The Role of Peace Index in improving tourism demand forecasting using barometric techniques

It is important for destinations’ managers and businesses to forecaste short-term and long-term tourism demand. Only in case of an accurate estimation of tourism demand, it is possiblae to prevent of the waste of resources and to plan supply of tourism products according to demand. Most studies on tourism demand forecasting apply qualitative and quantitative methods. This study aims to introduce barometric techniques using Active Peace Index, in order to improve current forecastings of tourisn trends in destinations. In this study, we show that using Peace Index, barometric techniques have more accurate information on Trade cycles. Thefore, applying barometric technique alongwith other forecasting methods, could add value to the results of freacasting. can increase the reliability of forecasts.