پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 51 (زمستان 1392)

Creating stable employment is one of the important objectives of any government. so, overall planning needs indicators that reflect the changes of the labour force status and the population. Labor force survey with rotation sampling is one of the sources that can be used to obtain these indicators. The labor Force Survey (LFS) is done by Statistical Centre of Iran, using a rotating sample that is implemented quarterly since 2005. In this paper, the method of computing labor force flow for LFS data of Iran is described and the resulting estimates for male and female labor force are proposed. Finally, these estimates for a period of 6 years are analyzed.

The phenomenon of “resource curse” or “paradox of plenty” is inconsistent with the general belief that natural resources always result in economic growth. The present study is focused on this question “why despite the fact that oil exporting developing countries benefit from the most major transfer of wealth without war, such countries suffer from economical failure”. To address the mentioned question, we have relied on a descriptive – analytic approach and employed the framework of institutionalism theory to study “shortsightedness” among decision makers and policymakers of such societies and finding consequences and damages of this trend and effective solutions for these problems. In order to study that how this phenomenon has been created and continues to persist, we have used “historical explanation” and “political economy”. In summary, according to causes specified by mentioned explanatory methods, the main factor was found in weakness of institutional structure. Considering Iran as the case study, this country experienced two shocks of income from petroleum industries in 1971 and 2011. By following the historical origins and considering the political economy of Iran, one can see that the finding of the present article is also true for Iran. In this regard and alongside with other amending solutions, adjustment of budgeting and taxation systems are proposed by the present study as solutions for achieving effective and productive utilization of incomes produced by petroleum industries for the purpose of long term development.

The correct estimation of gas oil demand function in agriculture industry and calculation of price and income elasticities is important to adopt the price and income policies. Therefore, in the present study the price and income elasticity of gas oil demand were estimated applying non-observable component to the process and creation of a state-space pattern and using maximum likelihood method and the Kalman Filter algorithm. In order to compare the obtained coefficients, ARDL, ECM and FMOLS methods were used. In addition, the data used in this research are collected for the period between 1974 and 2010. The results indicate that the estimated process is random and nonlinear, and its modality is Local Level Model. According to the estimated demand function, the estimated price elasticity of gas oil demand in the short and long term are -0.09 and -0.13, respectively. Also, in the short and long term, the income elasticity is 0.4 and 0.57, respectively. In addition, the coefficient of tractor number in each acre of the area under cultivation, which shows the sensitivity of gas oil demand to equipment and agricultural machines changes, is obtained to be 0.34.

In this paper we identify the production chains of Iranian economy by using average propagation length (APL) index. In our imprical investigation, we have applied the mentioned methodology to the 2000 input-output table of Iran. In order to obtain a clear overview of the production chains in Iran, the table was aggregated to 6 sector level. At first we calculate the backward and forward linkages and APLs, and then we visualize the production chains for Iranian economy. As a second application we have considered the linkages, APLs and production chains at a more detailed level. For this purpose, we have used the 28-sector classification. The results for the backward and forward linkages of each sector indicate that industry and electricity, gas and water supply are known as key sectors. Also it was found that largest average forward APL value belongs to agriculture and mining, and smallest value belongs to services and construction. Likewise, the largest average backward APL value is observed for construction and agriculture, and smallest value oserverd for mining and services. It should also be noted that in both applications mining located at the beginning of the production chain o Iranian economy.

Volatility of the exchange rate and its deviation from the equilibrium path is one of the most important economic variables. Theoretical studies and empirical evidence show that the deviation of the exchange rate from its equilibrium path and its volatility can potentially affect trade (import and export), production and investment (domestic and foreign). Therefore, this study examines the relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and the import of intermediate – capital and consumer goods during the period of 1974 -2011. This study estimates real equilibrium exchange rate by applying behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. Also the volatility of exchange rate is estimated by autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) method. Finally the impact of these variables on the import of intermediate–capital and consumer goods are estimated by Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FM-OLS). This study shows that the real exchange rate in Iran is constantly deviated from its equilibrium path.

Based on the literature on the relationship between financial development and trade, this paper examines the effect of financial development on both trade and trade in services in acceded countries to the WTO. By using a panel data method for the period of 1985 to 2006, the results indicate that financial development has a positive effect on total trade in acceded countries; therefore, it shows that financial development is a determinant factor of trade development and policy in these countries. On the other hand, financial development has a negative effect on trade in services.

In this paper, we focus on two major questions about tax incentives: 1) Do the countries compete over tax incentives in a same way as they compete over tax rates?; 2) Do the offered tax incentives results in attracting investment and increasing economic growth? The results of testing the first question, in which spatial econometric technique for panel data and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) Method were used, indicate that the developing countries compete over tax rates and tax holidays (and don’t compete over investment rebates); In other words, governments consider other states’ tax policies as a benchmark for judging their own tax policies. The results of testing the second question, in which econometric techniques of dynamic data and Generalized Moments Method (GMM) were used, indicate that tax rates and tax holidays influence foreign direct investment while investment rebates don’t have such an effect and only tax rates have significant relationship with private sector investment and economic growth. Tax incentives which were tested here include tax rates reduction, tax holiday and investment rebates and empirical evidence is based on time period 1985- 2008 and the data for 45 developing countries.

Nowadays, besides of other factors affecting macroeconomic instability, the chronic trade account deficit has a crucial role in this instability. It is clear that the trade account deficit can be risen from instability of goods and services exports. Therefore, in this research, along with investigating the concept of non-oil export instability, we’re going to study the most important factors shaping this phenomenon during the period of 1971-2008. To do this, we have chosen the best index for measuring export instability and also other indices for measuring commodity and geographical concentration. Then, by using Bound test method, suggested by Pesaran(2001), we have investigated the long run relationship among the variables. In the next stage, the Variance decomposition method, suggested by Liu and Xin(2008), has been employed to analyze the isolated effects of commodity and country groups on export instability. Our results show that commodity and geographic concentration along with oil and industrial exports have a significant effect on non-oil export instability. In fact, when considering geographical concentration, the largest instability comes from OPEC market.