Design of a System Dynamics Model for the Steel Supply Chain

Dynamic modeling and simulation of complex economic systems are new technologies with many applications in analysis and performance improvement of economic systems. In economic systems with nonlinear nature, uncertainties, lack of structural transparency, necessity to enter the cause and effect variables and proficiency knowledge are among the most noticeable issues. The following considerations, discusses the system dynamics method (dynamic modeling) as a proper tool for modeling, simulation and predicting behavior of these systems. this paper reviews the behavior of the steel market using the systems dynamic system. Based on the cause and effect diagram which extracted in previous stage, the flow diagram was presented. The data which was available in databases of different public organizations was used to simulate the real world and predicting the behavior of steel market. Moreover, with changing the related variables in model the behavior of the model was Reviewed (sensitivity analysis). Using these results the effects of the ministry of commerce policies for realization of market adjustments is analyzed. Because of economic Structure of The government, Ministry of Commerce has always been the custodian of the market adjustments. Preventing the fluctuations of supply chain and market adjustments are considered one of the duties of this ministry. This study will help in removing barriers and presenting new innovative solutions for using scientific approaches based on system analysis in different governmental sectors.