نشریه مطالعات جمعیتی
پیاپی 1 (بهار 1392)

Nowadays, over-concentration of population in metropolitans and large cities has become a complex issue. All states are concerned with optimal population distribution, and always implement some policies to balance the population of metropolitans. In this paper, the most important policies in selected Asian countries that had been applied for better population distribution are identified. Then, these policies have been evaluated and classified by 54 Iranian’s experts in order to be adjusted and implemented in Iran. Thus, this paper has two main purposes A) Identifying of effective policies that could be consistent and adjusted with Iran’s condition. B) Prioritization of policies with regard to effectiveness and implementation. The results showed that the policies in the following four domains might have the greatest effects on optimal distribution of population. 1.  Social and cultural policies, 2. Developing poles of growth, 3. Planning of land use and 4. Fighting against socio-economic corruptions. Also, investment policies in regional development, actualizing of the regional development potentials, and extension of employment opportunities in rural areas and towns are the first three priorities chosen by experts in implementing population control of metropolitans and large cities in the country.

Divorce is a phenomenon which threatens the family and is considered as the end of a formal and legal marriage. Divorce can be studied from sociological, economical and demographic perspectives. In this article, at first, a brief review of the theoretical and empirical evidence on determinants of divorce in Iran and 21 countries in Asia and the Pacific region are examined and compared. Secondly, according to registered statistics of marriage and divorce over the past 25 years, levels and trends of changes in marriage and divorce in Iran and selected countries are assessed and compared. Finding revealed that determinants of divorce comprise of: parent’s characteristics, individuals’ characteristics, marital factors, couple’s interaction, and attitudes to marriage and divorce. In the second part of the article, we analyzed trends of Divorce Crude Rate and Marriage Crude Rate using the data registered in the Iranian vital statistics system. Statistical analysis indicates that in Iran between 1986 and 2011, crude rate of marriage and divorce has increased from 6.9 and 0.7 to 11.7 and 1.9 per thousand. In addition, the ratio of divorces per 100 marriages increased from about 10.3 to 16.3 over these years. Comparing corresponding rates in selected countries in the region indicates that the rates in Iran are at the upper mid level and interestingly, the average marital years that couples spend before their separation in Iran is lower than that of other countries.

This paper aims to assess prevalence of intention for having single child and its determinants among new cohorts of marriage. For this paper, the data of the first phase of the survey of a mix method study conducted in 2012 among 871 men and women were analyzed. Sample was selected using stratified cluster sampling from among men and women who attend government based premarital counseling centers in Tehran. The findings revealed that a significant proportion of young men and women (46% of men and women) intended to have single child, while nearly 43% intended for two children. Determinants of intention for single child among men comprised of individualism (OR=1.34), lower concerns on consequences of having single child (OR=0.74), greater gender equality beliefs (OR=4.66), and greater social concerns of childrearing (OR=1.10), while determinants of having single child among women comprised of older age (OR=1.08), greater social concerns of childrearing (OR=1.11), greater individualism (OR=1.31), lower concerns on consequences of having single child (OR=0.60), and greater idealism in child rearing (OR=1.71). These results reflect some sorts of transition toward greater internal controls on fertility decisions in developed urban areas such as Tehran, which is consistent with second transition theory.

This study used data largely from the 2012 Tehran Survey of Fertility Intentions, conducted in a representative sample of households having one married women aged 15-35, and partly from the 2009 Tehran Survey of Fertility, the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey, and the 2011 Iran census to estimate recent levels and trends of fertility and its differentials in Iran and the city of Tehran. This study estimated the total fertility rate for women aged 15-49 living in Iran in 2011 at 1.6 children and for women residing in urban and rural areas at the rate of 1.5 and 1.9 children per woman, respectively. Also, the total fertility rate estimated for married women aged 15-35 living in the city of Tehran increased slightly from 1.2 children per woman in 2000 to 1.4 in 2009 and then plunged to 1.1 children in 2012.  The estimated total fertility rates for women having a high income level and living in the upper districts of Tehran (0.7 births) were lower than the rates estimated for those with low income (1.5 births) and those residing in the low districts of Tehran (1.3 births). On average, women aged 35 had 1.8 live-born children, while employed women and those with post-secondary education had on average 1.5 children, lower than the numbers among unemployed women (1.9 children) and those with incomplete secondary education (2.4 births). This study identified women with low fertility that makes the country’s fertility level remain stubbornly low.

Fertility has significantly reduced in Iran during the past few decades. This reduction is a pervasive phenomenon in all provinces of Iran. However, there are still significant differences in fertility at the provincial level. The present paper aims to assess determinant factors of fertility in the three provinces of Booshehr, Hormozgan, and Kohgilooye and BooirAhmad with distinct fertility levels.  The data for this study are drawn from a survey in 2012 and the sample comprise of 1149 married women aged 35-44 years resided in these provinces. The main question is that how much of differences in fertility is attributable to ideational factors and how much is attributed to socio-demographic factors? The results show that mother’s education, mother’s age at first birth, and sex composition of children are main determinants of fertility and have the most important effects in explaining variations in fertility. According to this study, we argue that socio economic determinants, compared to ideational factors impart greater influence on fertility and fertility behavior in these provinces is better explained by socio–economic approach than ideational approach.

This study concerns with the evaluation of socio-economic and demographic consequences of environmental destruction of Urmie Lake. The main purpose is to explore the impacts of drying Urmie Lake on social, economic and demographic aspects of human populations living around it. Mixed Method is the main methodological approach of this study. For gathering data, different methods have been adopted including survey, interview and observation. The research specifically focused on rural and urban communities which are located in South, West and Northwest of the Lake. The results show that challenges such as threatening population health,  rural-urban migration, poverty, unemployment, declining agricultural activities, civil protests, destruction of water sources and so on are the main ramifications of this phenomenon.