Vulnerability of irrigation networks under climate change with optimum cultivation in limited water resources and implementation strategies

The goal of this paper is to optimize the cultivation area and evaluation of performance of Bilesavar irrigation network under climate change. In this regard, precipitation and temperature data was downscaled using IDW method under A2 and B2 scenarios, using Hadcm3 model for 2010-2039 and 2050-80 future and base (1970-2000) periods. Then the potential evapotranspiration and new irrigation demand were computed for cropping pattern and the performance of the network was evaluated in condition of limited water resources. Results of the research showed that A2 scenario in comparison with B2 has a critical condition. Therefore, in the worst case, temperature increases by 18% and rainfall decreases by 57% in comparison with base period. Also, the volume of water demand shows an increasing trend between 8-10% in the 2010-2039 period and 13% in the 2050-2080 period compared to base period. Moreover, changing optimal cultivation was investigated as a strategy to adapting to the climate change phenomenon using Lingo model. For instance, the optimization in future periods reduced 200 and 430 ha of cultivation area compared to the base period, respectively. Evaluation of network performance showed that the equity and adequacy indicators decreased and energy consumption (KWH) increased compared to the base period.