Presenting and Implementing a New Model for Scenario Building in Regional Plannings

Scenario planning is one of the appropriate tools for the strategic planning in uncertain circumstances and when tomorrow’s world is full of various wildcards. The present study has focused on developing and implementing a model for preparing development scenarios of Mazandaran Province in horizon 1410 with a systematic approach. Chain combined methodology was developed to perform the study. Data collecting was mainly based on documentary and Delphi model. Also, cross-impact analysis are used to analyze data by use of MICMAC software and morphologic method are used for analyzing and preparing scenarios by using Morphol software. The results revealed the evolution of key capabilities of Mazandaran province in horizon 1410. In all of the first four scenarios, the presumption of gradual decrease in crops because of changes in land use (especially in western areas) has been emerged which is considered as a serious and key threat for Mazandaran Province specifically for areas near the western areas of the province. Another important result was the coming out of presumption of “over %30 of exchanges growth of Feridoonkenar port” seen as an effective factor in province development, which is able to create a strong development pole in areas towards the geographical center of the province. In tourism sector of the first four scenarios, the optimistic presumption of “development of tourism infrastructure in the west of province and take initial steps for regional branding in transnational scale” has appeared which hoped that development conditions in the west areas of the province would be improved.