Distribution Modelling of Lesser Kestrel (Falco Naumanni) in Golestan Province, Iran

Knowledge on geographical distributions and habitat selection of the threatened species are central to their conservation and management. The Lesser Kestrel, a colonial migratory falcon, listed as vulnerable by IUCN occurs in Golestan province. We performed ecological niche modelling using the MaxEnt software to predict geographical distributions of this species across the Golestan Province. Occurrence data were collected within the province and entered into the entropy algorithm in the form of geographical coordinates, and related to digitized maps of 28 environmental variables. The resulted model showed a good predictive ability and was significantly more powerful than the random model in predicting occurrences in test state (AUC=0.9, p < 0.001). Jackknife analysis indicated that the model was successful at predicting known species presences as suitable, and that distance to settlement areas, precipitation of warmest quarter, altitude, precipitation of wettest quarter, and slope were the most important predictors of Lesser Kestrel presence in Golestan Province.