پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 37 (تابستان 1389)

According to the recent debates on portfolio allocation of the foreign reserves of central banks and moving from Dollar to Euro, this study is going to empirically investigate the portfolio composition of the central banks of Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Since the compositions of the foreign reserves of central banks are not announced precisely, the estimation of the share of Euro in foreign reserves is done according to the time series characteristics of foreign reserves. In this study the share of Euro and Dollar in Foreign reserves of the central banks will be estimated using Kalman Filter. In the euro period, 1999-2008, the share of Euro in foreign reserves of Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey has increased considerably. The evidence shows that all of these countries have diversified their foreign reserves portfolio such that the relative importance of Euro has increased while the relative importance of Dollar has diminished. The share of Euro in the foreign reserves of Iran, Russia and Turkey from 2003 and in Saudi Arabia from 2007 has increased and Euro has become a serious challenger to US dollar. Although the results of the paper show that the share of Euro in the foreign reserves of these countries has increased and Euro has become a serious rival for US dollar, but the answer to the question of whether the Euro will replace the Dollar, is still an important issue and requires further study and empirical evidences.

In this paper, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis, and quarterly series of statistics in the behavior of Iran's trade-balance against its main Trade partners have been dynamically analyzed and real effective exchange rate (REER) has been calculated as an important index and a determinant in the country's trade-balance fluctuations. The results indicate a long-run equilibrium among variables of the aggregate trade-balance pattern.The dynamic effects among variables, based on impulse-response functions (IRFs) were analyzed as a result, the effect of devaluation on aggregate trade-balance in short-run confirms J-curve hypothesis. The decline trend for J-curve in the research has been estimated for two quarters of which nominal rigidity of import values in the international trade-balance, i.e, dependency of domestic sector on imports and inelastic real exchange rate on non-oil export sector are of its crucial reasons.

Reducing dependency on oil export and increasing non-oil export was one of the most important aims of the 3rd-5 year development plan. The aim was to increase the share of non-oil export from 18% in (3rd D.P) to 33.6% in the 4th-5 year dev. Plan. Hence the in order to recognize trade target markets through the trade potentiality analysis between Iran and selected countries such as: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, Russia, Turkmenistan, Jeorgia and Kazakhistan, we use the comparative export and import vector methods in 2008. The result shows that Iran’s export to the selected countries except Turkey was more than export potentiality of these countries. So, there is no more opportunity for RTAs with these countries for export. But Iran imports from these selected countries were less than import potentiality. Thus we conclude that (RTAs) can be used only for the import potentialities rather than non-oil export.

Some economists believe that Economies with the higher degree of economic freedom have a better performance than that of planned economies. This group has ranked countries by various indexes of economic freedom to show how to have access to the world resources. In the literature, there is an emphasize on the relationship between economic freedom and transaction cost. This reveals the fact that economic freedom followed by free competition, property rights and voluntarily exchanges can decrease transaction cost in the markets, through the reduction in limits.The goal of this paper is to construct a theoretical framework to discuss the effect of economic freedom on transaction cost. Then, it uses data OECD high income members over 1995-2004. The empirical results indicate that the selected countries are not only affected by economic freedom by indexes transaction cost consist: (voice and accountability, government effectiveness, control of corruption, regulatory construction and corruption index) while the effect is U shape and convex, that is, an increase in economic freedom results in a decrease in transaction cost but in the process of economic increasing freedom transaction cost rises.

This paper presents a test of the P* model using Iran quarterly data over the period 1988-2005. The basic formulation of the P* model, which is derived from the quantity theory of money, is manipulated to obtain an equation for the price gap and level of output and velocity gaps. So the P-Star model implies that inflation is determined by the level of output gap and velocity gap. On the other hand real money gap can either be used instead of price gap, as the other approach. Estimation of the dynamic relation between the inflation rate and price gap are significant and price gap’s share is about 50 percent in inflation process.

According to the definition, efficiency is the ratio of outputs of an organization to its inputs for which there are parametric and non-parametric ways of calculation. In non-parametric method which forms the base of calculations in this research, efficiency is evaluated through a series of mathematical optimizations. In this research tax organization of each province is considered as a decision maker unit which posesses several inputs and outputs. In order to compare the efficiency of different provinces of the country, they are divided into two groups on the basis of their stages of development and their shares in total tax payments. Efficiency of tax organizations of provinces is measured by using Data Envelopment Analysis procedure (DEA), and the results show that in a period of2005-2006, there has been an Average efficiency of 73% for developed provinces and 89.5 % for less developed provinces. Regarding the figures related to the efficiency of provinces, we consider the difference between efficiency of provinces and efficiency of 100%, as their shortcoming in tax capacity achievement. In other words, efficiency of provinces shows that they are from legal potential capacity of tax collection. So, legal tax potential of provinces are calculated on the basis of above mentioned figures.

