Studying Factors Affecting Instability of Non-Oil Exports Exchange Revenues in Iran

So far Iran economic development has been dependant on oil and gas exchange revenues. Meanwhile in recent years the volume of Iran non-oil export has increased and share of industrial commodities in export rose up. Development of non-oil export and reduction of government reliance on oil exchange revenues has been constantly emphasized by country’s planners. With regard to growing importance of non-oil exports to compensate for reduction in oil exports in the future، Instability of non-oil exports exchange earnings can cause some problems in country’s development planning. Using ARDL method، in this research factors affecting instability of Iran non-oil export revenues during the 1350-1386 period has been studied. The results of the study shows that in the long and short run there is a positive relationship between geographic concentration، instability of effective exchange rate and instability of oil export exchange revenues، with instability of non-oil export exchange revenues in Iran. The elasticity of non-oil export exchange revenues with aforementioned variables are 7. 99، 15. 2، 0. 83 in the long run and 2. 44، 4. 64، 0. 25، in the short run respectively.