Climatic Survey of Malaria Incidence in Iran during 1971-2005

Environmental and ecological factors especially climatic conditions have a significant impact on the prevalence of parasitic diseases. These factors has is more importance in Malaria Incidence and Epidemiology. Malaria as the most important parasitic disease, considered as one of most important public health problem. The climatic factors not only affect the growth and proliferation of the Anopheles mosquito but also affect in Plasmodium activity. In present study we surveyed the malaria situation during 1972 to 2005. In order to the five climatic parameters including mean temperature, total precipitation, number of days with precipitation over 0mm, rainfall distribution index and relative humidity were used as annual average during 1971 to 2005. we calculate average of annual of climatic parameters for the 31 synoptic stations of Iran Using GIS software. First, using the ordinary Kriging model with spherical a Semi variogram was traced maps of climatic parameters and these factors mean was calculated for each year. Finally, to investigate the relationship between climatic parameters with the prevalence index the Pearson correlation coefficient at 0.9 confidence level (p = 0.10). was used. A multivariate linear regression model was applied to estimate the prevalence of disease based on the mentioned climatic factors. Study of malaria prevalence in 1971 to 2005 showed cases of disease with has a decreasing trend with slope 0.0142 in year that this trend has been accelerated from 1375. Many cases of disease have been reported one year after increased precipitation. The result showed the weather humidity factors is important than temperature factors in the prevalence of malaria. I general, the developed model is explained 0.48 of changes prevalence time. In order to be successful Anti-malaria campaign in Malaria-prone areas in addition different influencing factors climatic factors should be considered.