Distribution of income is of vital significance because, It represents not only a significant aspect of justice; but, it also influences economic, social and other variables. Therefore, it is important for the economic and politic decision makers to identify and assess the effects of income redistribution policies, as it the useful in planning. Hence, in this paper, using semi-input-output model, we try to examine the effects of income redistribution for low-income groups, on the Iranian macroeconomic variables. In other words, this paper aims to find out whether or not the income redistribution results in Iranian economic growth. Similarly semi-input-output table of the Iranian statistics centre in 2001 has been used in 10 parts, assuming mixed technology. In this paper, it is revealed that increasing economic growth policies and income distribution improvement policies are not contradictory.

This paper, is trying to analyse the institutional barriers of economic growth in IRAN (1959-2000). For this purpose, we have estimated a growth model with TSLS and Gregory – Hansen (1996) cointegration techniques. The results showed that, institutional qualities have positive and significant effects on economic growth. In other words, institutions play an important role in the process of economic growth in Iranian economy.

So far as the economic indices are concerned the results of becoming global in some countries show a situation in which the dread of globalization on one hand and the opportunities it may bring about on the other have left the developing countries in a state of ambiguity.In this paper, we explain the effect of globalization on economic growth. For this purpose we choose some developing countries in two groups: more global and less global.We use a panel data model (1980 -2006) with variables that influence the growth. The results demonstrate the role of variables which are determinant in globalization process such as: Economic Security, economy openness and FDI.

This article has tried to calculate factors affecting the productivity of production in Carbon company of Iran. It has also tried to find out procedures for enhancing the productivity in this unit. The method used for this purpose is based on calculating the productivity of factors of production through parametric methods for the period of 1999-2009. in order to measure the actual productivity in this company the monthly production function data including explanatory variables such as: simple labor force, specialized labor force, as well as existing capital and energy, (to remove no stationary of data), estimation of date based on production function have been used. The results show that, despite fluctuations, the productivity of specialized and non-specialized labor as well as energy have increased at a speedy rate of growth. However, in spite of increasing the existing capital productivity the over all productivity was diminishing dramatically, due to over use of machinery capacities.

House price changes in Iran is a category for thinking about in recent years and also different studies has been done on determinants of housing supply and demand and its price. However, this study deals with causality relation between house price and its determinant factors by seasonal data in Tehran between “1994-2006".In this study, Vector Error Correction, is used to estimate the model. Moreover, Wald test is utilized for the study of causality relation in long-run and short-run. The results show that all of the model variables can be significantly determinant of house price.In short-run, land price, the wholesale of building materials, and gold price (as substitution market) have a bilateral causality relation with house price. Forthermore, there exists a unilateral causality among the average of household income and private sector investment in house building, as complete buildings, with housing price. Nevertheless, in the short-run Granger causality between house price and interest rate was not confirmed. On the other hand, the high significance of the coeffeceint of partial error correction in all of the estimated equations as well as integrated tests with model dependent variables reveals existence of a long-run relation.

Red meat and chicken meat are of crucial importance in Irans’ house holds food baskets. An increase in the price of red meat has an increasing direct effect on chicken meat. Meat market is very fluctuating but due to liberalization and the elimination of government intervention the market is usually balanced. In this paper the structure of price changes and the relation between whole sale and retail sale prices have been investigated and analyzed by using ARDL & ECM modeling. The results show that the elasticity of this reaction is about 1-15. One may conclude that the main reason for price changes is the price changes in the whole sale market, which is to be considered as of a great importance by policy makers to have a balanced market.

Sugar is one of the main processed agricultural products whose consumption is increasing in the world. Currently a considerable share of total production and consumption belongs to rich countries such as EU members and U.S. These countries try to control the world market by using some support policies such as: export’s subsidy, low rate loans and high import tariffs. In this study the economic indicators of sugar world market are reviewed and economic situation of sugar industry in Iran is considered as well.