Introducing an appropriate forecasting system to estimate the treatment demand at Imam Reza hospital of Urmia
Author(s):
Abstract:
The hospitals are responsible for maintaining the health of the population and devote himself a large part of health expenditure. Evidence shows that there is a vast prospect to improve and promote hospitals resources (financial and human). Awareness of the amount of future demand highly ensures optimal management of resources and quality of services in the health field. The aim of this study is to investigate the linear (ARIMA) and nonlinear (neural network MLP) models to estimate the treatment demand at Imam Reza hospital of Urmia, using data at different time intervals such as daily, weekly and monthly in different sections of the hospital. The results of this study indicate that ANN MLP nonlinear model has a good performance in predicting treatment demand and it is capable to provide more accurate forecasts than ARIMA model. Neural network MLP model with an average error of 24.96% compared to ARIMA model with an average error of 26.73% has a high predictive power. Also the estimation results of pediatric ward indicate that the ARIMA model compared to Neural network MLP model has more predictive power, the reason for this inconsistency with research hypotheses must be sought in low variance of this section.
Keywords:
Language:
Persian
Published:
Quarterly Journal of Applied Economics Studiesin Iran, Volume:4 Issue: 16, 2016
Pages:
205 to 232
magiran.com/p1505120
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یکساله به مبلغ 1,390,000ريال میتوانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
توجه!
- حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران میشود.
- پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانههای چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمیدهد.
In order to view content subscription is required
Personal subscription
Subscribe magiran.com for 70 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!