پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 23 (زمستان 1385)

In order to investigate the contribution of gasoline price change on Iran's economy, in this study, by using panel data and estimating an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model for the period of 1996 -2003, weve tried to calculate changes on household's welfare in different income levels, which are arisen from a 30 percent increase in gasoline price. Equivalent Variation (EV) and Compensative Variation (CV) are two applied criteria for this purpose. In addition to direct effects, it has been tried to calculate the indirect contribution of this change on household's welfare. The results indicate that the relative loss of welfare is more for the lower income levels than for the higher.

Existing literature on the role of oil price fluctuations has mainly focused on the importer countries and few attempts have been done to analyze the impact of the variability on the oil revenues from the oil producing countrie's point of view. So in this study, the role of oil price shocks in shaping the fluctuations in Iran's economy by using the seasonal data from 1971– 2003 have analyzed. To this end, at first we should recognize the business cycles in Iran's economy, then by using selective statistical indicators, cyclical behavior of effective key variables on business cycles is computed and analyzed. At the second step, a business cycle model using Vector Auto regression (VAR) is specified and the effects of oil price shocks are analyzed. The results of the research have shown that economy of Iran has experienced seven business cycles and oil factor among other effective factors has played an important role on causing booms and recessions. The result of estimation on VAR model and evaluating the impact of several shocks on production fluctuations indicates that oil price shocks have a long run impact on business cycles in Iran's economy and this effect decreases slowly during the time. In addition, this shocks account for %25 of the production fluctuations. While the instability share of other variables of the model on the production are worthless.

This study examines the effect of fiscal policies on economic growth in Iran, applying ARDL1 and VDCF2 methods, for the period of 1959-2003. The results showed that government’s constructive expenditures and taxes affect economic growth significantly,and their effects are positive and negative, respectively. This is the case that government’s consumption expenditures does not have a significant role in explaining the production’s changes. So it can be concluded that in Iran’s economy, it is better to lower the ratio of government’s consumption expenditures to its constructive expenditures, for the former causes more growth in price levels than production.

In this paper, budget deficit, trade balance deficit, inflation rate, fluctuations of exchange rate and terms of trade variables are determined as a base of macroeconomic instability, using moving average method with five-year stable trends estimated for all the considered variables. Macroeconomic instability is defined as deviation from stable trends, and finally, we will study the effects of instability variables on private sector investment in Iran.

Underground Economy is a series of value added activities which is not defined in the frame of formal economic. Private activities, private organizations and those kinds of market activities which, in some way, are not discovered by officials, totally, are making black or informal economic. Underground economy includes four sections: family, informal, irregular and illegal. The nature of unclearness of black economic, make it hard to estimate and study the economy, because of these, most of current measuring methods are indirect measuring of thise activities which are accompanied by limited assumptions. Through this research, in spite of considering different methods of measuring black economy, we estimate the amount of underground economy, using "currency ratio" and "Gap between expenditure and income of family". The gap between expenditure and income of family method is based on discrepancies between expenditure and income of families which is not reported in the national accounts. In "currency ratio" method we measuring the size of underground economy based on exchange of currency.

In this article, the degree of openness through econometrics tests and by the use of Dowrick's tests and model will be investigated. The purpose of this paper is to study the degree of openness and its relation with the economic growth in some selected developing countries. For this purpose, a Panel Data Econometrics methodology is employed in which is included with least square dummy variable's (LSDV) and weighted least square's estimates. The results of Panel indicate that the effect of degree of trade openness in economic growth is positive. The initial model from the crosssection results for 74 developing and developed countries also indicate a positive relation between the degree of trade openness and economic growth for the period of 1960-1990. In this regression, the growth of per capita gross national product is regressed on the degree of trade openness, rates of investment and the initial real per capita GNP of the year of 1960.

This study analyzes the relevance of the vehicle industry in Iran's Economy with emphasis on the production. In this study, applying Jensen and West (1986) and West (1993) methodologies based on Iran's 1379 Input –Output table, the overall results show that the direct and indirect contribution of the value added of vehicle industry in entire economy is 2.4 percent.

Lending is one of the main services of the banks. It is notable that the process of funding money and lending it to the customers has a cost of capital, so, the lending condition should be economical for both bank and customers. Hence, in this article we’re going to provide a model of banking loans loan portfolio which is designed as a soft-ware application that supported by Data Mining Technology and mathematical models. This model could provide optimum combination of bank’s loan portfolio and contribute as a decision support system for bank credit management.

Maximizing shareholder’s wealth is the goal of a business enterprise. Today economic value added (EVA) is known as the best performance evaluative measure which is a measure for shareholder’s wealth increase. This measure has the greatest influence on the external measure of performance market value added (MVA). This research investigates the relation between these two measures in Tehran’s stock exchange in medium size from 1996 to 2003. 70 companies are selected from 13 different industries as investigation samples. The results show that the most correlation is between the standardized MVA and standardized EVA. This research shows that %61 of changes in standardized MVA can be explained by changes in standardized EVA. But the explanatory power of the criteria of ROE, ROI and EPS growth is %45, %43 and %6 respectively. Hence EVA is the best measure for evaluating the internal performance and has the most correlation with the market values.

In recent years, the rapid economic growth of newly industrialized countries has amazed every body, since during a short period of time, they had experienced extensive economic growth rate. Different economist explained and justified this phenomenon in different ways, the importance of this issue can be considered as a main stimulation which motivated us to investigate the comparative advantage of various economic sections of these countries and compare them with Iran in order to answer the following questions. 1. Do newly industrialized countries have worked based on comparative advantage? 2. does the comparative advantage in industrial section can be considered as a cause which brings the rapid growth in such countries? 3. How is Iran's situation in this matter? In order to answer to above mentioned questions, we have tried to compare the comparative advantage index in main industrial, agricultural and service sections, in these countries during 1984-2000. We have used pooling data in estimating the rate of economic growth. So these countries on comparative advantage of various sections, as a result we can say that, industry and creation of comparative advantage in this section is the most influential factors which cause such an increasing growth in newly industrialized countries. In Iran, we can say that it has not changed its advantage in the same way, but it has focused on agricultural section, which on the basis of research finding, it has a negative effect on economic growth.