluates the quality of life in the middle-sized cities of Borujerd and Kouhdasht in Lorestan that have different levels of life. This research is made by descriptive method of causation – comparative method. The required data was collected by library-documentary and field surveying method in these cities. The statistical population consisted of citizens over 15 years of age and samples are 643. This is a descriptive research with the comparative method. The results of this research indicated that the satisfaction of citizens in the city of Boroujerd is in the better levels because of the main reasons such as population levels, literacy level, household income, performance of municipal authorities and its infrastructure consist of transportation, educational facilities, care and treatment. From the other findings of this research can be noted to that population levels is effective in citizens, satisfaction levels from quality of life so that the more population and larger city (borujerd) have the more satisfacation from quality of life rather than the smaller city (kuhdasht). Unlike the objective indices, from subjective view in Kouhdasht, the greatest amount of satisfaction is relevant with supplying the main and daily requirements (food, clothing and …) and citizen's feeling comfortable of living in the city which refers to the contentment feature of the people of this area. Generally, the high distance of life quality index of Kuhdasht city with the city at the higher level of medium of the province, indicates this fact that precipitance of Kuhdasht in accepting population and its connection to the middle cities of the province do not mean the development of life indices in this city.As it is clear, studying the condition of indices of the life quality, lack of urban facilities and governing the rural culture besides the problems of emigration has kept this index at a very low level.

Urbanization is a global process that has spread to developing countries in the twentieth century. The integration of villages into cities is a result of rapid urbanization in developing countries. Today it is a spatial-social problem. With the rapid expansion of cities into surrounding villages, take their natural functions. This creates a disparity in the various aspects of physical, economical, social, cultural and environmental issues in the villages.The main objective of this research is to investigate the impact of housing reform in urban and rural primary texture of Jamaran. This research from the objective point of view is an applied one and from nature and method is a descriptive- analytical method. T test at 95% level has been used in this research for studying the significant difference of the indices in the rural areas and the urban textures. The results showed that rural textures is minor. Buildings on the rural textures is degradation, and in the urban textures, is newer. highest Building density is in the rural textures. Most of buildings in the rural textures are one and two storeys. Rural textures have a lower permeability than the urban textures. T-test results showed, there is physical-spatial heterogeneity of housing system between rural and urban texture.

This study was made following the re-recognition of the cause of occurrences of severe, widespread and persistent frost event in 2003 in Iran. Based on previous studies, the cause of the creation and persistent of this sever frost is the dominancy of Siberian high pressure system. For this purpose, the gridded daily minimum temperature, northern hemisphere teleconnection indices and sea level pressure data have been used. Based on the indices of frost wave onset index (FWOI),ending and persistent of cold wave and by considering the spread, the location and time patterns, the frost wave of December 2004 was recognized. On this basis, its starting date was recognized 11 December 2011 and its ending as 16 December 2003, which was persisted for 6 days in Iran's area. Also the location pattern of cold wave has had an east ward arrangement and was dominant in more than 75% of Iran's area in its maximum intense.The highest continuation of cold wave was recorded in the Iranian plateau, while the northern shores of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea on the southern slopes of the Zagros ruggedness have not received the cold wave. Increase and decrease pattern of spatial range of cold wave is a signal for accompany of some recognized systems of sea level pressure with Siberian high pressure system in its occurrence. For this purpose, long term time series (1950-2010) of tele-connection patterns of northern hemisphere were studied from October up to December. For example,co-phase coherence between the patterns of North Sea- Caspian sea, Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation and no phase coherence of the pattern of east of Atlas Ocean- West Russia and the North Pacific Ocean with the standardized index of intensity of Siberian high pressure are the reasons of other pressure systems at the sea level of high pressure system of Siberian in the event of the said frost wave. Assessment of spatial-temporal variability of sea level pressure systems in the before occurrence (08 to 10 December 2003) to occurrence (11 to 16 December 2003) showed that December frost wave has occurred in as a result of an interaction of High Pressure System (AHPS) include Europe, North West Iran and Siberian high pressure systems with Scandinavian low pressure system. Spatial-temporal array type of Scandinavian Low Pressure system has a great important role in the formation, persistent, intensity and rupture of aggregate high pressure system.

