Estimating the Next Twenty Years of Cargo Traffic of Sea, Road and Rail Modes of Transport at Imam Khomeini Port Complex Using Time-Series Analysis Model

This study aims to extract the functions of demand and estimating cargo traffic of each transportation modes (road & railroad) connected to the Iran's hinterland transportation network within a range of 20 years (case study of Imam Khomeini Port). For this purpose, first effective explanatory variables were identified then traffic load of the modes were estimated using two stage simultaneous equation model of time series analysis by Eviews software. The results indicate that in case of no change in current policies, share of railway in cargo transportation to/from this port will be reduced significantly and at the most will reach 5%. That is in contrast with the objectives of the 20 year national transportation master plan calling railway for 30% of national cargo transportation.