Simulating the Stock Dynamic Behavior in Tehran Stock Exchange

This article has tried to simulate the behavior of national Iranian copper industries company’s stock in the stock exchange market and help the share holder and policy makers to analyze the fluctuations and forecast the future of the stock. For the aim of simulation، first we have identified the influential factors in stock price in the stock exchange market and the influential factors in copper price in the market. The relation between different variables is shown by causal diagrams using system dynamics approach. Then the research model is simulated and analyzed by Vensim DSS. The results showed that production costs and copper’s world price are the most important factors in shaping the fluctuations of the stock price. At the end different scenarios such as reducing the subsidies in the second phase are examined and the results are discussed.