پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 25 (تابستان 1386)

In spite of the previous literature of demand for money in Iran, which is based on macroeconomic framework, this paper takes a microeconomic approach and investigates the incomes and price – using cost - elasticities of the demand for monetary assets based on a nonlinear demand system. The data covers from 1989 to 2005. The model is specified as a dynamic system to take account of institutional constraints and the dynamic nature of the assets markets. The conclusion is that user cost elasticities of the monetary assets with longer maturities is significantly greater than those of shorter periods. The interesting finding, however, coming from a sensitivity analysis implies that the interest elasticities of the demand for monetary assets are almost zero. In addition, it seems that fluctuations in the elasticities may be directly come from real sector’s fluctuations, as happened in 1995 and 1997. Due to the fact that the estimated elasticities depends poorly on the interest rates, it seems that some appropriate noninterest rate based policies such as controlling inflation organizing and structuring financial markets may significantly alter the using cost, which in turn may result change the demand for monetary assets as well.

The main motive to this research is to introduce an appropriate model best tailored for the national customs management based on the world's customs organizations management system.To come up with the above target, close to all the evolutions in the customs administrations around the world such as Globalization, Upsurge in Competitiveness, Improvements in Information & Telecommunication Technology and its impact on the functionality of the customs administrations is analyzed whilst by taking on a comparative study of the customs management systems in a host of customs administrations the main and effectual factors to the customs management system is extrapolated. The Customs Management Excellence Cycle Model (CMECM) is driven based on the researcher's scientific literature, his past research experiences, the Customs Excellence Cycle, and ultimately the Questionnaires designed and shared with both national and overseas elites. The CMECM developed per se for Customs Management in 21'th century has its main pillars over 8 criterion and 53 indicators. The model and its proposed factors were evaluated by the elites and with the aid of the "Descriptive-Surveillance" method in the field and resolutely endorsed consensually.- Having in disposal the Customs Management Excellence CycleModel (CMECM) we would be able to benchmark the Customs functionaloffices both domestically and internationally and specify the rankings and nominate the superior offices in a row.- In general, Customs Management Excellence Cycle (CMECM) can be used for alleviating and ultimately uprooting the points of susceptibilitywithin domestic Customs offices.- Customs Management Excellence Cycle (CMECM) can be used in order to assess the function of each customs office in a different time span.

In recent centuries, many surveys have been done about money demand function and the variables which affect it, in developed and developing countries. As far as knowing this function accurately, it helps economic planners to adopt suitable monetary and fiscal policies, in order to achieve economic ends. Besides the known variables which estimate the money demand function, Gini coefficient variable can be used as income distribution variable in this function. In this article, the effect of Gini coefficient on money demand has been studied and evaluated. Also autoregressive distributed lag method (ARDL) and the annual data of 1999-2004 have been used. The results show that real money balance according to limited and wide money definition is cointegration with gross domestic product, rate of inflation and foreign exchange rate. And sign of Gini coefficient theoretically is not correct. To study short-run analysis of long-run equilibrium the error correction model was used, and the error correction term coefficient shows that, moving towards long-run equilibrium is slow in money market. The stability tests results show the stability of money demand function coefficients. In other words we can accept that money demand function is stable in Iran.

In recent decade one of the most important phenomenon is globalization through convergence of global market. This phenomenon, like every other new phenomenon, primarily expanded in industrial world and gradually extended to other countries. Because of having exclusive advantages and disadvantages, it may provide specific threats and opportunities for countries of the world. While in the past, Iran, didnt strive seriously about this topic, but, today because of existing opportunities and convergence with global economy, requires planning and serious stimulation in this field. This article is organized for answering this need and it attempts with exploration of effective factors on internal competitiveness of manufacturing industries in Isfahan during 1997-2002 to provide appropriate policy recommendations to reinforce the competitiveness of industries in Isfahan and the whole country. As the whole, findings of this study shows that using the skillful workers, product efficiency, productivity, transportation costs, investment in machineries and participation in private sectors, have significant effect on competitiveness of industries.

In this paper the efficiency of ten banks (Mellat, Tejarat, Refahe Kargaran, Saderat, Melli, Sepah, Tose Saderat, Maskan, Keshavarzi and Sanat va Madan) in Iran and the effective factors on their efficiency levels are estimated, using parametric statistical method, for 1994-2003 period. The estimation of efficiency is conducted by using Battese and Colli model (1992) - Model(1) - while for the estimation of the effective factors on efficiency, Battese and Colli model (1995)-Model (2)- is taken. Regarding the results obtained from the former model, the efficiency of the banks is estimated to be 87.76 percent. Also, for the case of the factors influential on the bank's efficiency, the results of the latter model showed that there is a positive relation between efficiency and sophistication of banks, the number of branches of the banks, and the time trend; meanwhile it has negative relation with the size of the banks.