People interact with their surroundings naturally. When the individuals decided to launch own firm in the special area, they compelled to consider the effect of human factors in their action. The importance of this subject is shown continuing their activities, the success or failure of firms and as well as providing social and economic development in the region. Since entrepreneurs and policy makers by awareness of these factors to improve own and different areas of the country will be able to target very precisely.The aim of this study is to survey the impact of human factors on the industrial enterprise formation in Iran’s all provinces. This is a descriptive, cause-effect study which thehuman factors explained in three indexes of population, household income and the unemployment rate and the econometric model is estimated by using panel data. The required data has obtained from the Statistical Center of Iran, for the period 2007 - 2011 specialized for the 30 provinces and using of Eviews.6 and Stata.12 software and analyzed by fixed effects model. The research results confirmed the significant regression equation. Also it showed that three human factors of population, household income and unemployment rate have a negative and significant effect on the industrial enterprise formation in Iran’s provinces.

The ecotourism of Iran is among one of the five countries to have so much variation in terms of its climate. Iran also has a rich resort of biosphere which is considered as a good criteria comparing to other aspects of tourism. Arsbaran region located in northwest of Iran is one of the most mysterious places in Iran which has this feature of tourism. This place is one of the ninth valuable resort of biosphere in Iran which not only has various and noticeable source of herbal plants but also a rich and unique resort of wildlife. Due to having various biosphere, valuable biological circumstances, and different flora and fauna; Arsbaran region was entitled the most resourceful biosphere by UNICCO organization in 1976. Though this place has some good capabilities and features for tourism industry, till now, there has not been sufficient research for recognizing these features.Thus the aim of this research is to recognize the different capabilities of tourism of this region based on analytical-descriptive approach. The necessary information of this research is gathered from libraries and field research. And for clarifying the positive and negative features or the opportunities and the threats, the Swot technique has been applied. The statistical population of the research is one hundred and twenty persons who are selected accidentally. Among these people, twenty persons are selected from the authorities and one hundred from the tourists. The outcome of this research shows that the average of the negative and positive points of this region based on analytical Swot technique are more than the whole points of the threats and opportunities, (WT=2/33)>(SO= 3/48), therefore, the desirable suggestion for developing tourism in this region is of invasive kind.

One of the basic principles that should be considered in urban planning is that of spatial distribution of population in relation to hazardous contexts for urban population. Earthquake is one of these risks which its occurrence is followed by irreparable damages. Since fault structure of a zone has a direct relationship with seismicity of that very zone, knowing the fault structure and tectonic structure could cause a proper distribution of population centers to these structures because zones with less than five kilometers away from fault zones are considered critical points, which have the highest risk of earthquake damage. Kerman city is always in danger of earthquake due to its seismic location. This study tries to investigate spatial distribution of Kerman city population centers toward fault structure of Kerman city in a descriptive-analytical way. At first, data were prepared from census of population and housing in Kerman in year 2011. Then types of Kerman faults within 30 km distance from the city were identified. And at the end, distribution of population centers in relation with reverse faults, strike-slip faults, normal faults and minor faults were analyzed. The study results indicate that 669 centers of the population attraction centers are located within 20 kilometers and 407 centers are located within 30 kilometers from the reverse fault, 274 centers are located within 20 kilometers and 775 centers are located within 30 kilometers from the strike-slip fault. 794 centers are located within 20 kilometers and 282 centers are located within 30 kilometers from the normal fault. 699 centers are located within 20 kilometers and 377 centers are located within 30 kilometers from the main fault. At the other hand, 381 centers are located within 4 kilometers and 500 centers are located within 6 kilometers from the minor fault, and three commercial centers, a healthcare center and three educational centers are also located within 800 meters from this kind of fault. In general, commercial and educational centers in study area have the lowest distance to different types of faults, and sports centers have the lowest distribution in the minimum distance of different faults. Due to improper distribution of population attraction centers in the study area, efficient and proper planning for this area is necessary to prevent possible damages.

The present research is aimed to study and determine industrial advantageous activities with high output in Kerman province based on two-digit ISIC`s codes in order to identify industrial investment. In the present research, it has been attempted to determine preferential activities of industrial sector using appropriate indices, factorial analysis and fuzzy logic. Research methodology is documentary and statistical population includes all industrial workshops where ten people are working. Most regions of Kerman province are based on ISIC two-digit codes and information of year 2010. Results showed that activities of “production of main metals”, production of elastic and plastic products”, “production of paper and paper products” and “industries of food and drinkables” with respect to high advantages and appropriate development are the most preferable for industrial investment in comparison with other industrial activities.

