The Economic Value Of Weather Forecast For Northern Sea Activities

Weather forecast and its accuracy plays an important role in maritime activities. Caspian Sea as one of the most complex seas of the storm, and as the site of many maritime activities in the north of country, requires management in doing optimized maritime activities in the area of sea training. Seafarers are expected to be convinced about the accuracy of the received forecasts. Or in other words they expect to be able to compare the performance of different forecasting systems to improve maritime activities and increase economic efficiency in areas besides the sea. This study evaluated the meteorological models in predicting climate in the country's north coast and the economic aspects of them. The output of the model used for a period of 24, 48 and 72 hours and observation data of rainfall was received from measurements of synoptic and rain-gauge stations in Golestan province. The results showed that the model's predictions about the presence or absence of rainfall in the period under study, were correct in about 80% of cases. Also in the 24-hour anticipation, maximum amount of economic value for the cost – loss ratio is 73%, i.e. if the user use the prediction he can save more than 73% of his cost.