Current and future potential distribution of maize chlorotic mottle virus and risk of maize lethal necrosis disease in Africa

Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN), caused by the synergistic effect of maize chlorotic mottle virus (MCMV; Tombusviridae: Machlomovirus) and any potyvirus, has the potential to devastate maize production across Africa. Since the first report in Kenya in 2011, MLN has spread to Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and probably other surrounding countries. To understand the spatiotemporal distribution of MCMV and MLN risk in Africa, we developed ecological niche models using a genetic algorithm (GARP). Model inputs included climatic data (temperature and rainfall) and known detections of MCMV and MLN across Africa. Model performances were more statistically significant (p