Cultural tourism is an important part of tourism in a country or cultural regions that the people's history, traditions, art, values and lifestyle are considered as the most important components in this geographic areas. Purpose of this study is to investigate the Effective Factors on development of cultural tourism from the view point of foreign tourists in Yazd city. Type of Research is applied and it’s Method is analytical - descriptive. Statistical Society is 169 foreign tourists in year 2014 based on Cochran Sampling and also Regular and systematic method. For collecting information, library and field methods have been used. Research findings suggest that 66.9 percent of foreign tourists believe that poor management and lack of performing projects in field of cultural tourism to a large extent can faced the development of cultural tourism with the serious problem. In this regard, 75.2% of tourists believe that the impact of useful and effective advertisement which covers the historical, traditional and architecture values of Kavir, has a great importance and essential effect for attracting cultural tourists. In this regard, 75.2 percent of tourists believe that they know very important and fundamental impact of useful and effective advertising to attract of cultural tourists on Historical values, traditional and Architecture. Obtained standardized coefficients of Structural model in research and level of significance (- 0.0021) shows that the role of all seven components in development of cultural tourism is very important because that significance of all components are greater than 1.96. Results of the structural model of Management Components In the field of Cultural tourism of Yazd city shows that direct effects of how the concurrent administration of historic attractions, amount of investment in tourism industry respectively Equal to 6.79 and 6.09. Also among the components of examined, Components of education have been fundamental weaknesses in the field of cultural tourism. finally, proposed solutions for optimal and sustainable development of cultural tourism in Yazd city.

Inappropriate distribution of urban usages and disregarding the spatial –location components of decision making, including the compatibility of urban land uses are of the main reasons for the loss of quality of life in urban contexts. Therefore, analysis of the arrangement of different uses together and study of their distribution pattern is essential. Therefore, this article tries to use the models which simultaneously able to integrate a great number of quantitative and qualitative criteria like Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and their integration in the form of Geographic Information System(GIS) with the capability of location displaying of phenomenon evaluates the compatibility of the land of status quo in the form of GIS maps in the old texture of Kerman city and the final out put map of this model has been presented. Also, in order to evaluate the distribution of land uses in the study, the closest proximity (RN) has been used. The current study is a descriptive - analytical type and of field branch. The results indicate that the uses in the old texture of Kerman in the status quo in terms of compatibility, the system of distribution and proximity pattern, is not so compatible with the urban planning criteria and such issue has affected on the quality of urban life in the area. The most compatibility can be observed in the residential uses, so that 89% of residential uses are placed at fully compatible and relatively compatible with their neighborhoods. Also disorder and randomness of uses distribution can easily and much be seen in the old texture of Kerman city.

Population growth and urbanization has caused the decrease of the citizen's life quality and access to urban sustainability is difficult. Quality Study of life in urban areas is one that has been widely addressed in recent years. The present study has been written aimed to analyze the quality of urban life and its relationship with citizen participation in municipal affairs. The present study is an applied and descriptive – analytical and correlational methods. Data were collected by two methods of field and documentary and using questionnaires. The population society consisted of all residents of the Nagadeh town in spring 2014, which by using Cochran formula 380 people selected as the sample size and have been studied by simple random sampling method. In analyzing the data,statistical methods such as T-test, multiple regression and path analysis model were used. Cronbach's alpha reliability and structural validity was assessed by factor analysis. Based on the analysis performed with the T-test, single sample, are Indicators of mental health and the quality of the urban environment in the average level of quality and Economic health Dimensions, social health, physical health, the environment are at a level lower than average. Using path analysis shows that the coefficient of determination of 0.992 variability determined by the research analytical model of the quality of the urban environment with coefficient 0.323 and, physical health with coefficient 0.276 were the most effective citizen's participation in urban affairs. Accordingly, it can be concluded that in the quality of life and urban environment, social dimensions, physical, cultural, and environmental quality of urban environment, have direct and indirect impact on the citizen participation in the urban affairs and between there is a positive and significant relationship between them.