Examining the effect of subsidy targeting law on cost of services of bus Organization (Case study: Mashhad)

Subsidy aiming and reforming the cost of energy carriers, including fuel and oil products which directly affect the transportation of inside and outside of city, are important. In this study, we examine the effect of performance of subsidy targeting law on services of bus service organization and prediction of finished cost. For this reason, the way of genetic algorithm and the model of request for services of bus service organization are used. The price of energy carriers also estimated from ARIMA model. Predicting results of services of this organization as a result of performance of subsidy targeting law show the increasing of request by annual average of 8.81 percents. case of no equipment of organization, cost of services at the first year will increase, according to the most optimistic scenario, from 3240 to 6593 Rials and at the latest year by the most pessimistic scenario will increase from 3472 to 7608 Rials. By considering the prices of organization’s equipment, proportional to growth of services of bus service’s request, cost of services at the first year will increase, according to the most optimistic scenario, from 3529 to 11044 at the latest year of performance of this law and by the most pessimistic scenario will increase from 3635 to 11361 Rials. results forecasting cost of taxi services display that cost of Peykan taxi, 5 km trip in 1390 is 5731 RLs in the optimistic scenario is 6275 RLs. cost of Peykan taxi 5 km trip in a taxi rental Samand optimistic scenario in the 1390 is 9739 RLs, and bad scenario 11,151 RLs, If the government wants pay Direct subsidies to the taxi driver in law enforcement years for does not increase cost of taxi, first year of law enforcement and the optimistic scenario, a driver arrows (Peugeot, Pride) daily amount of 59,023 RLs, in the total years 24 Million Toman, a drivers driver arrows 79,147 RLs, in the total years Smand drivers pay 4 million Toman, bad scenario Peykan taxi driver in the arrows (Peugeot, Pride), the daily amount of 88,392 RLs, in the total year 36 Million Toman, Samand taxi driver in the arrows (Peugeot, Pride), the daily amount of 155381 RLs, in the total year 8 Million Toman.