پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 35 (زمستان 1388)

Many of economists believe that financial and monetary development and economic stability are necessary conditions in order to access to high rate of economic growth. Regarding the high importance of economic growth for developing countries, we investigate financial and monetary development, economic stability and their impact on economic growth. The objective of this paper is to estimate an econometric model for analyzing the impact of financial and monetary development and public expenditure on Iran’s national income. Selection of the variables is consistent with economic growth and the views of monetarist and Keynesian on the relative impact of monetary and fiscal policies. After determining the time series characteristics of the data set a vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. The empirical results indicate no support for "supply leading" view of financial development and Mackinnon-Shaw repressionist proposition in Iran. Also there is not any noticeable support for the monetary and fiscal policies effectiveness.

This study is investigating the extent of using and effectiveness of sophisticated techniques and risk and inflation analyzing in evaluation of long term projects in Tehran Stock Exchange in 2006. To collect data for this research we designed a reliable and valid questionnaire. The result indicate that the managers of the companies in Tehran Stock Exchange are using the following techniques: net present value, profitability index, internal rate of return, and accounting rate of return in order to evaluate the long term projects. Also the results showed that in view of the above managers techniques based on inflation such as the method based on real value of cash flow have the most effectiveness in decision making for investment. Other results showed that the most important obstacles of using sophisticated capital budgeting techniques are not employing scientific and practical word force; and insufficient indexes and variants in the country to implement required calculations.

This study reviews a century of structural transformation in distribution views from functional income distribution (between suppliers of inputs) to personal income distribution (between individuals and households). In this transformation some factors have facilitated the process and some factor have preventive role. Welfare governments needs, defects of functional distribution theory, improvement of hardware and software instruments in income and expenditure analysis, growth and inequality theory of Kuznets, individual choice theory of Friedman, human capital theory of Becker and justly distribution of Rawls are positive factors in this evolution and position of functional income distribution in neoclassical notion and Cambridge school and some ambiguity in how a fair distribution play a negative role in this circulation. Transformation of distributional theories in the ground of macroeconomic and microeconomic theories, is a important section of economic science improvement in the past century.

In this paper, by using the computable general equilibrium model, the effect of tariff cuts importing goods on the employment level and income distribution based on different scenarios of tariff cuts through GAMS software have been simulated. The results show that general tariff cuts raise the employment level of unskilled labor workers and improve income distribution in rural households. Moreover, tariff cuts in foods, apparel and textile sector increase the employment level of unskilled labor workers and improve income distribution in rural households. In addition tariff cuts in agriculture sector reduce the employment level of unskilled labor workers and improve income distribution in urban households.

After forty years period of implementing of households income and expenditure survey in Iran, the results show that in all years the mean of household income is less than their expenditures. While it can be resonable for some years because of economic problems but it's continious in such a long period show that this difference is not due to economic depression and may be a reflecting of under coverage or under statement of households income in the survey. In this study, analysing of the results of income and expenditure survey in period 1997-2001 show that this problem is not limited to a special group of household. Therefore, solve that problem the related questions in income section of household income and expenditure survey questionair should be design in a way that can present better coverage of household income.

Efficiency, optimal allocation of sources depends on competitive performance of markets. To establish competitive markets, maintain and increase efficiency, it is necessary to exist different issues including complete definition of legal ownership, reduction of conventional and exchange costs, facilitating the flow of information among producers and consumers in the markets and also existence of facilitator rules concerning competition and anti-monopoly. In this research, we have collected the statistics of big industrial working places in 2007 and computed the concentration and monopoly indexes for 130 industries by using Hrefindhal – Hirshman and share of better firms indexes. In addition, we have evaluated the role of private and public companies in increasing and reducing the monopoly, and the effective factors in creating & sustaining of monopolies. Results from the research indicates the considerable concentration in Iran’s including in public & private sectors. The most important reason to establish monopolies in the country, either in public or private sectors, is creating input obstacles through laws and regulations.

