Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change and New Developments on Water Scarcity in Iran's Qezelozan-Sefidrood River Basin

Water resources shortage and continuous growth of the water demand of different sectors have resulted in critical water resources conditions in Qezelozan- Sefidrood River Basin. The situation has been exacerbated by different management strategies of eight riparian provinces with numerous development projects which affect the river flows in different provincial territories. Furthermore, climate change as an external driver can have significant negative impacts on the hydrologic conditions of the basin. This paper evaluates the effects of climate change and the development projects on water resources management in the Qezelozan- Sefidrood River Basin, using four different scenarios which the future climatic and development conditions. The climate change variables are based on the outputs of the HADCM3 model under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. Results suggest a high sensitivity of Gilan Province to the upstream developing scenarios, resulting in reduction of Sefidrood Reservoir inflows by %35. When climate change is also considered, this reduction can be up to %43. Based on the results, finalization of the new reservoir projects in the basin can decrease the Temporal Reliability Index of the basin by %10 and %14 in the 2010-39 and 2070-99 periods, respectively.