نشریه تحلیل های اقتصادی توسعه ایران
سال دوم شماره 2 (پیاپی 3، تابستان 1393)

Implementation of monetary policies and adjustments in liquidity are the most important tools of the Central Bank of Iran used in structural reforms in the banking industry. This policy influences the efficiency of the monetary policy through its impact on bank credit channels. In this study we used dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models as one of the most innovative approaches to monetary policy to assess the effects of monetary policy on the economy. We use quarterly data from April of 1990 to June of 2010. We used Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of DSGE models and used DSGE simulation to measure the effect of monetary shock on the economy and the structure of the banking industry on the efficiency of the monetary policy. This study concludes that monetary expansion resulted in an increase in inflation.The results suggest that the increased competition in attracting deposits during monetary shocks, results in an increased consumption as well as deposits for households. However due to lower level of loans for producers, production increases less. On the other hand, increased competition in lending causes results in a higher increase in household consumption, wage labor, interest rates on deposits and loans. However in these conditions, following a monetary shock and in the initial period exclusive banks compared to competitive banks had a lower increase in concessional lending and thereby at the same time, the positive impacts on employment and production will be lower. In other words, increasing competition in lending in the banking industry results in higher impact of inflation on liquidity growth.

In this study, government budgets in the last 150 years have been examined based on Leviathan state and the selection process theories. Using this descriptive-historical method we evaluate the impact of financial behavior of government on development. In the first section of this paper, the concept of government nature has been defined and its influence on public finance is fully explained. Moreover, an oil-based economy and the role of public finance in this kind of economy are assessed. In the second section, we discuss how the English revolution caused a significant modification in nature of government, and played an important role in the industrial revolution and development in England. Later in the third section, we review the contemporary history of Iran, and examine whether any change of policies could possibly lead to an alteration of government nature, modification of financial system, and development improvement. In the fourth section, tree different experiences in monetary reform policies are investigated, and results are discussed.Finally it is concluded that in all the examined years, government’s interference with performance of enterprises has always resulted in minimizing investment incentives. In other words, rather than being a development motivator, government is seen as an obstacle in development procedure due to wrong policies and inefficient property rights.

The price of oil plays an important role in the global economy and is an important factor influencing the government and commercial sectors. Because of increasing importance of oil in financial markets, oil price predictions have always been an important subject for the researchers in Economics, and other economic agents. This paper tries to study the behavior of crude oil prices based on Smooth Transition Autoregressive models used on monthly crude oil prices data. We show that simulation results using STAR models estimated by Genetic Algorithm method, outperforms linear time series models, such as ARIMA, for out of sample predictions based on RMSE and MAE and DA criteria.

In this paper, we have calculated the environmental efficiency for India, Turkey, Egypt and Iran. The results show that Iran’s environmental efficiency has experienced a decreasing trend from 1991 to 2007And India, Turkey, Egypt and Iran have the highest environmental efficiency, respectively. We also have investigated the environmental Kuznets curve for this period using data envelopment analysis and GMM models. Environmental Kuznets curve is the relationship between the environmental efficiency and the national income of a country. Estimation of dynamic models for the panel data does not show the Kuznets relationship between these factors. Moreover, they reached equilibrium very fast.

This paper studies the condition of Iran in view of 21 economic indices during the years 1995 to 2007. Position of the country in the Southwest Asia region is specified with respect to the economic indices. In addition, using the Numerical Taxonomy Method, a general position is specified for the country in each year. Different trends of this general grade are investigated as well. The data of the research is prepared from the World Bank site. The results of the research indicates, the country has a high position in view of gross domestic product, gross capital formation, proportion of gross capital and gross saving formation in comparison with gross domestic products and net foreign trade balance. Yet, it has an average condition in view of these indices’ growth; human force and energy productivities. Finally, it occupies a rather low position in view of inflation, income distribution and unemployment rate that lead it to a yet lower position along with a decrease in its general grade in the region during the period.

Since 1980s, credit policy has been promoted as an important mechanism in job creation, especially for women. However, some researchers have showed that although microfinance programs have significant potential for contributing to women’s wellbeing, yet, many women borrowers have limited control over loans and/or resulted income. In such cases credit policy may not change women status. Women’s Cooperatives are one of the institutional set up for mitigating female unemployment and promoting women’s position in the society and household. However, in most cases, cooperatives that established by the help of state subsidies may not realize the expected goals. Our field research about Women’s Cooperatives in Mazandaran province (Iran) confirms that there is no automatic benefit of micro-finance for women; as many registered Women’s Cooperatives have not been able to create long lasting economic activity, despite of receiving loans.