فصلنامه سیاستهای مالی و اقتصادی
سال یکم شماره 3 (پاییز 1392)

Inflation is a major problem in many developing countries and high levels of inflation leads to economic growth reduction، misallocation of resources and relative prices disorder. Since linear models have been used in most of the for time series modeling، so this paper using a nonlinear model aims to increase the empirical literature of the inflation sustainability in Iran. This study using the nonlinear STAR models examines the hypothesis that the monthly inflation rate has been stable during 1962-2007. In order to study the unit root hypothesis the Ng، Perron and KPSS testes also have been used. Results suggest that the monthly inflation rate in Iran is nonlinear and follows the LSTAR model. Results also indicate that the monthly inflation rate is locally unstable، so in low regime (less than 2/5 percent) is stable and in a high one is unstable and whenever inflation is in high regime the cost of each inflation rate control policy to is more than it’s benefit، but stability analysis based on unit root tests indicates that monthly inflation rate in the economy of Iran has long-term structure

In recent years following the ratification of the rationalization of banks interest rate law (reducing this rate) and absence of efficiency and development in the alternative banking system، understanding the relationship of two macroeconomic factors of inflation rate and interest rate of deposits is a matter of the great importance. Using the Error Correction Model and correction of mistakes، that help us to distinguish between long term and short term fluctuations، the results of this study show that there is a significant positive relationship between interest and inflation rates in long term. In the other word، inflation rate is the reason of correlated fluctuation of interest rate of deposits. Also by case studying of Sepah bank branches in Tehran، a reverse relationship between inflation rate and various kinds of deposits and a direct relationship with national income growth has been established.

Oil export revenues constitute an important part of the annual budget in Iran. Since taxes are regarded as the major factor shaping the relationship among the government and citizens in a country so responsiveness of governments depends on their reliance on taxpayers. Natural resource abundance and windfall revenues probably weaken this relationship. Therefore، it was intended in the present paper to investigate the impact of effective factors on tax revenues from the perspective of «natural resource curse hypothesis». According to the current data، dependence of the government on tax revenues is decreased when oil revenues are increased; hence increased oil share in the government budget and fluctuations of oil revenues are one of the effective factors on the tax system. The purpose of the present paper was to investigate the effect of oil revenues on financial policies in Iran during the time period 1979-2009 in the framework of a linear model. The findings revealed that windfall revenues arising from oil resources decrease the need to taxation and lessen the efficiency of the tax system.

Migration and redistribution of population that are some of the basic factors in the country for crowd control، displacement and leading of populations toward the economic poles so always have been considered by social and economic policy maker. So acquiring scientific knowledge about immigration phenomenon is the base of policy making and management of the country. The general population and housing census of is one of major statistical source to investigate population and its demographic characteristics. Based on general 2011 population and housing census data this paper investigates factors affecting interprovincial migration by using gravity models during 2006-2011. The first part of this paper has been investigated net migration، in-migration and out-migration of some provinces in Iran in 2011. Alborz، Tehran، Esfahan، Gilan، Mazandaran in-migration provinces and Khuzestan، Kermanshah، Lorestan، Sistan & Baluchistan and Chaharmahalvabakhtiyari have been main out-migration provinces in period of (2006-2011). In total، Iran has had 22 in-migration provinces and 9 out-migration provinces during (2006-2011). In the second part، gravity model by applying ordinary least squares (OLS) have been estimated for all provinces except for of Alborz province (due to data limitation). The result show that the migration from point I to point J based on the gravity model could be explained. Selected variables، including population، unemployment rate، geographic distance، neighboring، urbanism level، GDP and price index in the region of destination and origin as an explanatory variables have reasonable relationship with migration flows.

TThe situation، in which the general level of the prices increases improperly and continuously، is called inflationary situation. Inflation always has been known as an economical problem and some remedies have been proposed to control it. One of the solutions is production. Using the Auto regression Model (VAR) this article aims to evaluate the mutual relation of the inflation rate and production gap in Iran''s Economy during (1971-2011). Finding new remedies، the policy-makers and economic programmer''s would be able to control the inflation with comprehensive programs and goals. The results of the study show that the root of inflation in Iran is not merely a monetary relationship. Results indicate that of momentary interaction of the relationship of gross domestic production gap has been decreased at the beginning and then has been increased at the long-term but regarding the variance Analysis، as the time passes the trend tends to increase. The results also show that not only the monetary policies will not be able to control the inflation rate but also the production should be considered at the real section of Economy.

Iran stock exchange is the main component of Iran’s capital market that has drew more attention to itself during recent years. Iran’s stock market are influencing by many factors which some of them are exogenous. In this study، the impacts of the exogenous oil and gold prices on Iran’s stock price index during the June 2000 till the November 2010 have been investigated. For this aim، the vector error correction model، impulse response function and variance decomposition have been used. The Result of long-term dynamic model shows a long-term equilibrium relationship between variables. The results also indicate that gold price has significant positive impact on stock price index while oil price has significant negative impact. Error correction coefficient indicates the slowing down of the short-term adjustment in long-term equilibrium.

Concentration is one of the market structure variables which based on it to the size of competition could be measured. In order to assess the concentration of markets many variables such as index of concentration ratio، Herfindal- Hirsthman index، Hall-Tiedman index، Comprehensive industrial concentration index، Entropy index and Hannah-Kay Index during 1996-2011 have been used in this paper. The main objective of this paper is to measure the amount of Market concentration and show its changes during the pre-said years. The results approve the high level of concentration in car industry of Iran and even after the emerging of new brands and economical Firms this concentration has continued its trend