Considerable attention in the extant literature has been devoted to new firm formation and growth of existing firms as the sources of job creation. However, most of the recent studies show that among the growing firm a small minority are ability to show high growth. Although this minority is created the vast majority of new jobs, there is a dearth of research on high growth firms. Furthermore, the majority of literature in this area focuses on large firms while research on high growth small firms is underdeveloped. This paper investigates the characteristics of high growth small firms in manufacturing industry in Iran during the Third Development Plan. Using a recent population of 7379 small firms (those with 10 to 50 employees), absolute and relative methods and Probit regression model, a number of drivers of high growth were identified and investigated. The results of this study indicate that high growth small firms are influenced by size in non-linear fashion. In addition, age of firm, profitability, skill of employees, transportation and advertising expenditure, as well as net entry rate are the main characteristics of high growth small firms in manufacturing industry in Iran during the Third Development Plan.

The purpose of this article is to survey the levels of industrial and regional development and the situation of distribution of industrial, cultural, hygienic and healthy facilities among the cities of the provinces of Razavi Khorasan, Southern Khorasan and northern Khorasan. In order to this, after selection suitable indicators of development, a few statistical methods and multiple branch decision making techniques such as: multiple attribute decision making (MADM), simple additive weighting (SWA) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) as well as classical and non-classical taxonomies have been used for industrial and regional development ranking in the year of 2006. Obtained results show that there was a huge difference among the cities from the point of view of industrial and regional development in the year under study. Moreover, a positive and significant relation was found between industrial development and regional one in the provinces. Though, the recorded relation is weaker than that of national level.

In this paper in order to evaluate the necessity of increasing job skills in ICT and also recognition of new job skills regarding changes of the structure of market labor after digital revolution, scientific change technology/ market labor change and indicators of ICT in Iran and other countries are analyzed. Results show that besides the possible of more effective investment made priory in ICT sector, it is also possible to provide an appropriate back ground for developing ICT infrastructure in economy, and creating new job for youth and graduates and also creating labor force productivity.

Survey the economic aspects of diffusion green house gases and their environmental effects are very important, especially with respect to the increasing diffusion of these gases. In this paper, we evaluated relationship between diffusion of carbon dioxide gas and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita during period of 1353 to 1384(1972-2005), then formatted Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) for IRAN. We used quadratic regression model that estimated by OLS. Results show that there is a defective form of EKC in Iran. with respect to the higher growth rate of spreading carbon dioxide to growth rate of GDP per capita, Iran economy is in the upward part of EKC. In the other words iran's economic and social status and conditions of economic growth did not let to decrease environmental pollutants through economic growth.

Wheat, as one of the worldwide fundamental agricultural products is an efficient weapon in political and global relations. The strategic importance of wheat is increasing every day. In this study the price of this product will be forecasted during 2009-2011 period taking into account the vital mission of supply of food security and self sufficiency in production of fundamental agricultural products such as wheat in National Document of Agriculture Section Development in Fourth Plan and undeniable role of price in this regard, underlying and selecting an appropriate model. To do this the forecasting performance of structural and time series models will be evaluated and compared according to the common criteria. The data used in this research include annual farm and guaranteed prices of wheat and rice and the wheat stock at the end of years during 1966-2008 period extracted from reports of Ministry of Agricultural and Central Bank. The research results show the preference of time series models (Unit root and ARIMA) for forecasting of wheat price.

In the new literature of international trade, the focus has been on discussion of how trade integration affects business cycle synchronization. The objective of this paper is exploring the main determinants of business cycle synchronization whit emphasizing on the trade integration which have been evaluated through econometric model over period 1990- 2005. The empirical results show that trade integration is significantly the major factor of business cycle synchronization in these countries particularly during 1990-2005. In addition, similarities in both fiscal and monetary policies as well as similarities in economics structures influence significantly business cycle synchronization in the region.