پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 58 (پاییز 1394)

Resilience economy as a new subject is considered for Iranian economic policies since 2013. Applying mainstream economic theories for solving economic issues in Iran is the main concern of general policies on resilience economy. Accordingly, evaluation of vulnerability of economic sectors regarding to international sanctions can identify the vulnerable sectors with the purpose of planning and executing economic resilience policies. In this study, intermediate import decomposition is used for identifying import dependence of sectors and the method of mixed variable input-output model based on constrained supply approach is applied regarding the year 2011 input-output table which is aggregated for 9 sectors. Results show that first, regarding to the constraines of supply based on import dependence of each sector, the sectors of industry and mine sector, water, electricity and natural gas distribution services and construction are the most vulnerable sectors and second, the economic sectors which have more shares in Iran aggregate import aren’t more vulnerable necessarily.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of inflation in the period 1960- 2011 and autoregressive model (VAR) is used here. In this study due to the structure of the Iranian economy, the mark-up index is derived and its growth growth along with liquidity growth, nominal exchange rate growth and productivity growth are used in the model. The results of Granger causality test show one-way causal relationship between the three variables of mark-up growth, exchange rates growth and labor productivity growth in one hand and inflation on the other hand, as well as two-way causal relationship between money growth and inflation. Also impuls response functions confirm a negative relationship between labor productivity growth and inflation. Moreover, based on the analysis of impulse response functions of three variables of mark-up growth, liquidity growth and exchange rate growth, they are positively correlated with inflation. Variance decomposition showed that each of the variables of inflation, mark-up growth and labor productivity growth in the short-term and respectively with the shares of 45, 29 and 25 percent, have the highest explanation on inflation forecast variance. But in the long run, the effect of mark-up growth is reduced, and labor productivity growth, inflation, liquidity growth, exchange rate growth and mark-up respectively explain 30, 28, 17, 14 and 10 percents of the forecast errors.

In this paper, to evaluate income and distributional effects of Personal Income Tax, a hypothetical society is simulated. 12 income sources are defined that each member of society can earn income from one income source or more. Then, using FORTRAN programming, the government's tax income, income distribution and average tax rate are calculated, assuming five alternative Scenarios: 0. Base scenario: taxing personal income at source according to "Direct Income Taxes Act"; 1. taxing the sum of incomes each individual person earns from different businesses he or she owns and exempt his / her business income once; 2. taxing the sum of incomes each person earns from non-exempt sources and exempt his / her business income once; 3. taxing the sum of incomes each person earns from exempt and non exempt sources and exempt his / her business income once; 4. qualifying third scenario by accepting a 1 billion Rials as exemption. Results of simulation indicate that the government's income and income equality is maximized in 3rd scenario.

The role and importance of knowledge in economic growth has been considered sincethe second half of the twentieth century. As of 1980s, knowledge entered the production function as an endogenous and determining variable. By the time that knowledge, innovation and new technologies became of value; broad studies were carried out in order to investigate the role and impact of these variables on economic growth, both at national and regional (regions within the national borders) levels. Economic researchers have tried to explain the disparities in economic growth of regions according to the differences in knowledge share and innovation. Through the production and publication of financial accounts of provinces in Iran since 1990, the pathway for such studies has been smoothed and the ground has been prepared for investigating the role and impact of knowledge and innovation on economic growth of different provinces and their diversity in economic growth. In the present article, the effects of knowledge variables (including specialized labor, R&D employees and value-added of hightech sectors) have been surveyed alongside with two traditional variables of labor and capital on economic growth of Iran provinces during years 1990-2011 and the economic growth model has been estimated through this approach. The results of model estimation using stochastic effects method reveal that specialized labor growth rate has the highest effect on economic growth of provinces, by a coefficient equal to 2.05. The growth rates of capital per capita, and high-tech and intermediate-tech industries (per employee) have the coefficients of 0.89 and 0.19, respectively.

Production Sharing Contract (PSC), Buyback Contract (BBC) and Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) are considered as three rival contracts in upstream oil & gas field in Iran. So, decisionmakers in the process of selecting a suitable contract from the set of three mentioned contracts consider a set of jurisprudential, legal and economic conditions about these contracts. In this paper with the aim of explaining the economic capacity of the three contracts in comparision with each other and based on Static Optimal Methods, we compare these contacts in terms of two important economic indices of optimal investment and oil production and then, we prioritize them. Finally, we have concluded that upstream contracts of Production Sharing, Iran Petroleum Contract and Buyback are ranked in the first, the second and the third place from the perspective of optimal investment level, and from the perspective of optimal oil production level, in case of more participation of private sector and less interference of public ector, these contracts are ranked the first, the second and the third, respectively.

Evaluating performance of the Islamic financial and economic institutions and identifying their mechanisms can help to have a better policy-making in banking system. In this regard, different variables can be considered to measure the profitability of banks. Among these, return on assets as one of factors affecting profitability of banks is influenced by two categories of internal and external variables. This research aims at identifying the factors affecting the return on assets in Islamic banks. Data are collected from 29 Islamic banks in 10 Islamic countries over the period of 2004-2011 and are analyzed by using panel data regression in linear models. The results indicate that among 9 variables included in themodel, there is a strong, positive, and significant relationship between degree of investment and return on assets. Moreover, there is a strong, negative, and significant relationship between expenses management ratio and return on assets.