Forecasting Changes in Agricultural Employment Rate in Gilan Province Using Some Economic Indicators

The overall aim of the present study was to estimate the time series of agricultural employment in the Gilan province during the years 1355- 90 and modeling and forecasting employment using artificial neural networks for years 1391-98. For this purpose, employment series calculated by interpolation and input variables selected based on previous theoretical and empirical research. Finally, number of agricultural work force predicted through designing and training of different neural networks architectures. Required data obtained through population and housing report of 1355 to 1390 and provincial statistical year books. Results showed that number of employees during the period from 1391 to 1393 will be lower than in 1390 and then during 1394 to 1398 will be increased. Due to lack of time series data of economic variables at the regional level, this research is an essential and primary step to achieve reliable statistics of number of agricultural employment at provincial level that Provide required data for future studies on labor market and can be used for planning and policy making by related authorities.