فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 70 (پاییز 1384)

Despite considerable development in macroeconomic theory in recent decades, the impact and magnitude of monetary and exchange rate policies on real economic variables are in dispute. This paper, by the aid of a co-integrated Macroeconometric Model of the Iranian economy, tries to do an analysis of such issue.Monetary policy is conducted via two policy instruments which are considered to be at the disposal of monetary authorities, namely required reserve ratio and central bank credit to the commercial banks. Simulation results of monetary policies show a significant effect on the real economic variables. An expansionary monetary policy boosts GDP and employment. Private investment, non-oil exports and private consumption are also increased. Exchange rate policy is conducted by making an arbitrary change in the official exchange rate. Simulations suggest that the devaluation of Rial against US Dollar causes a fall in GDP. Although imports fall but surprisingly there is no significant improvement on non-oil exports. Money supply also increases. This causes the price level to rise and thus creates stagflation.

After the birth of the classical school in the last quarter of the 18th century, the general view of this school which was on the basis of "No government intervention" in economic activities, as well as "Automatic existence of full employment", was the leading school until the publication of the general theory and the birth of the Keynesian school in 1936. From 1930-70 the Keynesian framework under the title of "Neo-classical synthesis" played the dominant role in macroeconomics.But from the mid 1970s due to the lack of micro foundations the school faced with theoretical crises, where eventually ended up to "New-classical macroeconomics."This paper presents the formation of New-classical macroeconomics and its relation to the old version and how they compare and contrast in macroeconomic analysis. Through the end, further expected evolution in the school and the way it might be shaped in the future will be analyzed.

In this paper, Economic Departments of Iran’s universities are ranked on the basis of papers published in nine scientific Persian journals during 1991-2003. First, Ranking by paper number and total number of pages was conducted and then three adjustments were made:Page size, research coefficient of journals and finally, scientific coefficient of authors.

In the tourism literature the factors that affect the tourism demand, can be divided into three categories: 1- Exogenous Factors, 2- Social-Psychological Factors, 3- Economic Factors. The recognition and measurement of first and the second types face difficulties that cant be used in economic models.In this paper we are going to use economic factors that affect the tourism demand. In this paper an empirical model with panel data used to estimate and analyze Iran tourism demand. The estimated model and tourism demand function shows, per capital income, relative price have more effect on demand.

The paper analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate in IRAN. The study employs simultaneous co-integrated system in estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates for imports and exports followed by structural VECM which provides a practical approach to incorporating long run structural relationship. The finding is that resource balance(capital flows), productivity, tariff and nominal exchange rate influence the real exchange rate for imports and exports in the long-run. Besides the difference of the fundamentals mentioned above, fiscal balance and money supply are found to impart short-run effects on the real exchange rate indices. Our results confirm that resource balance is the main source of real exchange rate fluctuation. The coefficients of adjustment are found to be -0.24 and -0.38 respectively for the real exchange rates for imports and exports.

By using of Two models in regional Economic such as basic economy model and share- change model and also the statistics for the years 1355/ 1365/ 1375 we have investigated that why the growth of Employment in Ilam province not proportionate to its national level growth the results are as below:1) Considering the fundamental Role of agriculture sector, it is suggested to invest in this sector to create jobs.2) In the industry sector, the investment should focus on such industries as of other, food, non- metallic mineral, wood and wood products.

This paper studies the usefulness of the P* (P-Star) model in the analysis of the behaviors of prices in Iranian economy. The P* model is based on the Quantity of Theory of Money. This model belief that the price level tends to move towards the equilibrium price level. The P*model uses prices gap to forecast inflation, if the equilibrium price is greater than the current price, there is a tendency for the price level to rise and vice versa. Potential output, the equilibrium velocity of money and the amount of money in the economy determine the equilibrium price in this approach. In this study, potential output and equilibrium velocity are derived using the Hodrick and Prescott filter.The results do not support the P-star model for Iranian Prices. According to the proponents of the P-star model the lagged value of the price gap must be significant in the model of inflation. But results of this study indicate that the lagged value of the price gap is no significant, so P-star model is not useful in forecasting inflation in Iran.

