Modeling and Identification of Effective Factors on the Establishment of Ecotourism in Javanrud County by Using Classification Tree

Study of environmental conditions in appropriate regions for deployment of tourists in natural fields which is result of their active role in selected areas, is very to achieve the sustainable development planning of these areas.
appetence’s, preferences and even culture to use of the natural district. In this regard, to investigate factors that influence the deployment of tourists in Javanrud County, effective variables and classification tree were used. 300 presence points of tourists during the year 2016-2017 were observed and recorded. Then, variables that affect deployment including altitude, distance from city, distance from village, slope, roughness, distance from main road, distance from service centers and recreational, distance from dense forests and semi-intensive and distance from springs were used. Model validation was performed by using statistical analysis Roc and identification of threshold by conducting Youden test.
Results of model validation confirmed the model implementation (AUC=0.831). Based on the results of model’s sensitivity analysis, distance from city and main roads variables have the most effect on deployment of areas. A range equal to 5194 hectares of county for establishment of ecotourism has been evaluated as suitable. For most of County tourists, visiting of main markets of county is the primary goal and spending leisure time in surrounding natural environment of city is the second goal.
Results of this study specify need to evaluate the compliance of the current establishment areas of ecotourism and their activities with appropriate conditions from the perspective of land use planning.