The Economic - Environmental Macro Feedbacks of Population Increase Policy Adoption in Iran

In this study we investigated the impacts of population increase on life quality, with a special focus on its impact on the natural resources and environmental issues. This analysis was conducted using data over a 16 year period. Since water is one of the most important factors contributing to the growth and development of countries, the increase in population size, industry sector growth, urbanization expansion, changes in lifestyle and the need for sustainable food security, alongside reducing water resources and mismanagement have all attributed to turning water scarcity into a serious crisis. Therefore, in this study the relationship between population increase and water crisis is explained using the Bayesian network causal. The effects of such a crisis on the economic macro variables and indicators were also investigated. The results indicate that the water crisis will be more intense as the population growth rate increases. The economic consequences of water crisis include increase in inflation rate, unemployment and the decrease in economic growth. Also, the only social consequence is reduction in access to clean and healthy water. Therefore, considering the environmental aspects such as water scarcity, air pollution and global warming, the population policies in macro level must be taken into account that have no negative consequences on national natural resources and environment.