The Use of System Dynamics In Behavioral Prediction and Safe Yield Determination of Tabriz Plain

Tabriz plain with area of 869 square kilometers is a part of the Urmieh lake''s catchment. The purpose of this study is to simulate the behavior of Tabriz aquifer against various stresses and determine the permissible level for the operation of the aquifer. To achieve the above objective the system dynamics simulation method has been used. In this regard، the required information includes ground water resources data (wells، springs، qanat)، sources and consumptions after analysis to eliminate defects was given to the VENSIM PLE+ software، and a dynamic simulation model was developed. Then by define the range of allowed water table fluctuations and the allocation of extracted water under these conditions، the allowable water level and safe yield of the aquifer was determined. According to the obtained results in the six-year modeling period، the maximum amount of monthly and annual extraction without any damage from the aquifer is 12. 70 and 152. 45 million cubic meters respectively. The average of minimum and maximum allowable water table level during this period are 1317. 35 and 1322. 34 meters respectively.