پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 54 (پاییز 1393)

The purpose of this paper is to open new horizons for decision-making and resource allocation system in Iran in order to meet the national development goals. To this end، we have relied on theoretical framework of institutionalism and the important finding of historical institutionalists that “History of development is the economic history of institutional innovations that reduce transactions cost” to analize underlying factors of institutional changes and significant role of government and historical context in path of institutional innovations of reducing transaction cost and features of said innovations that result in development and reduction of transaction cost in developed societies. Also،by referring to the economic history of our country، we have tried to render and study important evidence of prominent achievements to reduce transactions cost. To achieve such purpose، we have presented two samples of said innovations in post-revolution Iran «clarification of costs and sources that are based on dollar unit» and «clarification of foreign trade rules» and we have compared the situation before and after these innovations. The result of this research indicates that in the context of the political economy of Iran، it is possible to increase the speed of realization of national development goals trough institutional innovations of increasing opportunity cost for rent seeking and drowing up manufacturers’s trust.

In this paper by using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model we study how macroeconomic variables are affected by different shocks using fiscal reaction functions for Iran’s economy. For this purpose we compare the results of a real business cycles model in a baseline scenario، in which the government does not follow any specific reaction to the shocks and alternatives in which the government reacts counter and pro cyclically to the shocks. Results of the simulations indicate that when the government follows backward looking fiscal rules the deviation of the variables from steady state increases. In other words، in a real business cycle model for the Iranian economy، we show that the consequence of the government’s intervention in the economy is economic instability in Iran.

Given the importance of identifying the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in adoption of appropriate economic adjustment policies and the requirement of accurate estimation of elasticity of trade balance to income and price changes for proper timing of such policies، in this study the effect of domestic and foreign income and real exchange rates on the Iranian trade balance has been investigated. Moreover، the reactions of trade balance to changes in the variables of interest have been estimated using time varying parameter models over the period of 1338-1389. The results show that the coefficients of the estimated model are not constant over the time and they are influenced by structural changes such as: oil price shocks، economic policies and exogenous shocks such as the imposed war and the Islamic revolution. By comparing the price elasticity of the balance of trade and the real exchange rate، it can be seen that by increasing real exchange rates during the period of 47-50 and 56-67، the price elasticity is positive and becomes negative when real exchange rates reduce.

Corporate income taxes are the major source of tax revenues. This tax affects the systematic risks that companies confront with. Based on the data about 283 companies over period 2004-2011، we use random effects panel data models to examine the relationship between companies'' income، profit before tax and the beginning retained earnings Results of this study indicate that there is no specific relationship between systematic risk and the amount of tax paid by the companies; Among all companies only 93 fail to show significant effects of systematic risk. Additionally، the sign of the coefficient for the systematic risk variable is not the same for all the companies. The findings also imply that there is a significant and positive relationship between the ratios of profit before tax to nominal capital and the beginning retained earnings with ratio of tax to nominal capital of the companies. Moreover، the magnitude of the coefficient on the ratio of profit before tax to nominal capital is larger than the beginning retained earnings to nominal capital.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of crude oil production and price shocks on the monetary، fiscal and macroeconomic variables in the framework of new Keynesian open economy DSGE model for Iran. Accordingly، the paper estimates a DSGE model composed of households، firms، foreign trade and consolidated accounts of government and central bankfor the Iran economy to be calibrated and simulated. The results of simulation and analysis of impulse response function indicate that the effects of crude oil prices and production shocks on investment، national output، marginal costs of production and inflation are positive and significant. They also show that the shocks have significantly positive effects on government spending، tax revenues and the monetary base. The findings suggest that monetary and fiscal policies in Iran are mainly formed by oil revenue due to the dependency of public budget through the currency obtained from oil export revenues. The results indicate that oil revenue is both a blessing and a curse for the economy. The results stress to reduce the dominance of government on oil revenues، government tax budgeting and limit the government’s access to foreign currency reserves.

The genesis of innovation، the revolution in the conception of knowledge and improvement of related activities have established a new stage of development. This fundamental change in the economy leads to a tremendous change in the nature of activities and competition inside the country as well as other countries. In recent years، with the rise of knowledge based economy، innovation has played an important role in the economy. For this reason، developed economies are often so-called “innovation based economies”. This article studies the innovation effect on the growth of total factor productivity using panel data for 16 developing countries for years spanning 1996 to 2007. In this study، variables such as amount of recorded patents in one million populations، research and development expenditure (% gross domestic production) and amount of researchers in one million populations have been used as proxy measures of innovation? combined student registration rate is a proxy for human capital. The results indicate that the variables have positive and significant effects on total factor production.

The first step to fight against poverty and inequalities reduction in line with development policy، is correct understanding and awareness of poverty situation. Due to this thread، this paper studies the relative poverty in urban areas of Kerman province during 1391 - 1385 and comparewith the whole country. For this purpose، the relative poverty line and its indicators were determined and compared during the sample years. results show that the general trend of relative poverty in urban areas of Kerman province and the whole country has been upward with an exception in year 88 when compared with year 87 in Kerman. furthermore، the poverty line in urban areas of the country is higher than Kerman province during the period considered in this study. the average annual growth rate of poverty line in the urban areas of Kerman was 19 per cent when compared to 24 per cent in urban areas of the country. Although there also appears to be a downward trend in poverty in urban areas of Kerman province، the results shows that there has been an improvement in the poverty situation during the relevent period.