Study of relationship between food security, urban population and development plans in Iran

Urban population growth (non-agricultural population) in developing countries has challenged the food security of urban households. The precise demographic definition of urbanization is the increasing share of a nation's population living in urban areas (and thus a declining share living in rural areas). Mostly, urbanization is the result of net rural to urban migration. We investigated the food security among urban households and the effects and various factors involved for the period of 1983 to 2012. Results showed that during this period the food security of urban households had an increasing trend. Despite the enhancement of food security among urban households, 5.6 percent of the urban populations received less than necessary kilojoules level in 2012, role factors were evaluated as well using time series pattern after estimation of urban household's aggregate food security index (AHFSI). Results showed that effect lag variable of aggregate food security index changes on growth of aggregate food security index in the next year will be significantly negative (at 1% level). These results exhibited that with increase in one-unit growth of food security index in one year, it would decrease by 0.008 units the next year. Every one percent increase of people receiving less than standard energy level will decrease the growth of food security index by 0.009 units. This finding is significant at 10 percent level. Nevertheless, the 1st to 3rd five-year development plans showed more growths on food security indices in comparison with the 4th development plan. Furthermore, the second development plan showed the maximum increase of food security index in comparison with the 4th development plan. Based on the results, the constant and steadily increasing trend of the food security index should be considered as a priority in the future development plans.