Evaluation of Income Redistribution of Investment in Almond Late Flowering Cultivars Developed in Sahand Horticultural Station

Late spring chilling in spring is largely the cause for limiting almond production, so finding ways to reduce the loss is a priority in horticultural research. The government in Iran established Sahand Horticultural Research Station in 1968 to invest in some late flowering almond cultivars, and this resulted in seven new cultivars in 1994, which can survive the late chillings that might occur in spring. Since 1994, extensive efforts have been made in this regard and one can presently observe the outcome in the fields. This reduction can be illustrated by supply shift to left in Economic Surplus Approach. In order to assess the research and extension of impacts and to analyze the economic effects a suitable model has been constructed. This study analyzed the economic effects of almond late flowering cultivars developed in Sahand Horticultural Research Station, using the Economic Surplus model along with field data in a 25-year period from 1995 to 2019. The results indicated that the total benefits had been less decreased in chilling situations with the late flowering cultivars about for 9.52 billion Rials. It was shown that the benefits had decreased to 4.76 Rials whit the probability of chilling being less. The findings expressed that if the research investment in almond late flowering cultivars could keep the position of almond supply curve unchanged unless the weather conditions then the respective the economic surplus of producers, consumers and total would be decrease by -1.62, 41.7 and 40.07 billion Rials, less annually, respectively.