Futures study; presenting future image of organization using scenario planning: A study on Statistical Center of Iran

Futures study is relatively a new area of research that its territory covers all spheres of human theoretical knowledge, and its results could have a broad impact on human scientific efforts. However, predictions about futures may result in wrong prognosis, but this should not discontinue the scientific efforts for future researches. Scenario planning is a method for improving decision making in the face of possible and probable futures. It is an effective method for futures study that enables planners to examine the likelihood of occurrence for future happenings and forecast what happenings are unlikely to take place. The purpose of this study is to provide a futuristic image of Statistical Center of Iran in the year 1400. In this futures study, we applied a Scenario planning method using the Schwart’s model of 1991. The result shows there are four main future scenarios for organizational structure of Statistical Center of Iran. These scenarios are in the form of "An independent Public agency", "A centralized public agency", "An affiliated public agency" and "A coordinating public agency ". The four images presented in this research could shape the vision and strategic planning of SCI.