Investigating the Recent Droughts Effects on Groundwater Salinity and Predicting its Effects for the Next Three Decades: A Case Study of Bahadoran Plain, Yazd Province

In recent years, climatic changes have affected many parts of Iran especially central parts and amplifiyed drought occurring and intensity. Bahadoran plain is one of these regions in which frequent droughts have changed the quality and quantity of its water resources. This research aims to analyze the effects of the last decade droughts on groundwater salinity of Bahadoran plain and forecast its effects for a 30-year period in the future. The current condition as well as the climate change in the future (2012 to 2041) were investigated using GCMs (HadCM3 model). Temperature, precipitation and SPI drought index for the next 30 years are used to analyse dry, humid and normal years. Then, water salinity data of the region's wells is used to determine the trends for the current and future periods. The results showed that even if no change occurs in quantity of extracted water from the region's wells in the future is assumed, due to climate change the groundwater quality will change. It will fluctuate between 1 and 2 DS m in different years which can affect many aspects of groundwater consumption in the region e.g. drinking, livestock, agriculture, environment, natural resources, etc.