The Role of Road Crashes on the Growth of Value Added in Transport Sector

Crashes, in addition to playing a major role in health effect, impose many direct and indirect costs to the society. The problem is more prevalent in developing countries, such that crashes account for a primary cause of death. This papers aims to study the impact of road crashes on the increase of the value added of the transport sector between 1393-1369.
The impact of road crashes on the increase of the value added of the transport sector is modeled using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model though Microfit and Eviews softwares. To study stationarity and co-integrity of variables, the order of cointegration of variables, and then the optimal lags, is determined. In the next step, the number of co-integration vectors of the model is determined; consequently the optimal model is deduced. Variance decomposition of the forecast error method is used to study explanatory power of the variations of the number of road crashes on the value added of transportation.
The results of estimating the model indicates that one percent increase in the number of accidents, decreases the growth rate of value added of the transport sector by 0.054 percentage point. Furthermore, in the long term, first the logarithm of the labor and then the logarithm of crashes of the road transport sector have the most ability to explain the growth of value added of the transport sector of the state.
The results of this paper indicates that in the long run crashes negatively impact on the growth of value added of the transport sector.