Performance assessment in decision making process and paying attention to the development and increasing importance of capital market is one of the most important subjects in financial management. Economic market added value is one of major criterias for assessment management well doing. So it is a necessity to test financial measures to assess companies economic performance, i. e ROI, RI, ROS, EVA and MVA. In this article, we present, the results of our research based on active industries accepted in Exchange Market for the time period 1999-2001.

The main objective of this research is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on the Iran's macroeconomic variables, especially the real output and domestic price level during 1961-2002. For this purpose, the fluctuations of the exchange rate are decomposed into two parts, anticipated and unanticipated components by using Hodrick Prescott filter. The empirical methodology is based on regression model and VAR method. The main findings of this research indicate that the exchange rate fluctuations have a non-symmetric impact on the real output and the domestic price level in Iran. It means that the impact of anticipated and unanticipated shocks on the real output are different from each other; the anticipated shocks of the exchange rate has more impact on the domestic output in comparison with the unanticipated ones. In addition, the negative shocks (unanticipated change in the exchange rate) have more effects on the real output than the positive shocks. In other words, the unanticipated currency appreciation (a negative shock) has influenced the real output more than the unanticipated currency depreciation. Similarly, the impact of the foreign exchange rate shocks on the domestic price level is non-symmetric. It means that the unanticipated exchange rate shocks have more effect on the price than the anticipated ones. Moreover, the absolute effect of the positive shocks (depreciation) on the price level is more pronounced than that of the negative ones. In other words, the absolute impact of the national currency depreciation on the price is higher than that of the appreciation.

This study is an attempt to investigate the reciprocal effects of economic growth and financial structure on one hand, and economic growth and ownership structure of companies on the other. The study aim is to identify and clarify the implications of the aforementioned relationships in order to utilize the results in decision making policies and in implementing laws constraining financial as well as ownership structures of companies in the process of development. The analysis of the percentage of debt and capital variations with the assumption of compound growth revealed that by financing through increasing debt, companies failed to have an impact on economic growth. This finding is an indication of the significance of financing through increasing the capital and its role on the process of development. No significant result has been found between economic growth and other structural variables. Meanwhile, by utilizing the second and third assumptions to determine structural indices, no significant causal relationship has been found between economic growth and structural variables.

Different methods for prediction of future situation always have been one of the important concerns of scholars of different science. Naturally in this way; those methods would be more sustainable and applicable which have minimum errors in prediction. During last years, many mathematical methods like: simple average, weighted average, double average and regression have been accepted and applied, but in some situations it had some problems as well. With the application of artificial intelligence like neural networks, specifically when there is proper relation between data, dependent and independent variables, a lot of hope raised and in a way that the replacement of neural networks models with mathematical methods. In this paper, the application of neural networks models and regressions in the prediction of stock prices have been evaluated and the prediction errors of these models have been measured. The research method which has been used in this paper, is evaluation method.

The study of the relationship between stock return and accounting earning is so critical for studying of the efficiency of capital market as well as for evaluating the usefulness of information on financial statements. Accounting earning is one of the most important items of the financial statements used by stakeholders as a basis for making decisions and predictions. By using six different models, this study attempted to investigate the relationship between the return and accounting earning. The results of this relationship, then, were compared with the cash flow model which studies the relationship between stock return and cash flow. Despite other studies, this study tried to evaluate the explanatory power of each of the proposed models in the long run. The researcher wanted to find an answer to the research question: "Which one of the variables of earning or cash flow is more powerful in explaining the long run return?" Moreover, the other important question was to discover: "Which model is more suitable for investigating the relationship between the variables mentioned in basic financial statements and stock return?" The results showed that in all models the correlation coefficient increased as the measurement interval was lengthened. However, there was not a significant difference among the correlation coefficients obtained from the different models. Accounting earning was the only variable which in all levels and in all models had a meaningful correlation with return. Furthermore, the results showed that there was a meaningful relation between the stock return and cash obtained from operational activities in a long interval. However, the explanatory power of earning models in the long run was more than the cash model.

This paper develops an equity valuation model that relates growth in expected earnings to firm value. The modelling, in addition to growth, also incorporates nonrecurring items as an adjustment for earnings. The analysis shows that the valuation function consists of three terms: (i) "Permanent earnings model" (i.e., capitalized earnings) adjusted for non-recurring items, (ii) Current non-recurring items and, (iii) a "Multiplier" that mirrors both short-term growth and long-term growth, which multiplies next period expected earnings. This modelling implies that the accounting is conservative, indicating that growth and conservative accounting are two sides of the same coin. The paper also shows that like dividends, non-recurring items are irrelevant for the purposes of forecasting and valuation, except via their impact on book value. Permanent earnings, expected earnings, expected abnormal earnings, short-term growth, longterm growth, cost of capital and expected dividend had selected to the variable of this research. All of the hypothesis are tested by Wilcox on signed rank test. The result of this research indicates that all of the three models between calculative firm value and market firm value are found to lack significance deference.