نشریه تحلیل های اقتصادی توسعه ایران
سال دوم شماره 4 (پیاپی 5، زمستان 1393)

Tourism is one of the most important economic phenomena of this era, which is considered as a significant source of economic growth. The purpose of this study, is to examine the impacts of tourism development on the economy of Nishabour city, which has a high potential for tourism due to its historical background. To fulfill this purpose, provincial and municipal input-output coefficients are calculated by using FLQ non-survey based approach and national input-output data table for 2006. Furthermore, the input-output model of the city is presented by utilizing the direct and indirect multipliers of output and employment, and the expenses of internal tourism is added to the model as city’s exports. The results indicate that internal tourism in 2011, lead to a significant increase of 9083 billion rials in Nishabour’s output, and created 1731 person jobs, which is about 1.14% of the total employment of the city.

Since the objective and subjective economic welfares are uncorrelated, economists are considering subjective approach for measuring and evaluating the wellbeing of a society more than ever before. For this end, a new index was proposed to the literature known as “Happiness” index. This paper examines the impacts of the three key variables, namely poverty, income inequality and human development index on happiness for the 2005 - 2012 period. In this case a panel data of 100 countries were used. Estimations were done separately for developed countries, developing countries and both combined. The results from all three groups indicate that poverty has a negative impact on happiness, while improved income distribution increases the happiness. Furthermore, the results demonstrate a positive relationship between human development index and happiness. The important role of poverty, income inequality and human development index on happiness can be implied from the results, especially in the case of developing countries.

Purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between stock price and exchange rate by considering the oil price in oil-exporting countries. In order to examine the co-integration between variables, Pedroni and Kao tests are performed. In addition, FMOLS and DOLS tests are performed on monthly basis data to obtain long-run vector coefficients over 2009 – 2011 period. Furthermore, Short-run relationship between variables are examined by pooled mean group (PMG) test based on vector error correction model (VECM). I can be inferred from the results that there is co-integration between variables in the long-run. The long-run coefficients indicate a positive relationship between stock price and exchange rate and a negative relationship between oil price and exchange rate. Moreover, the results from PMG test demonstrate mutual causality between all the variables.

Indicator of good governance is one of the key factors in growth and development of countries. Oil revenues which are affecting government’s performance in oil-rich countries, posed a number of challenges such as low economic growth, poverty and lack of responsibility, corruption and lack of rule of law. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil revenues on good governance indicators in OPEC countries by using panel data approach over the period of 1996 - 2011. In this study, the arithmetic mean of corruption control, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, voice and accountability and political stability indices are used as an indicator of good governance. Moreover, the impact of oil revenues on each component is separately investigated. The results indicate that oil revenues have a negative and significant effect on good governance indicator, due to its negative and significant effects on corruption control, political stability and voice and accountability indices. On the other hand, the oil revenues have negative impacts on government effectiveness and regulatory quality, and a positive impact on rule of law, but these impacts are insignificant.

This study seeks to identify factors affecting the Iranian economy underdevelopment and the ranking. The method applied, due to the nature of the research, is descriptive. The population of the study was experts in the field of economy. First, by deployment of experts using the Delphi technique, we identified 20 factors affecting underdevelopment in the Iranian economy, in five categories. Then using statistical methods and fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making techniques these factors were rated. The results show of the use of techniques such as multi-criteria decision DEMATEL and ANP. Among the five factors affecting economic underdevelopment, human factors and management have the greatest impact on underdevelopment, and are followed by cultural factors, political factors, social factors, and financial and economic as those with the most impact.

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the type and extent of Internet’s impact on the volume of trade in services in D8 countries (including Iran) over 1995-2013 period. To achieve this purpose, a modified gravity model is estimated by the panel data using System Generalized Methods of Moments (SGMM). The results indicate that Internet penetration has a significant and positive impact on the volume of trade in services for the countries in the study; So that a 10 percent increment in the number of Internet users per 100 population (as an Internet penetration indicator) will increase the ratio of volume of trade in services to GDP as much as 0.18 percent. The results from model diagnostic tests, along with the coefficients of control variables meeting the expected sign, validates the estimation of econometric model.

According to statistical data, Iran’s average imports for the 5year period ending in 2014 were around 70 billion dollars. More importantly, foreign exchange needs due to the volume of imports, are not secured based on a diversified export portfolio. Hence, the main issue here is to evaluate the vulnerability of economic sectors to import constraint. To address this issue, it is required to compute the internal social accounting matrix (SAM) in which, imports are separated from production account. In this study, the extend of direct, indirect and induced dependencies of economic sectors on imports and output multipliers are calculated, by using 2011’s social accounting matrix, provided by the Research Center of Iranian Parliament. The results indicate that imports dependency, not only reduces the output multipliers but also changes the priority of economic sectors regarding output exponent. Furthermore, industry’s sub sectors are more vulnerable to import constrains, due to higher dependency on imports, compared to other sectors. In addition, crop and forestry, manufacture of fabricated metal products and motor vehicle and trailer manufacturing sectors with 0.616, 0.544 and 0.519 decrease in their multipliers, respectively, were subjected to the highest declines. And finally, manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (with a direct dependence coefficient of 0.1379 and direct, indirect and induced dependence coefficient of 0.2367), manufacture of rubber and plastics products (with a direct dependence coefficient of 0.1337 and direct, indirect and induced dependence coefficient of 0.2128) and manufacture of fabricated metal products (with direct dependence coefficient of 0.1168 and direct, indirect and induced dependence coefficient of 0.2112) have the highest dependencies on imports.