Prefigure and Pre-arranged Scenario for Neighborhood development Planning with Systemic analysis the study Sanglaj Tehran neighborhood

Since the city is a dynamic complex system and it has many uncertainties, can not be expected to schedule for that only by rational approach and based on linear processes. This study used a system analysis with an emphasis on the need to identify the factors influencing the system, seek to understand and extract the structure of the system for development planning at the neighborhood level. In terms of methodology, the study of cognitive research. Data, including library data and documents and data related to the perception of residents and decision-makers. Using cross-impact analysis on the basis of important factors and uncertainties, examined the association of these factors with the development of the neighborhood. The results showed that, among the 30 factors examined, four trans-local roles and functions of Sanglaj and lack of incentives for burnout section's repairment, insecurity and lack of space for community recreation and social services for spending leisure time of residents have the highest impact and effectiveness on the system. These factors form the main axes of development scenarios neighborhood Sanglaj form. The authors of this article believe that the process outlined in this study a high degree of realism, responsiveness and flexibility compared to the current process of strategic planning on offering alternatives subjective and without considering the context and the key factors affecting structures and guidess impact on the environment is planned.