پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 48 (بهار 1392)

The banking structure in Iran has undergone dramatic changes for the past three decades going from a mixed private-public banking system to a complete state-owned banking system. Although banking crisis such as bank panic and bank run has never been observed in Iran, the money market pressure index shows that the banking system has experienced crisis in various times. In this paper, we use the banking crisis data derived by Moshiri and Nadali (2010) to estimate the determinants of the banking crisis in Iran, using a Logit model for the period 1971-2008. The estimation results show that inflation, short term interest rate, and the ratio of domestic credit to private sector to GDP are the main factors affecting banking crisis in Iran. Moreover, the results indicate that the relationship between inflation rate and the banking crisis is U shape. The exchange rate does not have a significant effect on the banking crisis as the Iranian banking system is not heavily involved in the international financial markets and is not strongly connected to the international banking system.

This study is the result of an applied research which aim is describing a method for priority classification of factors affecting the use of electronic services by banks’ customers. As the environment is fuzzy, the hierarchical analysis process model (Fuzzy-AHP) has been proposed for the method.In this research the field study describing approach has been used and a sample of customers of Saman Bank with size of 50 has been analyzed by fuzzy-AHP to prioritize the effective factors.The studied factors are responsiveness, efficiency, fulfillment, reliability, privacy, perceived usefulness, ease of use, attitude, subjective norm and perceived behavioral control.The research results show that some factors such as perceived usefulness, fulfillment, ease of use, privacy, responsiveness, reliability, efficiency, attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, with respect to importance, have significant effect on the use of electronic services by bank’s customers.

“Institutions matter”. This is what we now see repeatedly in economic texts. But, some economists mentioned this truth more than a century ago. By asserting that mainstream economics has ignored institutions, these economists established a new paradigm, named institutional economics, which was, according to their manifesto, “the only way to the right sort of theory.” The crucial point, however, was that this new paradigm was introducing a critical element as the main unit of analysis that could well destroy all aspects of conventional economics. Now, more than one hundred years after the beginning of institutional economics, the science of economics has witnessed many valuable endeavors to imbed institutions in economic analysis. Although valuable, but these efforts has made the concept of institutions more complicated. Indeed, as mentioned by J. R. Commons, from the early stages of the evolution of institutionalism, this concept was tangled. However, after the emergence of New Institutional Economics, we can see more difficulties. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to the meaning and concept of institutions and its relation with individuals. Another issue that this paper is going to shed some light on it, is the role of institutions in economic occasions. Finally, the paper will concentrate on one important and neglected question, which was the main source of Veblen’s attack on orthodoxy, that is, why did mainstream economics ignore institutions?

Based on the debates on the impacts of globalization on government size, efficiency hypothesis and compensation hypothesis are two measure of globalization. The compensation hypothesis predicts that governments perform a risk-mitigating role against internationally generated risk and economic dislocations. Under efficiency hypothesis, governments compete to attract capital, and this competition will result in decreasing government presence in economy. In this paper we try to investigate the reason of government enlargement in Iran. We use trade openness (as globalization index), real income per capita, inflation, population, oil income and government size (based on government expenditure) and consumption expenditure in the form of percentage of GDP. An Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model) is developed for this study based on Bounds Testing (Pesaran, et.al, 2001). The result of this model shows that in the long run trade openness has no effect on government size but there is a significant relation between them in short run. Furthermore, the relation between globalization and social welfare and security shows that these expenditures didn’t compensate the effect of shock resulted from trade openness. In this way, the oil income has created a great income reserves for government which make government enlarge more.

This paper examines the impact of economic sanctions on bilateral trade between Iran and 30 trading partners over the period of 1970-2006. To accomplish this Purpose, a generalized gravity model is estimated using panel data estimation method in two situations: with and without sanction. The results show that sanctions have a small negative impact on bilateral trade. By imposing sanction on Iran by its trade partners, the bilateral trade reduces 0.089 percentage point. So, the negative effects of economic sanctions on Iran's trade with trading partners is negligible.

This study aims primarily at investigating the impact of macroeconomic instability on lending behavior of banking sector in Iran using data on commercial banks and macroeconomic instability from 1974 to 2009. Our results under the Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Modeling framework show that bank lending has a long-run relationship with macroeconomic instability. In other words, the long-term increase in macroeconomic instability indicators would be associated with reduction in commercial bank lending.In addition, an increase in the natural logarithm of assets of commercial banks (as a proxy of bank size), have a significant effect on the lending behavior of commercial banks. The results also show that although the ratio of deposits to capital and lending behavior of commercial banks are interacted with each other in the long run, but in the short term the error of balance does not adjust itself. Simply saying, although the ratio of deposits to capital has a long-run effect on the lending behavior of commercial banks but it is not affected by lending behavior of commercial banks. In fact, the variable of deposits to capital ratio is weak exogenous when compared with other variables.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the variables affecting the efficiency of tax collection and to calculate tax capacity of Golestan province. For this purpose, the coefficients of the regression model are estimated based on time series and cross section data of 28 provinces of Iran by using panel data method during 2000-2005. Our findings demonstrate that value added of industry and mine, housing and constructions, and service sections have positive and significant effect on tax collection in province level. But per capita income does not have significant effect. Average tax effort, actual average tax efficiency and potential average tax efficiency were respectively 0.88, 1.18 and 1.35 in the province of Golestan.