The experience of countries which implemented economic adjustment reveals that this policy affects the structure of income. The nature and legislative documents of development plans in Iran Also demonstrate that in so many cases they were influenced by conventional adjustments framework. Among to find out the impacts of these policies on the structure of income distribution and using econometrics model, MLE. Method and Johansen – Juselious for the years 1960-1990, the paper tries to examine the changes of Gini Coefficient as an indicator of income inequality for Iranian economy. The variables such as economic growth rate, the ration of social expenditure of government to GDP, real exchange rate, export ratio to GDP, and the degree of Freedom of economy were entered into the model as substitution variables of adjustment, and the results revealed that with an increase in variables such as economic growth rate, social expenditure of government and degree of Freedom of economy, Gini coefficient decreased and with and increase in unemployment and inflation rate, especially in the periods when adjustment policies were accompanied by measures like cut backs in public spending and subsidies, and movement toward real prices, The Coefficient decreased.

The purpose of this research is analysis of the mathematical structure of production and cost function for wheat. Methodology of this research is based on duality theory, where the theory indicates behavior production and the cost function similarities. In this study, for parameters estimation such as: elasticity of production, production coefficient and return to scale, trans-log cost function is chosen, that is a robust framework to analysis the production relations instead of production function. In this approach, we can avoid some of the restrictions such as: homogeneous production function and nonlinearity of inputs. For estimation of the input demands and increasing efficiency of model, a system of equations and seemingly unrelated regressions is used instead of single equation estimation. Data for research is obtained summarizing by information about hundred wheat producers in the area of arasbaran. Where the coefficient of determination model is ninety percent showing goodness of fit. The results of the fitting model indicates chemistry fertilizer- seed and machinery - labors are complementary. The complementary between labor and machinery, may lead us to mechanization policy and increasing of employment, this could be done by banking loan. Results also show that the quantity of morishima elasticity of substitution and elasticity factor ratio, labor – fertilizer and seed- machinery services greater than one. Thus, there exists a robust substitution relationship between them.Hypothesis of production homothetic, return to scale, unit elasticity of substitution, and Cobb-Douglas function are rejected by likelihood ratio test (LR).

Two powerful and sometimes controversial current social and economic trends are globalization and the widespread adoption of information and communication technologies (ICTs). The process of globalization and e-Commerce create new challenges and opportunities for firms Many argue that these two trends are closely associated, each driving the other forward, and both being driven by other common forces, such as trade liberalization, deregulation, ‍competitive factors, and so on….Competitive factors can affect the process of EC adoption and globalization. This paper develops and tests a model for examining the relationship between firm globalization, e-Commerce adoption and competitive factors

This research indicates the role position of oil in western Industrial societies. It studies the performances of states and important oil corporations in oil exporting countries in different times. Before the1950s, oil policies, especially oil price and the extent of the production depended on the wills of western states and corporations. By Nation's awareness and growing the national challenges against the status exploitations, the power and influence of international corporations became more limited. By using different and more complicated and exact means, western industrial societies established a better structured than before. It ensured the western domination and influence on oil policies. On other words, the approaches designed by western industrial societies founded both the international oil market and the hegemony of these structures on world oil policies and could provided continuous, safe, and cheep trend of this strategic commodity.

The purpose of this paper is surveying productivity situation of productive inputs in Khorasan`s large scale industrial groups. In order to, the methods of productivity indices and production function estimation have been employed. Moreover, the indices of labour-intensive, capital-intensive and energy-intensive of the industries have been calculated. Finally, labour productivity (as a major productive input) of the industries of the province compared with that of industries in the country level. Obtained results indicate that labour productivity of the country level has been higher than that of the province in the year under study. Comparing the industrial groups from the point of view of the labour productivity also indicates that except five groups, in which the province has showed a better performance, other industrial groups in the level country obtained a higher place than the province from this point of view. This research also revealed that the majority of Khorasan`s industrial groups are labour-intensive whereas, seven of them are consuming energy more than that of the average of the province's industries.