نشریه مطالعات راهبردی جهان اسلام
سال هفدهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 68، زمستان 1395)

After the fall of Saddam, the political process in Iraq did not turn the way that American had expected and they not only failed to establish their desirable structure, but also they could not employ their affiliated players. In this respect, Ayatollah Sistani played a crucial role. This paper by employing analytical-descriptive method and collecting library and interview data attempts to analyze the impacts of Iraqi Shiite authorities and Ayatollah Sistani in specific, in post-Saddam era. The findings of this paper indicate that Ayatollah Sistani has been advocating to the state-building process in Iraq and he supported the Shiite’s rights as the political majority, leading the process of drafting the constitution, confronting the occupiers, resolving disagreements among Shiites parties, taking trans-tribal approach and supporting the process of combating terrorism. Despite trying not to take side or express his position in political affairs as he had learnt in Ayatollah Khoei school of thought, Ayatollah Sistani have had a profound impact on the political trends of Iraq after the fall of Saddam. Also, the findings of this paper shows that the Shiite community in Iraq have to face the challenges in “religion and politics relation”, “Arabic and non-Arabic spiritual leader”, “ ‘Howzeh-e Nategheh’ and ‘Howzeh- Nategh’eh’”.

Given the differences in the arrangement of the regional security of the Middle East, following targeted friendship and the distribution of power among major players in the security complex, have prevented any dramatic change upon the intervention of transregional powers. Based on this theoretical model of structure, the security issues of Levant as well as the Middle East and the distribution of power as well as the hostility pattern remained unchanged and this regional security suite without internal and external degradation, maintain its position prior to the direct intervention of superpowers and this intrinsic system continues to work without being affected by the presence of the superpowers.
This process proves this claim that local states can ensure their securities if they face any threats by the distant superpowers, even without forming interdependent security. The evident indications suggest that the penetration of America and Russia in Levant subset is in line with this theoretical model and the standardized regional security model has not led to a competitive pattern , balance of power and coalition between the main powers of the region, because the conflict pattern in this region originates from indigenous factors in the region and the United States and Russia, even with their widespread existence could not redefine, reorganize or rearrange the region.

The establishment of a new shite-dominated state in post-Saddam era added to the complexity of the power balance logic and created a new pattern for competition. Meanwhile, the attention to the quality and quantity of interaction between two major players of this scene including Dawa party as the dominant internal actor supported by the US and the United State as the external involving player led the researcher to this important issue that the basis of these interactions is in “pursuing the bilateral interests and exploring each other’s capabilities in line with their own goals”.
However, it should be mentioned that in the interaction of Dawa party and its branches, different factors are crucial to be considered that include: structural-organizational ideology, the approaches of Dawa party actors, perspective and the considerations of other involved political parties in power, the pressure of the opposing and out of state political processes, US political-security priorities and requirements, the strategies of the dominant political parties in the US and the foreign policy processes and the positions of two countries.
Therefore, in considering the quality and the quantity of the relations between the United States and Dawa party, as the major Shiite political movement in Iraq in post-Saddam stage to post-ISIS era, scientific and realistic study of the developments in Iraq is indispensable and it forms the main issue of this research. Also, by shedding light on Dawa party’s past, this paper tries to clarify the fractioning of this party in regard to interaction or opposition with the United States.

Given the affinity in traditional, historical and strategic interests of Iran and Russia, these neighboring countries have long been pursuing a special relation toward each other, despite having their ups and downs; Sometimes the two countries were so close that they discussed about strategic collaborations and sometimes they were so apart that they barely had any relations. Meanwhile, the developments in the Middle East especially the crisis in Syria have created aligned benefits and threats for both Iran and Russia. Accordingly, the examination of the current trends in the reciprocal relations as well as regional and international developments show that there are several reasons that capable Tehran and Moscow to deepen their relations and their strategic cooperation. This paper seeks to examine the possibilities of the strategic relations between Iran and Russia and attempts to provide the reasons for the avoidance of the mentioned cooperation.

The evaluation of the US military strategy during the Obama era can be a good basis for comparing the military strategy of this country at other times and initiate mapping a large-scale behavioral pattern of the United States in the military arena. The main purpose of this article is to study the pattern of US military behavior in the Middle East during the Obama era. The US military attitude during the Obama era in the war-torn countries of the Middle East was not entirely similar and it was different in term of each country. In Iraq, the general strategy of US has been to transfer the role of suppressing ISIS to some local forces and strengthening them through training and air supports. Also, due to the presence of ISIS in Syria, the same approach has been followed by the United States. However, in Libya after the direct military attack and the fall of the government and by the rapid withdrawal of foreign military forces, this country was swept by a turmoil, which led the US to re-engage its tactic of strengthening local forces and air support to compensate for its failure. The involvement of America in Yemen was influenced by political considerations and the ties with Saudi Arabia and supporting Saudi’s air operations and their policies. In general, it could be said that although the military strategy of the United States have been resulted in the decline of the overall presence of ISIS in the geographical sphere, but it did not annihilate the infrastructure of ISIS. Therefore the United States could not lead the war-torn countries in economic and political spheres in order to form full states and centralized authority as it has been observed in the case of Kurds that American interventions gave rise to the disputes in political sphere.

One of the factor behind the social movements in Egypt has been the demographic structure of this country, especially the role of the young population in this development. In 2011, there was a new protest movement in Egypt which had previously been thought by few to be likely to form. In examining the factors shaping the popular protests of 2011 in Arabic countries of the Middle East and North of Africa, several factors are emphasized that include; fragile structure of dictatorial regimes, external affiliations, broad class gap and undermining the human rights and young people. A variety of discontent in the younger generation of Egyptians eventually led to the fall of Hosni Mubarak in 2011. These issues are mainly embedded in the demographic structure of this country. Hence, this paper examines the role of structural factors especially the younger generation of Egyptian in the recent developments in this country.
The main question this research attempts to address is that what is the reason for the active role of the youth in the recent movements of Egypt? To answer this question, two points should be evaluated; the adaptation of free economic policies plus the expansion of higher education and technological developments on one hand and the lack of political developments and the lack of civil and parties freedom on the other hand, that led the Egyptian youngers to face relative deprivation over the years. In other words, the greater distance between value expectations and value capabilities eventually results in greater sense of deprivation and relative injustice.