Estimated interactions between exports and economic growth through the strengthening of quantitative and qualitative inputs, approaches to MS-VAR

There are two major views on the subject of the relationship between the development of non-oil exports and economic growth. In first opinion, non-oil exports leads to economic growth through the increase quality of inputs. In second opinion, economic growth will be increased non-oil exports through strengthening quantitative inputs. In non-linear models there are the ability to calculate relationship between variables and causal variables in different regimes. For this reason non-linear causality models can have better results than linear causality models. For this purpose in this study using a Markov switching model to investigate non-linear causal relationship between economic growth and non-oil export series in the years 1972-2011. The results indicate that in first regime (high growth) and second regime (low economic growth), there is no causality between exports and economic growth. The reason is lack of sufficient attention to production of other economic sectors during the oil boom. As a result, it causes the weakening of production, reduce of domestic production and international competitive power in order to reduce the share of exports of goods and services in economic growth.