نشریه سیاست های راهبردی و کلان
پیاپی 1 (بهار 1392)

In the general policies of the third and forth development plans, the work, job conscience, economic efficiency and reducing unemployment are among the priorities of economic activities in the country. The main issue of this study is that the provinces should show better social and economic conditions in the period of third and forth developing plan if they have better situation in the decent work indicators. In this regard, the relative efficiency of provinces and sensitivity analysis of data, were evaluated with using Data Envelopment Analysis Model, five indicators of decent work and four indicators for social and economic conditions in the provinces. The method of this study was descriptive- analytical method and it has been done with using all provinces among 2000- 2007. The findings put the West Azerbaijan and Tehran in the third plan, also Tehran and Golestan in the early years of fourth plan, in the top region of efficient provinces. The increasing of efficiency differences in both plans is a sign of imbalance in focusing on social and economical indicators of decent work. However, in overall the numbers of efficient provinces were increased. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis showed that the" imperfect employment" and the "members of relief committee" indicators are the most sensitive and the "social coverage" indicators are the most important indicators among all of them. With using findings, focusing on efficient- based approach (inputs and outputs) for policy and monitoring the provinces are suggested.

The first step in the fight against poverty and exclusion, is awareness of the situation of poverty. In considering this issue In the present study, Using household income and expenditure statistics studied for measuring poverty in rural and urban areas of iran during 2009-1989. To achieve this purpose, after the introduction of the definition of poverty and its and review of previous studies, Issues of poverty measurement and calculation of poverty and also it is presented the introduces of methods used in this study is presented. To obtain the absolute poverty line, food poverty line approach based on minimum basic needs are calculated and added to the minimum non-food requirements. The results indicate that: In the period under review, poverty eradication programs, poverty reduction in urban areas than in rural areas were more successful, The absolute poverty lines in urban areas has been more than in rural areas has been, Absolute Poverty rate and poverty gap in rural areas has been more than in urban areas, Indicator of absolute poverty in urban areas since 1385 and in rural areas since 1384 has been rising.

Nowadays, sustainable agricultural development is one of the basic needs. For achieving to this aim, sufficient attention should be paid to this concept on the country five-year plans as an upstream document and development navigation. This paper has evaluated Five-year plans After the Islamic Revolution from the viewpoints of its attention and emphasis on sustainable agricultural development dimensions and indices. Required data are collected through document study. Collected data has been analyzes based on content analysis through VIKOR method and Atlas.ti software. The result showed that although, there has been some attention to sustainable agricultural development in all of the Five-year plans after the Islamic Revolution, but the more emphasis has been paid to sustainable agricultural development concept on the fifth development plan. Although the attention has been gradually paid to concept of sustainable development in all of the planning process, but, there has not been equal emphasis on all dimensions of sustainable agricultural development.

This paper examines the factors that affect private savings in Iran using Johansen and Juselius co-integration and vector error correction model. This paper the effect of variables such as real exchange rate, borrowing constraints, GDP, interest rate, inflation and fluctuation caused by War and Oil Revenues are examined. We use Banking profit rate instead of interest rates due to lack of data related to variable interest rates. And instead of borrowing constraints we use ratio of the banking system credits granted to the private sector to GDP, and private sector Liquidity to GDP. The result show that, impact of GDP, interest rate and Shocks from oil revenues in 1974 have positive effect on Private savings. Also, effect of real exchange rate, inflation and fluctuation caused by Iran-Iraq War have negative effect on Private savings. On the other, effect of borrowing constraints on private saving is ambiguous. Vector error correction coefficient is negative and equal -0.9 and mean that if a shock affects private savings, in a short run time 90% of this variance is corrected and again reach the equilibrium.

One of the sectors that have a role in job creation and the direct and indirect impact on other sectors is the industrial sector. So in this paper, the effects of the exchange rate as instruments of economic importance sector employment over the period 1338-1390 have been analyze. In the first part of the study, the structural break test unit root test Dicky Fuller Peron, the vector error correction model is used to estimate when results indicated that in short-run and long-run the exchange rate shock volume has been inverse effect on employment. Then the second section, anticipated employment trends using model of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). It was found that employment in industry will be increased in future. Therefore planning in this relation can be of high importance.

Foreign policy is Include the identification and implementation a series of national goals and interests that is done by governments in the international scene. Although is different the clear goals and realistic foreign policy, from one country to another. But, all countries are following goals: Short-term goals, medium-term goals and long term goals. Hence, this paper attempts to will be evaluated realization of Iran’s foreign policy objectives in the fourth Development Plan. To achieve this, the First, Extracted the indicators of Perspective document and the forth plan and according to has been discussed qualitatively analyzed Iran's foreign policy. Results and findings suggest that Iran's Foreign Policy and Diplomacy has been poor towards Trust neighboring countries. And in some cases have even gone to the neighboring countries and Islamic countries have had suspicions about Iran's policies. Despite the heavy emphasis on principles 28 and 30 of the Fourth plan in Strengthen Iran relations with Islamic countries but have not virtually no place in the Arab and Islamic countries. Iran's position is far worse in Europe, America, Africa and the Far East. This place is suffering even in Latin America. Meanwhile, challenges in two issues the Iranian nuclear and human rights serious relations with regional and international organizations, and NGO's international.